Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) has a commanding lead in his primary, according to a poll conducted by the Club for Growth, which is backing the congressman.
Partisan polls, especially ones conducted just on one day, should always be viewed with some skepticism. But a 48-point lead is a huge gap for Ellis to overcome between now and the Aug. 5 primary.
The Club endorsed the libertarian-minded congressman shortly after Ellis entered the race and has been running ads attacking Ellis in the district. The poll shows they've had an impact: Ellis's favorable rating is just 8 percent, and his unfavorable rating sits at 21 percent.
The Chamber of Commerce indicated when Ellis launched his campaign that it would help target Amash. But so far, the congressman has had more outside support in the race and has much more cash in the bank, with $730,000 to Ellis's $340,000.
The live-caller poll of 300 likely Republican primary voters with a history of voting in GOP primaries was conducted by Basswood Research on Feb. 6. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent.