The Pew Research Center has new numbers out showing what many campaign operatives already know: Republicans are more reliable voters, a major problem for Democrats heading into this fall’s midterms.

Pew breaks down voters into eight different categories, with the most likely to vote being “steadfast conservatives,” “business conservatives” and “solid liberals.” The two conservative blocs outnumber the liberals by 22 percent to 15 percent in the survey, but by a whopping 36 percent to 21 percent for the most engaged voters.

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They’re much more likely to vote than the other Democratic-leaning groups that President Obama built his coalition on, including the “faith and family left,” a more racially diverse, religious group, and the “next generation left” of millennial liberals, who make up 27 percent of the population but just 23 percent of likely voters.

It’s no wonder why Democrats are spending so much time and money on field operations this election. In close races, they’re going to need to unearth every voter they can find.

The poll also shows how few Americans are paying close attention to Congress — just four in 10 can correctly identify which party controls both chambers.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

SENATE ADS: VoteVets announced a more than $600,000 television ad buy in three states for next week, offering support to Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce BraleyTrump: Ernst wanted 'more seasoning' before entertaining VP offer Criminal sentencing bill tests McConnell-Grassley relationship Trump's VP list shrinks MORE (D-Iowa) and Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and praising their efforts to free the country from foreign oil. The group also praises Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) in the Iowa spot, but slams Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) for voting against troop raises while supporting tax breaks for for big oil. 

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) has gained a slight lead over Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellThe Hill's 12:30 Report Poll: Most say Trump will change DC Reid bids farewell to the Senate MORE, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. The poll shows Grimes ahead of McConnell by 2 percentage points, with 41 percent of voters saying they felt strongly about voting for Grimes if the election were today.

SC-SEN (GRAHAM): Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey GrahamOvernight Cybersecurity: Retired general picked to head DHS | Graham vows to probe Russian election interference Overnight Tech: AT&T, Time Warner CEOs defend merger before Congress | More tech execs join Trump team | Republican details path to undoing net neutrality Overnight Finance: Trump blasts Carrier's union leader | What's in the spending bill | Jamie Dimon gets perch for Trump era | AT&T, Time Warner execs grilled MORE (R-S.C.) could face an independent challenge in the fall from reality television star and former South Carolina state treasurer Thomas Ravenel (R). Ravenel, the son of a former congressman, needs 10,000 signatures to make the ballot. 

HI-SEN (SCHATZ): Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) is out with a new ad touting President Obama's endorsement in his battle against Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Hawaii).

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): A new SurveyUSA poll has Sen. Pat RobertsPat RobertsSenate GOP to Obama: Stop issuing new rules GOP debates going big on tax reform Memo to the LGBT community: Donald Trump is not your enemy MORE (R-Kan.) easily topping primary challenger Milton Wolf (R) by a 2-1 margin. Roberts would also defeat the Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, by 43 to 33 percent, with 12 percent of voters supporting third-party candidates and another 12 percent undecided, according to the poll.

ME-SEN (COLLINS): Sen. Susan CollinsSusan CollinsDems, greens gear up for fight against Trump EPA pick Medicare looms over Trump-Ryan alliance Senators crafting bill to limit deportations under Trump MORE (R-Maine) became the fourth senator in the Republican Party to publicly support same-sex marriage. Collins announced her support in an interview with the Bangor Daily News on Wednesday, shortly after receiving the endorsement of the Human Rights Campaign.

TN-SEN (ALEXANDER): Sen. Lamar AlexanderLamar AlexanderReid bids farewell to the Senate Reid defends relationship with McConnell in farewell speech Senate sends far-ranging medical cures bill to Obama's desk MORE (R-Tenn.) received the support of former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) Thursday. In a statement released by Alexander’s campaign, Gingrich praised Alexander’s “experience and shrewdness” as necessary to “fix Washington.”

Gingrich’s endorsement comes on the same day Alexander was slammed by his primary opponent, Joe Carr, in the first television ad of his campaign. The ad attacks Alexander for supporting immigration reform and presents Carr as a “no amnesty” candidate. 

GA-SEN (OPEN): An internal poll for David Perdue’s (R) campaign shows the businessman leading Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.) by 45 percent to 44 percent. Perdue’s internal poll follows several public polls and an internal Kingston poll that found the congressman ahead in the race.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

CA-31 (OPEN): Republican Lesli Gooch has decided to give up on a recount in her race for the 31st District seat. Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) narrowly defeated Gooch in the district’s all-party primary and will face Republican Paul Chabot in the fall in the race to fill retiring Rep. Gary Miller’s (R-Calif.) seat. 

TX-23 (GALLEGO): Concerned Veterans for America hit Rep. Pete GallegoPete P. GallegoVulnerable Texas GOP lawmaker survives rematch 5 races for tech to watch Vulnerable House freshmen passed most bills in decades, analysis finds MORE (D-Texas) with a new ad, charging that Gallego knew about the problems veterans faced but “did nothing to fix it.” The ad urges viewers to tell Gallego to “fight for our veterans” and “hold the VA accountable.”

MN-8 (NOLAN): Rep. Rick Nolan’s (D-Minn.) challenger, Stewart Mills, (R) debuted a new ad Wednesday hoping to win over women voters by touting his work with the Walk a Mile in Her Shoes charity. The positive spot features Mills’s wife describing her husband’s participation in the charity each year as “one of the strongest things he does.” 

NY-13 (RANGEL): A day after the 13th District race was called for Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.), opponent Adriano Espaillat (D) conceded to the congressman. Rangel declared victory Tuesday night with an 1,800 ballot lead, despite thousands of mail ballots still needing to be counted. The Associated Press called the race for Rangel on Wednesday. In his concession speech, Espaillat also announced his reelection campaign for the New York state senate. 

MI-11 (BENTIVOLIO): Rep. Kerry BentivolioKerry BentivolioIndiana Republican: Leaders duped me Reindeer farmer saves 'cromnibus' with yes vote High drama as .1T spending package advances by one vote MORE’s (R-Mich.) primary challenger, Dave Trott, picked up the endorsement of The Detroit News on Thursday. The newspaper charged that “Bentivolio has never been right for this district” and hailed Trott as “bright, forceful and committed to public service.” 

 

2016 WATCH

BUSH: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) will host a fundraiser in mid-September for crucial GOP Senate candidates, The Wall Street Journal reports. The candidates included in the fundraiser are Reps. Tom CottonTom CottonArk., Texas senators put cheese dip vs. queso to the test Overnight Defense: Debate over Mattis heats up | White House releases military force rules Senate GOP to Obama: Stop issuing new rules MORE (R-Ark.) and Cory GardnerCory GardnerGOP senator: Congress will ‘undo the damage’ from Obama Senate GOP to Obama: Stop issuing new rules Gardner's chief of staff tapped for Senate GOP campaign director MORE (R-Colo.), state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Oregon Senate nominee Monica Wehby (R). Bush has held fundraisers for other influential Republican candidates this cycle, and it is speculated whether his increased involvement could indicate a potential 2016 presidential run.

CLINTON: Former Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), famous for his “legitimate rape” comments, attacked former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonReid: Trump 'not as bad as I thought he would be' Colbert unloads on fake news conspiracy theorists: 'Grow the f--- up' The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE, accusing her of waging an “incredibly hypocritical” war on women “when she once got a child rapist off the hook who she knew to be guilty, and laughed about how she did it when interviewed.”

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

"Any growing interest in soccer can only be a sign of the nation's moral decay." — conservative talking head Ann Coulter in an op-ed