Election Day may still be about two weeks away, but voters have already begun to head to the polls.

Per figures compiled by elections expert Michael McDonald, 1.9 million people have already cast a ballot in the midterms. 

Both parties will be watching the early vote carefully for clues as to where they stand this cycle. Republicans say their enthusiasm advantage plus their beefed-up mobilization efforts will reap serious benefits in the early votes. Democrats, meanwhile, are claiming their efforts to build off already substantial ground operations in some key states will help them come out on top in the early vote.

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Watch Iowa and Colorado as particular indicators of how Democrats are doing. In those two presidential swing states, Democrats started with an operational advantage, so if their claims are true, they should end up ahead in the early vote.

While politicians like to repeat that "the only poll that matters is on Election Day," the votes coming in for weeks prior matter, too.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

OBAMAS: First lady Michelle ObamaMichelle LeVaughn Robinson ObamaObama to host global summit in Chicago Kelly Clarkson says new song 'Go High' inspired by Michelle Obama Michelle Obama outshines all Democratic prospects for 2020 MORE is stepping up as a major surrogate for Democratic campaigns, returning to Iowa to help Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce BraleyOPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP Ten years later, House Dems reunite and look forward Trump: Ernst wanted 'more seasoning' before entertaining VP offer MORE (D-Iowa) and swinging by to help Sens. Al FrankenAlan (Al) Stuart FrankenGOP eying 'blue slip' break to help Trump fill the courts Overnight Regulation: FTC launches probe into Equifax | Dems propose tougher data security rules | NYC aims to slash greenhouse gas emissions | EPA to reconsider Obama coal ash rule Overnight Cybersecurity: Kaspersky to testify before House | US sanctions Iranians over cyberattacks | Equifax reveals flaw that led to hack MORE (D-Minn.) and Mark UdallMark UdallDemocratic primary could upend bid for Colorado seat Picking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Gorsuch's critics, running out of arguments, falsely scream 'sexist' MORE (D-Colo.).

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has reserved $2 million in airtime for a December runoff election, an indication the party expects Sen. Mary LandrieuMary LandrieuCNN producer on new O'Keefe video: Voters are 'stupid,' Trump is 'crazy' CNN's Van Jones: O'Keefe Russia 'nothingburger' video 'a hoax' Trump posts O'Keefe videos on Instagram MORE (D-La.) will not win an outright victory on Nov. 4.

The anti-abortion-rights group Susan B. Anthony List endorsed Landrieu’s Republican challenger, Rep. Bill Cassidy.

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Former President Clinton is slated to campaign for Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in the state on Tuesday. Grimes drew scrutiny on Monday for her family's restaurant business, which pays some workers a minimum wage that Grimes has criticized on the campaign trail. Asked about the discrepancy, Grimes told CNN, "my family is not in this race."

Sen. Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate passes 0B defense bill Overnight Health Care: New GOP ObamaCare repeal bill gains momentum Overnight Finance: CBO to release limited analysis of ObamaCare repeal bill | DOJ investigates Equifax stock sales | House weighs tougher rules for banks dealing with North Korea MORE (R-Ky.), meanwhile, is offering volunteers all-expenses-paid trips to fill out his bus tour.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): The photos of sunflowers that adorn many of Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsNo. 2 Senate Republican backs McConnell in Trump fight Overnight Healthcare: McConnell warns Senate not to block repeal debate | Insurers knock Cruz proposal | WH tries to discredit CBO | Lawmakers propose .1B NIH funding boost Trump: I’ll be ‘very angry’ if Senate doesn’t pass ObamaCare repeal bill MORE’s campaign graphics were actually taken in Ukraine, not Kansas.

GA-SEN (OPEN): Former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) points out that a picture of her and President Obama used in Republican attack ads was taken while they were both with her old boss, former President George H.W. Bush, in a new ad. Bush isn’t happy that he’s in another Nunn ad.

N.H.-SEN (SHAHEEN): Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenSenate Dems hold floor talk-a-thon against latest ObamaCare repeal bill Trump bets base will stick with him on immigration Dems call for action against Cassidy-Graham ObamaCare repeal MORE (D-Mass.) is heading north to New Hampshire to rally Democratic voters against her old rival, former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), in his race for Senate.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

CA-52 (PETERS): Under fire amid sexual harassment allegations, GOP House candidate Carl DeMaio is saying Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) is behind the "outrageous, despicable, disgraceful, unethical" claims against him.

Peters admitted his campaign received a copy of DeMaio’s campaign memo after DeMaio’s office was broken into, but said it immediately turned it over to the police after realizing what it was.

SC-6 (CLYBURN): Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D) GOP opponent came under fire for calling gay couples “gremlins” and gay marriage “a pestilence.”

MA-6 (OPEN): The Boston Globe reports that Democrat Seth Moulton received two military medals for his service in Iraq. 

ME-2 (OPEN): The National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling resources from a once-competitive House district in Maine to spend the money on more promising opportunities elsewhere, a committee aide confirmed to The Hill.

FL-2 (SOUTHERLAND): Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioOvernight Defense: Senate passes 0B defense bill | 3,000 US troops heading to Afghanistan | Two more Navy officials fired over ship collisions Senate passes 0B defense bill Trump bets base will stick with him on immigration MORE (R-Fla.) will appear at a campaign rally for Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Jimmy Buffett will appear at a rally for Democrat Gwen Graham on Wednesday.

NY-24 (MAFFEI): Vice President Biden campaigned for Rep. Dan Maffei (D) on Monday.

 

AD WATCH

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Crossroads GPS says that while “the name Pryor stood for independence,” Sen. Mark PryorMark PryorMedicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 Cotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm MORE (D-Ark.) is “just another vote for Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaGOP rep: North Korea wants Iran-type nuclear deal Dems fear lasting damage from Clinton-Sanders fight Iran's president warns US will pay 'high cost' if Trump ditches nuclear deal MORE,” targeting one-time supporters of Pryor and his father, Sen. David Pryor (D-Ark.). 

The DSCC says voters “can’t trust” Rep. Tom CottonTom CottonOvernight Defense: Senate passes 0B defense bill | 3,000 US troops heading to Afghanistan | Two more Navy officials fired over ship collisions Lawmakers grapple with warrantless wiretapping program Senate passes 0B defense bill MORE (R-Ark.) on Medicare and Social Security.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Sen. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenWeek ahead: Crunch time for defense bill’s cyber reforms | Equifax under scrutiny Five things to know about the Kaspersky-Russia controversy DHS bans Kaspersky software in federal agencies MORE (D) frames Republican Scott Brown as being in the pocket of the oil industry and Wall Street, rather than committed to New Hampshire. Brown, meanwhile, launched a 15-second ad accusing Shaheen of voting to open the door to a national energy tax.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Rep. Paul RyanPaul RyanRyan: Graham-Cassidy 'best, last chance' to repeal ObamaCare Ryan: Americans want to see Trump talking with Dem leaders Overnight Finance: CBO to release limited analysis of ObamaCare repeal bill | DOJ investigates Equifax stock sales | House weighs tougher rules for banks dealing with North Korea MORE (R-Wis.) cut a robocall for Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), telling voters to "say no to the liberal Obama-Reid agenda" by voting for the incumbent.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): American Crossroads says Sen. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichPerez creates advisory team for DNC transition The future of the Arctic 2016’s battle for the Senate: A shifting map MORE (D-Alaska) has failed to open up ANWR drilling in a new ad.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): The DSCC has a new ad out hitting North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis for voting to defund Planned Parenthood and charges that North Carolina women can’t trust him.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) released a new radio ad defending his mayoral record in Anchorage, firing back on attacks from GOP outside groups.

AR-2 (OPEN): American Crossroads hits former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays (D) on ObamaCare in a new ad.

FL-2 (SOUTHERLAND): Rep. Steve Southerland touts his support from women in a new ad that includes his four daughters, his wife, his sister and his mother. 

MA-6 (OPEN): Democrat Seth Moulton released a Web ad in which he interviews kids about what's wrong with Congress and how to fix it.

AK-AL (YOUNG): Sen. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiSenate Dems hold floor talk-a-thon against latest ObamaCare repeal bill Collins skeptical of new ObamaCare repeal effort How Senate relationships could decide ObamaCare repeal MORE (R-Alaska) endorsed Rep. Don YoungDon YoungHouse Republican causes stir claiming female lawmaker 'doesn’t know a damn thing' Alaska lobbies for defense boost after North Korea launch Puerto Rico statehood bid a total failure MORE (R-Alaska) in a new ad for Young’s campaign.

OUTSIDE GROUPS: The Democratic-tied House Majority PAC is out with new ads attacking the opponents of Reps. John Barrow (D-Ga.), Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.), Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.), Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) and Republicans in open seats in Iowa and Massachusetts.

 

POLL POSITION

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay HaganKay HaganLinking repatriation to job creation Former Sen. Kay Hagan in ICU after being rushed to hospital GOP senator floats retiring over gridlock MORE (D-N.C.) has maintained a narrow lead against North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R), according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling. Hagan leads Tillis 46 percent to 43 percent with libertarian Sean Haugh at 5 percent support in the automated poll.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): A Monmouth University Poll shows Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) tied with independent challenger Greg Orman, each taking 46 percent support among likely voters.

MA-6 (OPEN): A new poll commissioned by the DCCC Friday shows that Seth Moulton (D-Mass) has a large lead over former state Sen. Richard Tisei (R), 46 percent to 34 percent.

MT-SEN (OPEN) / MT-AL (OPEN): Rep. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) leads Democrat Amanda Curtis 47 percent to 31 percent in a new poll conducted by Montana State University-Billings. Republican Ryan Zinke leads Democrat John Lewis 40 percent to 33 percent in the race for Daines’s open at-large seat. 

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): A Boston Herald/Suffolk University Poll found Republican Scott Brown closing the gap with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), taking 46 percent to the incumbent's 49 percent support among registered voters.

CA-17 (HONDA): Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) has a narrow 37 percent to 35 percent lead over challenger Ro Khanna (D) in a new automated Survey USA poll conducted for KPIX.

 

FUNDRAISING FIGURES

NRCC/DCCC: The NRCC again fell short of its Democratic counterpart, raising $11 million in the month of September, compared to Democrats’ $16.7 million.

CO-SEN (UDALL): Rep. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerGOP senator calls on China, 20 other countries to cut ties with North Korea Week ahead: Crunch time for defense bill’s cyber reforms | Equifax under scrutiny It is time to make domestic terrorism a federal crime MORE (R) raised $1.28 million in the first two weeks of October and had $1.87 million cash on hand as of Oct. 15.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

SANTORUM: Rick Santorum is headed back to Iowa on Wednesday and Thursday to appear at a fundraiser for Rep. Steve King (R) and various local GOP events.

HUCKABEE: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) will campaign for Iowa GOP Senate candidate Joni Ernst and Nebraska Republican gubernatorial candidate Pete Ricketts on Tuesday.

CRUZ: Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate Dems hold floor talk-a-thon against latest ObamaCare repeal bill Overnight Finance: CBO to release limited analysis of ObamaCare repeal bill | DOJ investigates Equifax stock sales | House weighs tougher rules for banks dealing with North Korea GOP state lawmakers meet to plan possible constitutional convention MORE (R-Texas) wrote in a USA Today op-ed that he believes the GOP will win the White House in 2016 and repeal ObamaCare. 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

"Same sex couples that seek to destroy our way of life and the institution of marriage are NOT cute and cuddly but rather (for those of you that are old enough to remember the movie), Gremlins that will only destroy our way of life."

—Anthony Culler, a South Carolina Republican that seeks to unseat longtime Rep. James Clyburn, in a Facebook post opposing gay marriage