Donald TrumpDonald TrumpHouse Republican group raised more than M in October Five takeaways from Florida Senate debate Chaffetz says he'll vote for Trump MORE and Ted CruzTed CruzCruz: Precedent exists for keeping Supreme Court short-staffed Commerce official will hit critics of domain name transition The media is rigging the election by reporting WikiLeaks emails MORE are locked in a tight battle among Iowa Republicans, but the billionaire media mogul continues to dominate in New Hampshire, a new poll found.
According to a NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Marist survey released on Sunday, the Texas senator takes 28 percent support in Iowa, edging Trump, who sits at 24 percent support. That’s within the poll’s 4.8 percentage point margin of error, and in line with other recent polls.
However, when the poll considers all potential Republican caucus-goers, and not just likely caucus-goers, Trump pulls ahead of Cruz, 26 to 24. Trump is relying heavily on the support of voters who have not participated in the political process in the past, leading many analysts to predict that he’ll underperform on voting day.
Still, many analysts are predicting record turnout at the GOP caucuses on Feb. 1, which could benefit Trump.
Sen. Marco RubioMarco RubioFive takeaways from Florida Senate debate The Trail 2016: Comeback in the works? US abstains from UN resolution on Cuba embargo for first time MORE (R-Fla.) is a distant third place in Iowa with 13 percent support, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is in fourth place at 11 percent.
Every other GOP candidate takes 5 percent support or less in Iowa.
In New Hampshire, the race isn’t nearly as close. Trump has opened up a more than two-to-one lead over the next closest contender, and takes 30 percent support in the poll.
Rubio is in second place at 14 percent, leading among a cluster of second-tier candidates in the state that includes New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12 percent, Cruz at 10 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 9 percent each.
The poll of 456 likely caucus goers in Iowa has 4.6 percentage point margin of error. The poll of 569 likely primary voters in New Hampshire has a 4.1 percentage point margin of error.