TOP OF THE BALLOT TODAY: Conway closes in on Mongiardo in Kentucky Democratic Senate primary; Senate campaign chief sends signals to Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist; Election Day in Florida and Texas; and a new poll in New York state.
Crunch time in Kentucky: Dem primary becomes dead heat
Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway has closed the gap on Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, and their May 18 Democratic Senate primary is now a dead heat, according to a new SurveyUSA poll of the race.
While the GOP primary remains firmly in Rand Paul’s control, Conway has cut into Mongiardo’s lead and now trails just 35-32 – after trailing 45-27 last month.
Conway’s campaign has questioned Mongiardo’s use of taxpayer money on his travel expenses and housing allowance.
The Republican primary is still a 15-point race, with Paul leading Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson 45-30. The race has remained largely static in recent months, but with just more than one month left to go, it’s starting to become panic time for Team Grayson.
Cornyn nudges Crist on education bill
The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) endorsement of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has turned out to be a liability for the committee and candidate this year, and it’s hard to see what either side has gotten out of the arrangement.
But now, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas) is trying to help Crist in another way, by subtly pushing him against vetoing a Florida education bill that the governor has been waffling on.
Cornyn took to his Facebook page to weigh in on the bill, and he comes down squarely in favor of the governor signing it.
TOP OF THE BALLOT: Wrapping up the Southern Republican Leadership Conference; GOP candidate Sue Lowden asserts herself in Nevada; Dem candidate Alexi Giannoulias tries to change the subject in Illinois; and more details on the NRCC's ad buy in Pennsylvania.
Winners and losers in New Orleans
The Southern Republican Leadership Conference concluded Sunday, and with the benefit of 24 hours of reflection time, here are The Ballot Box winners and losers from the first big 2012 cattle call:
Winners
-Mitt Romney: The emerging GOP frontrunner won the straw poll despite not showing up or even appearing in a video (ala Tim Pawlenty), and he far outpaced the headliner for the weekend, Sarah Palin. Romney’s one-vote win over Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) is a big statement about his organization.
And today we learn, according to The Fix, that Romney’s political action committee, Free and Strong America PAC, outraised Pawlenty’s PAC $1.45 million to $566,000 in the first quarter. No word on numbers from Palin’s PAC.
-Texas Gov. Rick Perry: The emerging political force that is Rick Perry gave one of the most stirring speeches of the weekend, contrasting himself well with other potential 2012 contenders like Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. If Perry can make it past his 2010 reelection campaign, expect plenty of buzz around his national aspirations – of which he says he has none.
-2010: While the subtext of the weekend was the 2012 GOP presidential contest, the party leaders’ focus on the midterms this year was notable. Perhaps they’ve learned from experience. With so much 2008 talk at the event four years ago, the GOP wound up wounding itself horribly in the 2006 midterms, leaving it reeling heading into 2008.
Read more...
Top of the ballot Wednesday: Republicans get mileage out of hitting back at RNC; Specter still solid in primary; DCCC up with ad in Hawaii special.
The RNC becomes a punching bag
Republicans are starting to use their party's woes to score political points.
In New Hampshire Republican National Committeeman and likely congressional candidate Sean Mahoney has angrily resigned his position with the committee and is putting the issue front-and-center in his campaign.
Mahoney will use the controversy surrounding the reimbursement at a bondage-themed nightclub to cast himself as an outsider looking to reform the party. He’s set to join a primary against Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta and businessman Rich Ashooh, among others, with the winner facing Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.).
"Not only has the out-of-touch, free-spending culture of Washington come to completely dominate the United States Congress, but I have watched with growing unease as the same mentality has seeped into our own national party," Mahoney wrote in his resignation letter.
A little further South, porn star Stormy Daniels used the RNC scandal to announce that, if she runs against Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), it will be in the GOP primary.
“It is time again to inspire positive risks and out-of-the-box thinking in the interest of growing a strong economy and a strong America,” Daniels said in a sly statement. “For me, this spirit can be summed up in the RNC’s investment of donor funds at Voyeur.”
Viewing Daniels’s candidacy as anything more than a political stunt takes some doing (especially when her spokesman is a well-known Democratic operative), but it has gotten attention and – more importantly – drawn attention to Vitter’s previous relationship with a prostitute.
Look for other candidates to add their two cents in the coming hours and days – especially after GOP operative Alex Castellanos’s damaging shots at Steele Tuesday. Some, like Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, will continue to stand by Michael Steele. But others will not.
Specter-Sestak still a snooze
Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) maintains a 53-32 lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) in a primary that is starting to be written off by some.
The latest Quinnipiac poll of the race shows Specter with a 60 percent favorability rating among likely primary voters, while Sestak is still unknown to three in five voters.
Read more...
Sen. Lincoln's primary challenger rakes it in; Giannoulias's bank troubles grow big-time; Was Obama's slip on Romney being the GOP "nominee" really a slip?
Giannoulias family bank loaned $20 million to felons
Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias is dealing with a
whopper of a headline today, with the Chicago
Tribune reporting that his family’s bank loaned about $20 million
to a pair of Chicago crime figures in a 14-month span.
The story was splashed across half the front page, with a huge, bold headline, all in CAPS.
The analysis of the bank’s records covers a period when Giannoulias was
still employed there as a senior loan officer. The paper also reports
that the two men – Michael Giorango and Demitri Stavropoulos – had
already been sentenced to prison terms when the bank made the loans.
Giannoulias has said Broadway Bank is set to go under. And his
campaign has taken care to cast the bank’s problems as the same problems
everyone else deals with in a tough economy.
But that case becomes harder to make with headlines like the one in the
Tribune today. Will voters have sympathy for a bank that loaned to
convicted felons?
Halter’s big quarter/month
The left has proven what it’s capable of when it really wants to go after an incumbent in a primary, with Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) announcing $2 million raised in just a month as a primary candidate against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.). Read more...
What Hutchison staying would mean for the GOP; first-quarter deadline means crunch time for some; Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) is the latest Democrat seeing bleak polling numbers.
A break for the GOP in Texas?
About the only Republicans who would be disappointed with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s (R-Texas) decision to serve out her term would be the half dozen or so who had their eyes on the seat.
For everyone else in her party, it would a big victory – though not as big as it might have been.
Hutchison is set to announce her plans Wednesday morning, and all signs point to her staying in the Senate through the end of her term in 2012. Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert announced yesterday that he wouldn't run for Senate, and Hutchison will be flanked by NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas) and GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
The way things stand right now, former state Comptroller John Sharp is the only major Democrat running to succeed her, while four Republicans (and possibly more) were set to run on the GOP side.
Texas’s special election law is such that everyone would have taken part in an open election where the top two would have gone on to a runoff (provided no one managed a majority on the first vote). Sharp was a strong bet to make that runoff, without any other Democrats in the race.
Of course, Democrats mayhave missed out on having their top candidate in the race when Houston Mayor Bill White, impatient with Hutchison’s dithering and seeing an opportunity against Republican Gov. Rick Perry, jumped from the Senate race to that race. He’s now being held up as the Dems' best hope for taking the gubernatorial mansion.
With Hutchison serving until 2012, her seat likely fades to the background unless things get out of hand for Republicans in two years. Sharp could be a strong candidate for Democrats, but making the case for the party to go after Texas in a regular election -- in a presidential year, no less -- is much tougher.
More than anything, though, the GOP avoids an unnecessary headache this year when its hopes are getting high enough where retaking the Senate, although unlikely, appears theoretically possible.
First quarter deadline today
Candidates around the country are scrambling at the end of the first quarter of 2010 – the first election-year measuring stick of their campaigns.
Reports aren’t due for another two weeks, but the last day for the candidates to raise money for the quarter is today. And with primaries fast approaching for many of them – May is a huge primary month – the period will hold particular significance for some.
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) hasn’t shown much traction so far in his primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), but a strong first three months of 2010 could change that. Others who could show us something include fellow Senate primary challengers like former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.), former Colorado state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) and the candidates seeking to unseat Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah).
In Bennett’s case, the anti-Bennett forces may be looking for a candidate to unite around. If one of the candidates – attorney Mike Lee, former congressional candidate Tim Bridgewater, activist Cherilyn Eagar and former Rep. Merrill Cook – can turn in a big first quarter, they could become the chief alternative to Bennett at the May 8 convention.
Among others to keep an eye on: the special election candidates for the seats of former Reps. John Murtha (D-Pa.) and Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii).
Another poll, more bad news for Dems
Freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) is the latest Democrat to trail in an early poll on the 2010 election.
Democrats point out that the poll was conducted immediately after the healthcare vote, before which opponents of the bill spent heavily to influence Titus’s vote -- a reported $1.3 million. She ended up voting in favor of the legislation.
Even if the poll is a few points on the optimistic side for Heck, though, there are warning signs for Titus. Her favorability rating (37 percent) is far worse than her unfavorable rating (52 percent). And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who will also be on the ballot, doesn’t look like he’ll be much help, carrying a 34 percent favorable rating and 61 percent unfavorable.
Whether Heck is actually leading or not right now, it’s clear that the race is going to be one of the biggest House races in the country.
Other updates:
-Just as quickly as he got in, Dr. Kevin Weiland has dropped his primary challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.). Weiland was getting help from former top Obama adviser Steve Hildebrand, who had also threatened Herseth Sandlin with a primary.
-Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told Cal Thomas that he will announce his 2012 presidential plans in February 2011.
-Wayne Parker, who was the GOP nominee against Rep. Parker Griffith (R-Ala.) in 2008 when Griffith was a Demcorat, will announce today whether he will challenge Griffith in a primary.
-Tim Burns, the GOP nominee in the Murtha race, is up with his first ad.
Mitt Romney is joining the fight when it comes to 2010 campaigns; more evidence that Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) is in some serious trouble; and a poll that probably isn't encouraging to potential Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) challenger Dino Rossi.
Palin not the only prez hopeful on the trail
As Sarah Palin rallies the crowd for Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.) today and supports challengers in three key Arizona House contests, Mitt Romney
is getting a piece of the action too.
Romney has announced endorsements of Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)
in his Senate campaign, as well as three House incumbents running for
reelection and Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.) challenger Ed Martin. Earlier this
week, he endorsed Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), former Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio)
and Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio) challenger Steve Stivers.
All House candidates got $2,500 check for their primaries
from Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC, and Blunt got $5,000.
Bennett in trouble (update No. 85)
Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) sounds like a man who knows he might be licked. He got the New York Times treatment today, and the result is telling.
Bennett acknowledged to the Times that, in his internal polling, he trails both "anyone-but-Bennett" and "undecided." Not sure if we've ever heard of an incumbent trailing "undecided" in a poll.
“If the anti-incumbent tide is as strong as some people
think it is, I will be swept out, despite all my efforts,” Bennett said. “If the anti-incumbent tide is a lot of conversation, but has no center
of gravity as a true political movement, then I’ll be just fine. There’s no way
to know."
Of course, most indications are that the anti-incumbent
sentiment is real. And we’ll say it again: if that’s the case, then an
activist-driven process, which Bennett faces at May's state convention, is the last kind of process you
want to go through.
The other Sen. Bennet -- Michael from Colorado -- saw it when he lost his state's precinct caucuses recently, and Bennett sounds like he has a bad feeling about his own fate.
Rossi down 11
Potential Washington Senate candidate Dino Rossi told The
Hill recently that he wasn’t apt to run a race that would be decided by the
narrowest of margins. He’s been there before, and it wasn’t fun.
But if a new Research 2000 poll for the liberal website
Daily Kos is any indication, Rossi would be faced with just such a race, if he's going to be competitive at all.
While other polls have shown the two-time GOP governor
nominee neck and neck with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the latest has him
trailing her 52-41.
Rossi was in Washington this week meeting with the NRSC. The
timing of this poll isn’t ideal for the committee’s recruiting efforts, but
Rossi has made it clear that he’s willing to wait as long as June to make his
decision. We should have plenty more data to look at by then. The fact that he
was in Washington is a good sign for Republicans.
The healthcare bill returns to the House, sort of; Obama and the bill might not have gotten such a big bump after all; and Bob Bennett is still waiting to see just how much trouble he faces.
We had so much fun last time, what's one more vote?
Congratulations, House Democrats! You get to vote on
healthcare again! OK, it’s not that bad. A late-night ruling from the Senate
parliamentarian on two minor provisions of the House-passed reconciliation
package will send the package back to the House for another vote. Democrats who
are already dealing with primary challenges and losing support from abortion
groups would probably rather put the issue behind them. But it’s not as if they
will be forced to vote again on the initial healthcare bill, which was signed
into law Tuesday and was much more political than the reconciliation package.
Any illusions that the parliamentarian’s ruling was a huge victory for the GOP
should be offset by Republican Whip Jon Kyl’s (R-Ariz.) concession to our J.
Taylor Rushing that it was a “consolation prize.” (Check out Kyl's comments here).
Post-healthcare bump or slump?
A new Quinnipiac poll finds the much-hyped Gallup poll from
after the healthcare vote might have been an outlier. Quinnipiac finds
President Barack Obama getting an insignificant bump and the healthcare bill still
supported by only 40percent of the population. That is four points higher than
it was before the vote, but it’s hardly a flip in favor of the bill either.
Nearly half (49 percent) of voters still oppose the bill, and Obama’s approval
rating is still one point lower (45 percent) than his disapproval (46). The
ratings track with a post-vote CBS News poll that found the bill favored by 42
percent and opposed by 46 percent. We’re still waiting for another poll to
validate Gallup’s one-day finding.
Bennett update
We don’t yet know what happened in Utah on Tuesday, but
we’ve got a good idea. And none of it sounds good for Sen. Bob Bennett
(R-Utah). The Salt Lake Tribune offers some anecdotal evidence of the
anti-incumbent mood that existed at the caucuses, and while we don’t have much
in the way of hard numbers, it’s clear that Bennett is going to have to fight
for his political life. The Tribune even cites someone who campaigned for former
GOP Rep. Chris Cannon in 2008 when he barely survived the caucuses and went on to
lose the primary. Even having gone through that with Cannon, the person was
surprised at the vitriol at his caucus Tuesday.
Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) waits for caucus results, Tea Party could prove bad for Republicans and MSNBC host Rachel Maddow is not happy with Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.).
Bennett awaits Utah caucus results
The first step of a scary renominating process for Sen. Bob
Bennett (R-Utah) took place last night in the state's caucuses, and we should get the results sometime
today. Much like with the other Sen. Bennet in Colorado, Tuesday night’s
results don’t technically mean anything, but they will be used to judge the
incumbents strength as we head into a more binding process at the state
convention. Bennett needs 40 percent there to stay on the primary ballot and 60
percent to win the nomination outright. If he hovers around 40 or 50 percent in
the caucus results, his opponents will feel like they have a good chance to
take him to a one-on-one primary. If he’s under 40 percent, blood will be in
the water, with his opponents feeling like they can take him down at the convention
and unseat him there. Bennett recognizes the peril he faces. He told the local
ABC affiliate: “A lot of voters are – who have been my supporters in the past –
have now said, ‘Yeah, but you were there when all these terrible things
happened. We want somebody new.’”
Spot of Tea for the GOP
If the Tea Party goes third-party, Republicans could be in real
trouble. A new Quinnipiac poll shows the GOP leading the congressional ballot
44-39. That’s the good news. The bad news: if the Tea Party is added to the
mix as it's own entity, then Democrats open up a 36-25 lead on Republicans. We’ve seen this borne
out in the polling in Nevada, where a Tea Party candidate looks like he could
keep Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) safe for another term. “The Tea
Party could be a Republican dream – or a GOP nightmare,” summarizes Quinnipiac pollster
Peter Brown. As primary foes, Tea Party types don’t tend to pose much of a
threat. As third-party candidates, they can do real damage by taking just a few
percentage points from the GOP in key races. The good thing for the GOP is that
the former hasn’t become an overwhelming trend yet.
No Maddow for Senate
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) used the prospect of a matchup
with Rachel Maddow in a fundraising e-mail, and Maddow’s having none of it.
Becoming the latest MSNBC host to turn to down a Senate run, Maddow says it’s
not happening.
Most Viewed RSS Feed »
