Campaign blogs roundup

Democrats have been pointing and laughing much of the cycle, as conservative primary challengers have launched campaigns against GOP establishment favorites around the country. But now they may have their own primaries to worry about. A couple of healthcare ‘no’ votes – Reps. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) -- are being threatened by challengers from the left, and Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.), Mike McMahon (D-N.Y.) and Zack Space (D-Ohio) appear to be next. Altmire faces a potential matchup with Allegheny County Labor Council President Jack Shea, while Lynch faces activist Harmony Wu. Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) also launched some robocalls explaining his vote (he has faced a primary challenge from state Sen. Al Lawson for months). As with all primary challenges, though, these should be taken with grains of salt until the challengers show some real potential. Just like on the GOP side, these things rarely pan out. And perhaps the one primary that could have had an instant impact – former top Obama aide Steve Hildebrand vs. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) – predictably fell apart yesterday when Hildebrand opted not to run. In these situations, labor leaders and activists tend to try to make an example of one member. The rest of them are probably safe.

Mommy warbucks

Meg Whitman is putting Jon Corzine to shame and appears to be heading into Bloomberg territory. Whitman (R) has now spent (i.e. money out the door) nearly $40 million of her own money on her governor bid in California, including more than $27 million in the past 11 weeks. Her pace has already trumped Corzine (D), who spent $25 million on his unsuccessful 2009 reelection campaign, and starting to look more like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I), who spent $100 million his 2009 reelect. And it’s worked for her. Recent polls have shown her with a near-50 point lead on another big-time self-funder, Steve Poizner, in the primary. She also appears to be well-positioned in general election, showing a small lead there as well.

Kentucky two-step

As we continue to sort out the health care arguments, an interesting situation is shaping up in the Kentucky Democratic Senate primary. State Attorney General Jack Conway continues to hammer away at Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo for not supporting the healthcare bill that passed in the House on Sunday. Mongiardo’s response was, in essence, ‘You’re wrong, but you might be right.’ In an odd release, Mongiardo’s campaign says Conway’s claim that Mongiardo opposed the bill is not true, but it also admits that he would have voted against the bill Sunday without major assurances from President Obama. “Without those assurances, I would vote no because in and and (sic) of itself, this bill will not fundamentally address our healthcare challenges – and could undermine the laudable goals of reform.” Conway needs to make up some ground, according to recent polls. Is this his opening? And is Mongiardo confident enough to start shifting toward the general election?

A special Deal

The nonpartisan special election for former Rep. Nathan Deal’s (R-Ga.) seat has been set for April 27, with a possible runoff set for May 25. Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) made the announcement Tuesday. The seat is not expected to be a Democratic pickup opportunity.

It wasn’t that close after all – that’s the story after a drama-free roll call vote last night on the president’s healthcare bill. We had a good idea of how basically everyone would vote – except Reps. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) and Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) – and people stuck by their votes. The clear 219-212 margin with which Democrats passed the bill also allows their vulnerable members to avoid the “deciding vote” charge – which would have been in play if it passed with 216 votes. Republican have attempted to turn Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.) into former Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-Pa.), who was the deciding vote on President Clinton’s budget and paid the price for it in 1994, being voted out after one term. But Markey wasn’t the deciding vote, and neither was any other Democrat – at least that Republicans can prove. Republicans could still have a powerful argument on the issue, but the fact that Democrats were able to pad their margin, even a little bit, should save their members some trouble.

'Repeal it'

There was one common thread running through much of the GOP reaction to the vote last night: The call for repeal. Look for the GOP to continue to push this idea. While it remains to be seen how practical the idea is, it keeps the base fired up and keeps the issue front-of-mind. It also gives people incentive to vote in November. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said after the vote that Republicans would “challenge it every place we can.” Just about every GOP congressional challenger mentioned it in their press releases slamming the Democrats. The goal for the GOP is to keep the enthusiasm going.

Deal is out

Because the margin wasn’t that close, Rep. Nathan Deal’s (R-Ga.) decision to stay in Congress for a few more weeks didn’t really matter. Deal announced he would resign to run for governor, but amidst some pressure said he would stay through the healthcare vote. After the late night vote came up short for Republicans, Deal didn’t wait long to formally resign his seat. Georgia law calls for a nonpartisan special election, but this is one of the most conservative districts in the country. Indeed, in the neighboring 10^th district, Rep. Paul Broun (R-Ga.) was one of two Republicans in a runoff when he won his seat in a special election in 2007.

All eyes are on the four or five dozen (or less?) House lawmakers who are undecided on the health care bill. While different whip counts peg the number differently, one thing is clear: Democratic leaders need to get that vast majority of them. According to the Washington Post’s count, of the 64 undecided members, all but seven voted no last time. In The Hill’s vote count, 36 members are leaning no or are firm no’s, meaning Democrats can only lose one more member if all members are voting. The last votes are going to be torturous to get, and there will be stories down the road about the Democratic leadership’s whipping efforts – much like the 2003 GOP Medicare prescription drug bill.

Dems still recruiting

If former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) can beat Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) or at least damage him sufficiently, Democrats may have an opportunity. Now, they may have landed someone who could take advantage. Businesswoman Nan Walden is taking a serious look on the race, and Democrats think she could raise the kind of money needed to make the race competitive. Remember, Hayworth lost one of the more disappointing races for the GOP in 2006, and national party types aren’t exactly salivating over the thought of him being their nominee. Walden sounds like a good insurance policy for the Democrats.

Poll in Murtha’s district

We’re not sure what to make of this polling firm yet, but for good measure, We Ask America finds that former Murtha district director Mark Critz (D) leads businessman Tim Burns (R) 39-35 in the race for Murtha’s old seat. Neither man is well known at this point, so this is likely more of a generic ballot-type poll. Either way, it shows this could be an opportunity for Republicans. If polling is actually this close, the NRCC has little excuse not to give it a shot and go after the seat.

Republicans may have new hope in New York’s governor’s race thanks to … a Democrat. Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy is set to announce that he will switch parties in order to seek the GOP nomination, which would almost surely match him up with state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. First, of course, he faces a primary matchup with former Rep. Rick Lazio (R-N.Y.). Adding to the drama is a New York Post report yesterday citing anonymous sources who said the RNC has threatened to withhold money from New York if GOP Chairman Ed Cox allowed Levy to be the party's nominee. Republicans are already sore over the state party allowing Dede Scozzafava to become their standard-bearer in a race that exposed a chasm in the party. Having a recent former Democrat run in your governor’s race probably doesn’t do much to rebuild bridges.

Boxer race heats up

For the first time this cycle, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) trails – albeit by one point – in a general election poll. The new Field Poll shows former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) with a 44-43 lead on Boxer, who has seen her favorability numbers drop fast. She is now viewed favorably by 38 percent of respondents, compared to 51 percent who view her unfavorably. Those numbers rival where Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) started to get in real trouble. The poll also released numbers yesterday showing Meg Whitman surging in the governor’s race. If Republicans can make California competitive, it's become pretty clear that the Senate could be in play to. It should be noted that the Field Poll doesn’t generally inflate the numbers of unknown candidates. Carly Fiorina, who trails 45-44 in the new poll, trailed by 15 points in January and 30 points early last year. And Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski doesn’t sound too surprised by the numbers: “We're obviously in a very tough political environment where voters are understandably frustrated with the economy, and we're facing an (off-year) electorate that's naturally more conservative. We always thought this was going to be a challenging race, and now it's clear this is going to be the toughest Boxer campaign yet."

Health care update

Confirming his earlier comments, Rep. Steve Driehaus’s (D-Ohio) office spells out more clearly that, unless abortion provisions are added, he will oppose the bill. “Unless changes are made to the abortion language in the Senate version, Rep. Driehaus will be voting no," spokesman Tim Mulvey told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. Meanwhile, another Ohio member, Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio), will be a ‘yes.’ Sutton recently drew a challenge from wealthy car deal Tom Ganley, but she's not thought to be in serious danger.

"IRISH-AMERICAN REPUBLICANS ENDORSE MARC O'RUBIO FOR U.S. SENATE" -- the headline of a press release from Marco Rubio's (note the spelling difference) Senate campaign.

As national Democrats feared, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff defeated Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) in Tuesday’s precinct caucuses in Colorado. But it may not be the only setback for the political establishment; former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton also trailed narrowly in the GOP primary with insurgent candidate Ken Buck. The caucus straw polls have long been an activist-driven event, and they shouldn’t be overestimated as far as their effect on what happens in the primaries. But Romanoff now has two things he can point to – his 51-42 caucus win and a poll this week showing him trailing just 40-34 in the primary – to show donors that he is a serious candidate. If he can turn those two things into campaign funds, he’s got a good shot at beating an appointee with an untested political track record and so-so numbers. The showing wasn't resounding for either side, but it does reinforce that this race has potential. Norton’s showing was a little less surprising, given that Buck has been beating her in straw polls around the state and had locked up the support of several Tea Party groups. But it still proves that Buck will be a nuisance for her going forward. Like Romanoff, he needs to raise more money.

McMahon up, but GOP still down big

Republicans still have a lot of work to do in the general election, but the primary in Connecticut is starting to take shape. A Quinnipiac poll this morning shows former WWE CEO Linda McMahon taking a 44-34 lead over former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) in the primary, after Simmons led by 10 in January. Over that span, the number of undecided voters has dropped from 38 percent to 22 percent. Meanwhile, state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal still holds a 30-plus point lead over both in the general election, taking more than 60 percent against McMahon and Simmons. His approval rating is a sterling 79 percent. Republicans need to spend a few months taking Blumenthal down a peg (or five) if they want to have a shot here; right now, their own pitched primary is preventing them from doing that.

Kirkpatrick to vote ‘yes’ again

Continuing to update you on the vulnerables and their health care votes: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) said Tuesday that she will remain a ‘yes’ vote. Kirkpatrick faces dentist Paul Gosar in a second-tier GOP target district. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), who isn’t really vulnerable outside of a possible primary, will announce his intentions this morning at 10 a.m. eastern time.

The post was updated at 9:30 a.m. to reflect the unsettled nature of the Norton-Buck race.

"Let me start out by saying that Joe is a good congressman, a good American and a friend of mine. ... But he has, in my judgment, no chance of winning." - Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), handicapping Rep. Joe Sestak's (D-Pa.) chances of beating Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) in a podcast interview with local reporters.

In today’s paper, I look at eight primaries in which the 2008 bailout vote will loom large. The bailout got plenty of play as a campaign issue following Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s (R-Texas) primary loss to Gov. Rick Perry, but plenty of people seem to be missing the point. Part of this is because the issue is going to be applied on a case-by-case basis, with both parties having races where it will help and hurt them. That’s made it a difficult issue for the national parties to go after, because so many of each party’s members voted for or against it. Instead, the Democrats have used TARP as a jumping off point to criticize Republicans who voted against the Democratic-led banking reform bill in December. They also landed a hit on former Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) over the weekend for criticizing the bailout while, according to lobbying disclosures, having lobbied on it for Chrysler's parent company. Once individual campaigns get off the ground a little bit more, though, expect a heavy dose of the bailout from here on-out.

Colorado caucuses

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) face their first big tests today, when Colorado holds the first stage of its lengthy primary process – the precinct caucuses. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is riding high after a poll Tuesday showed him trailing just 40-34 among the general electorate. Norton, meanwhile, has been losing straw poll after straw poll to GOP primary opponent and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. Both Bennet and Norton could make big statements, or they could experience significant setbacks. These will be some of the most closely watched precinct caucuses in a while.

Health care vulnerables update

-Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) was a no last time, and he’ll be a no this time, pledging to vote against the Senate bill and a reconciliation package. 

-Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) was a yes last time. She tells to AP: "There's no decision yet on what the process is going to be, there's nothing back from the CBO, there's no commitment yet from the Senate that they can get 51 votes, and there's no bill to show me what it's in it. So until those things get resolved I'm staying uncommitted."

Correction: This post initially stated that Titus was a 'no' vote in November.

"Sexy Bitch" - the name of a 47-foot sports yacht owned by Linda McMahon's husband, according to the Stamford Advocate.

More and more Democratic members are being forced to go on the record about the Senate health care bill. Over the weekend, Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) and Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) reasserted that they won't support a bill that uses federal money for abortion. "I will not support a health care reform bill if I believe it would result in federal tax dollars being used to fund abortions," Ellsworth, who is running for Senate, told the Evansville Courier-Press. Driehaus told the Cincinnati Enquirer: "I will not bend on the principle of federal funding on abortion." Meanwhile, some other vulnerable Democrats are receiving plenty of pressure from their hometown papers, including Reps. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) and Betsy Markey (D-Colo.). If the White House plans to push for a vote this week, look for plenty of anguished quotes from undecided Democrats. Many of them are voting for their political futures.

DCCC relaunches SpeakerPelosi.com, seeks anecdotes

The DCCC is relaunching SpeakerPelosi.com, and it’s sending an e-mail to four million grassroots supporters soliciting their stories of the current health care system’s woes. "When Republicans attack, we must knock down their smears and falsehoods with the truth -- with stories from real, hardworking Americans who have been forced to put their dreams on hold because of our country's broken health care system -- and that's why I need to hear from you," Pelosi writes.

Patrick Kennedy’s rainy day fund

Retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) isn’t done with public office, and that means his half-milion dollar campaign kitty isn’t heading to the DCCC anytime soon. The Washington Post reports that he will keep the money in an interest-bearing account in case he ever decides to run for Senate. You may recall that Kennedy’s cousin, former Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), has done the same thing for the past decade, and it didn’t do Democrats much good when a special election for Senate came around last year.

A real political sports bet

The Ballot Box is generally skeptical of politicians making pointless wagers when it comes to their local sports teams, but Dan Mongiardo is on to something. The Kentucky lieutenant governor and Democratic Senate candidate used the occasion of the NCAA basketball tournament to point out that he is a UK grad, while primary opponent Jack Conway is a Duke grad. Mongiardo wants to bet which of the No. 1 seeds will advance further. Something tells us Conway doesn’t take the bait, or the bet. Of course, it’s not the first time Mongiardo’s camp has needled Conway over his Duke ties. The power of this attack should not be underestimated in a state where college basketball is king.