Campaign blogs roundup

Businessman Tim Burns is the GOP nominee in the special election for the late Rep. John Murtha’s (D-Pa.) seat. Now the question is how much money he and the national GOP will put into the race. This is a swing district, but it’s a tough situation for Republicans. Democrats will be running hotly contested regular primaries for governor and Senate on May 18, while Republicans have little to speak of when it comes to driving their voters to the polls. Burns has the personal resources to self-fund, but he has only given his campaign $75,000 so far and doesn't raise much. The national GOP, meanwhile, would like to see Burns commit to spending a significant amount of his money before it starts spending its own on the race. Resources are at a premium at the NRCC, and it would rather not be bothered with a must-win type race. Expectations are low so far, but will they remain that way?

Health care albatross

Democratic pollsters Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell put into words what has been pretty apparent in polls, but that few Democrats have conceded – that the health care bill is a big political problem in 2010. "In the wake of the stinging loss in Massachusetts, there was a moment when the president and the Democratic leadership seemed to realize the reality of the health-care situation," they write in the Washington Post. "Yet like some seductive siren of Greek mythology, the lure of health-care reform has arisen again." Wow. They go further by saying the battle for public opinion is a lost cause. Reading that, it’s no surprise that in today’s paper, I found just one of 26 Democratic candidates willing to attach their name to the legislation. 

Melancon still in it

Democrats want to assure they have a chance against Sen. David Vitter (R-La.). The campaign of Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) is releasing another poll showing him trailing the incumbent by 10 points. That’s the same margin he trailed by in another Anzalone Liszt poll in May 2009, and it tracks closely with early polling on the race. Since then, however, Rasmussen has released a couple polls showing Vitter leading by around 20 points. Rest assured, Melancon has a chance if he runs the right kind of campaign. But Vitter is hovering right around that 50 percent mark, and things will probably need to get a little dirty. This is Louisiana, though, so we can probably count on it.

On the same day Rep. John Conyers’s (D-Mich.) wife was sentenced to three years in prison for taking bribes, news broke that Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) and a top aide were subpoenaed to testify before a grand jury. It’s not clear what the issue with Kilpatrick is, but you’ll recall her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, served time in jail for corruption. This is not only bad news for Kilpatrick, who learned last week that she will face a primary challenge from state Rep. Hansen Clarke, but also for Democratic leaders. With the foibles in New York fresh in everyone’s mind, the timing of these troubles in Michigan are rounding out a picture Republicans are hoping to paint. Kilpatrick could also be in some serious trouble in her primary, having won in 2008 with just 37 percent of the vote.

Si? Senor

GOP and conservative leaders appear to be rallying around Dan Senor in New York, with Rudy Giuliani, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn, Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long and state GOP Chairman Ed Cox among those urging Senor to run. He is also reportedly talking about hiring consultants, namely McLaughlin and Associates. We’ve seen too many people dip their toe in the water in New York, only to recoil, but most of them are established politicians with something to lose. Senor has much to gain from running a campaign, even if he loses. He would build name recognition for future runs and wouldn’t have steep expectations on his candidacy. He is expected to decide on a bid by next month.

Red to Blue to red in the face

Rob Miller was one of 13 Democrats added to the initial stage of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program for challengers and open-seat candidates on Wednesday. But his first day as a top hope for his party didn’t go so smoothly. McClatchy reports that Rep. Joe Wilson’s (R-S.C.) challenger is claiming that he didn’t prevent media from filming a speech he gave recently at a Democratic club. But e-mails obtained by McClatchy, including one from the event’s organizer, say pretty clearly that the cameras were excluded at the Miller campaign’s request. “I was unaware that the (Miller) campaign wouldn’t allow the taping of Mr. Miller's speech until they complained,” Irmo Democratic Club Treasurer Bill Salter wrote to a local TV reporter. “I personally disagree with this stance.”

The DCCC is releasing the names of its first 13 members of the Red to Blue program for challengers, and there aren’t many surprises. That’s probably because the committee already released a list of races it was targeting, and the 13 inductees to Red to Blue track closely with that list. In fact, of the 14 candidates it declared to be in “top races” in January, all but one of them are now Red to Blue. The only one who didn’t make the leap is attorney Jon Hulburd, who is running in a tough district being vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.). Red to Blue is expected to expanded modestly, with Democrats waiting for a few primaries to play out in districts like Rep. Michele Bachmann’s (R-Minn.), Rep. Jim Gerlach’s (R-Pa.), and Rep. Joseph Cao’s (R-La.).

Massa implosion

Republicans hoping for a boost from former Rep. Eric Massa’s (D-N.Y.) appearances Tuesday on Glenn Beck and Larry King were sorely disappointed. Beck grappled for the entire hour with Massa, trying to get him to offer any specifics about what the White House had done wrong. Massa sat there like he basically didn’t understand the question, and kept spewing generalities. When he finally did offer an example, he actually suggested that whipping votes was somehow inherently corrupt. The performance left Beck completely frustrated, to the point where he apologized to his viewers on two occasions and suggested that, for the first time, he felt like he wasted their time. Then Massa went on King’s show and refused to say whether he was gay – which will play right into the allegations being lodged against him. It’s hard to see Republicans promoting this man with any great vigor in the coming weeks.

Wyden covering his bases

In this morning’s paper, I write about GOP efforts to go after Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Well, it appears not even her Northwestern neighbor, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), is taking any chances at this point. Wyden’s campaign released a poll Tuesday showing him leading Republican Jim Huffman 53-23. It also, for the sake of comparison, showed him leading Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.) 52-24. Walden, who passed on a gubernatorial bid this cycle, has not shown any interest in running for the Senate.

Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) has an hour-long bully pulpit this evening on Glenn Beck’s show, in which the host will be only so happy to allow him to tear into the Democratic leadership. What’s interesting here is that Massa has often opposed the Democratic leadership from the left, while Beck is coming from the right. It’s an enemy-of-my-enemy situation, but it’s easy to see the two of them playing off each other. In fact, the man Massa pegged to replace him in the House, Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan (D), even compared Massa to Beck yesterday. He told the New York Daily News, “Now he has more conspiracy theories than Glenn Beck does. I think he has just gone over the edge.” Massa does have a tendency to speak in platitudes and to be a little, as Rahm Emanuel frequently reminded him, angry. But it’s hard to think what could better play into his appearance on Fox News tonight. And after that, he will be on Larry King too.

The Hoff returns

As expected, Doug Hoffman will run again in New York’s 23^rd congressional district. Hoffman officially launched his campaign Monday, but he has been preparing a bid since the day after his loss to now-Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) in November. Republicans in Washington think Hoffman has earned another shot at the seat, but it’s got to be somewhat worrying that he still refuses to rule out a third-party bid if he loses the GOP primary. It’s an interesting power play. Basically, Hoffman is saying, ‘I will be on the ballot anyways, so you might as well give me your nomination.’ But the thing is, he would be the favorite regardless, so does he need to risk irritating the GOP? And while this may be a convincing argument to party leaders, it probably means nothing to most primary voters.

More from New York, because we can

Republicans may have lost a well-funded candidate in the race to face Rep. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.), with businessman Mark Bitz suspending his campaign after he missed out on the Conservative and Republican designations in the district. He might still run in the primary, but suspending your campaign is never a good sign. And even if he does run in the primary, he will be giving up a few months of fundraising time. The Conservative and Republican parties in four counties recently backed Syracuse common councilor Ann Marie Buerkle over Bitz. Bitz is willing to wait as long as June to judge whether to jump back in the race. At that point, though, he’ll probably have to self-fund heavily in order to put together the kind of money he needs to bear Maffei.

Kevin Madden, a well-known former House GOP leadership aide and Mitt Romney spokesman, is joining a South Carolina-based public affairs firm.

Madden will head up the new Washington office of Jim Dyke and Associates, while continuing his work with Glover Park Group.

Madden was a key communications aide to House Majority Leaders Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and John Boehner (R-Ohio) before joining up with Romney's 2008 campaign as national press secretary.

JDA President Jim Dyke said: “Kevin’s leadership abilities and his reputation as a top strategist fit perfectly with our business model, offering organizations the experience, knowledge and creativity required to build, execute and then win public affairs campaigns.”

Things are getting a little fracky in New York, and soon-to-be-former Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) is not going quietly. He elaborated Sunday on what exactly he said to a staffer and then suggested the Democratic leadership leaked the details so that it could get rid of an opponent of the current health care reform bill. According to Massa, they were all at a wedding and had a little too much to drink. "A staff member made an intonation to me that maybe I should be chasing after the bridesmaid,” Massa told local radio station WKPQ-FM. “His points were clear, and his words far more colorful. I grabbed the staff member next to me and said, ‘Well, what I really ought to be doing is fracking you,’ then tousled the guy’s hair and left.” The sheer weirdness of Massa’s statement is going to give this one some life; it certainly feels like fodder for the late-night talk shows. But what may be most noteworthy here is Massa’s suggestion that the Democratic leadership railroaded him. Massa also said he has never spoken to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), labeling Hoyer’s account of events a “lie” and a “blatant, false statement.”

Murtha seat: State Dems’ stamp not guaranteed

For those who thought Democrats picked a candidate for the late Rep. John Murtha’s (D-Pa.) seat over the weekend, you’re only half right. While Democratic leaders in the 12^th congressional district picked former Murtha district director Mark Critz on Saturday, the final decision goes to the state executive committee today, and nobody’s counting chickens just yet. In fact, the members of the statewide committee who voted at the district level Saturday split evenly between Critz and state Treasurer Barbara Hafer. Hafer’s campaign has been working hard to call into question Critz’s electability, and some say it could be an issue for the state party. If Critz does get the nod, Hafer has gotten the ball rolling for Republicans, as far as transferring ethical questions about Murtha on to Critz’s candidacy.

Cornyn to weigh in

About two weeks after DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) spoke to reporters at a breakfast, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas) is holding a pen and pad with reporters today at 10 a.m. eastern time. Expect him to be asked about how Republicans will expand the map in 2010, including opportunities in New York, Washington and Wisconsin. Rand Paul is likely to be a topic too, after a poll this weekend showed him beating establishment favorite Trey Grayson by 15 (!) points. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) and her future in the Senate will also come up, as per usual.

The writing was on the wall, but Rep. Bill Delahunt (D-Mass.) made it official last night – he’ll be retiring after seven terms in the House. Republicans targeted this race soon after Scott Brown’s upset in the state’s special Senate election, and Delahunt’s seat looks to provide them their best hope of cracking into the Massachusetts House delegation. On the GOP side, former state Treasurer Joe Malone, state Sen. Robert Hedlund and state Rep. Jeffrey Perry are mentioned as possible candidates. Democrats eyeing the seat include Norfolk District Attorney William Keating, state Sen. Robert O’Leary, and former insurance company executive Philip Edmundson. The district was a 55 percent Kerry district, but Brown carried it by 20 points. Delahunt’s exit was the second in two days for Democrats, who of course lost Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) to much different circumstances on Wednesday.

Romney in DC

Mitt Romney’s book tour continues today, with a stop at a National Press Club luncheon. The potential 2012 presidential frontrunner and former Massachusetts governor has been making the rounds here, there and everywhere, with much of the time spent trying to soften up his wooden image. During an appearance on the Late Show with David Letterman earlier this week, Romney noted that during his much-publicized scrap on an airplane with rapper Sky Blu of LMFAO, the man hit him and “broke my hair.” He also disclosed that he drives a Ford Mustang. One of the criticisms of Romney has been that people can’t relate to him and that he’s a little too “perfect” for voters. Much of winning in 2012 will be relating to the masses.

Paterson trouble grows

Two days after Quinnipiac found that 61 percent of voters wanted New York Gov. David Paterson (D) to complete his term, the same polling firm finds that number has dropped to 46 percent. Paterson has dealt with a series of revelations about his role in his office intervening in a staffer’s domestic abuse case. He has said he will stick it out, but there is growing pressure for him to back off that pledge and step aside. It seems every time he reiterates he will stay on, some more details come out.

"Had to sell five black angus cows to stay in the game. But we're in to win and still have a few more cows!" - Arkansas Senate candidate Kim Hendren (R), via Twitter. Hendren joked to The Tolbert Report he had to sell the livestock in order to pay his filing fee to run for Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-Ark.) seat.

We don’t yet know what kind of trouble Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) has with the House ethics committee, but it’s going to dog Democrats for now. If he is to believed, he said something rather “salty” to a staffer. Democratic aides, meanwhile, said that the staffer was made to feel “uncomfortable.”  That doesn’t sound like enough to force a man into retirement, at least yet. Massa didn’t resign, so the ethics committee will be able to investigate and, hopefully, provide some answers. Either way, the situation is a distraction for a party already dealing with the foibles of another New York Democrat, Rep. Charles Rangel. It’s also another Democratic open seat in a McCain district, and it’s probably one of the last retirements they expected – from a freshman lawmaker. Former Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-N.Y.) is considering running for the seat Massa took from him in 2008, and Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) is already in the race.

Rangel-ing up his cash

If you can say nothing else of the Rangel situation, you can say that Republicans put it to good use early on. According to an NRCC tally released late Wednesday, the committee forced Democrats around the country to part with $353,000 in contributions from Rangel. Look for that number to rise even more, because once most Democrats give back the money, pretty much everyone has to. The NRCC’s recall effort is one of the most successful on record, in part because Rangel dispensed so much campaign cash from his now-former perch on the House Ways and Means Committee.

Giannoulias’s bank troubles grow

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias said Wednesday that he expects his family bank to fail, and then he stumbled over what he knew and when about loans it made to a convicted bookie. The Democratic Senate nominee took some heat in the local press for first saying the he wasn’t aware of Michael “Jaws” Giorango’s criminal dealings when Broadway Bank gave Giorango a loan. The Chicago Tribune said outright that Giannoulias “contradicted” some 2006 comments he made about Giorango, when Giannoulias said he was indeed aware of his criminal past. Giannoulias reportedly then said he wouldn’t comment further because, according to the Tribune, “he doesn't want to give inconsistent answers.” The local media clearly don’t think Giannoulias is being forthcoming about the whole matter, and they’re unlikely to let it go anytime soon.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) threw in the towel early last night, with results in the state’s governors race looking bleak but still the chance of a runoff. No need, though, Hutchison quit early. Now the question is, will she quit the Senate early? Here’s how it breaks down: Hutchison wants to leave Washington, but she has plenty of reasons to stay. No. 1 is her legacy. Quitting now would make it look like she’s defeated, and she would end a solid political career with a loss. No. 2 is her successor. Does she really want a man she has battled for the last year-plus, Gov. Rick Perry, appointing her temporary successor and possibly anointing her permanent replacement with that appointment? And No. 3 is her colleagues, who will do whatever they can to avoid a special election. The format of the special election helps Democrats, with a crowded GOP field and a likely runoff. It’s no surprise that there’s been a steady drumbeat of Hutchison’s colleagues asking her to stay. Hutchison probably hasn’t made up her mind, though, so the soap opera continues.

Special Election Week set for May

Hawaii elections officials have set May 22 as the official special election date to replace Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii). This sets up a big week for campaign junkies, in which Republicans will try to take the late Rep. John Murtha’s (D-Pa.) seat on Tuesday the 18th and then go after Abercrombie’s seat the following Saturday. It’s a big opportunity, but also lots of pressure. If the GOP is to make big gains this year, they will probably want to steal at least one of those seats. Republicans also have a recent history of poor special election performances to deal with, so the stakes will be high in that regard, too. Mark your calendars!

Crist uses Dem attack line

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is now taking on fellow Republican governors who spoke out against the stimulus and then accepted its funding. In his State of the State address last night, Crist continued to tack toward the middle in his GOP primary with former House Speaker Marco Rubio. “A few governors may have rather loudly condemned the stimulus money, but that did not stop them from quietly accepting it,” Crist said, adding: “During these very difficult economic times, we do a disservice to the people who elected us – the people who are counting on us – to elevate ideology over problem-solving.” Crist’s embrace of the stimulus is one thing. Calling out fellow Republicans for hypocrisy on it is another matter entirely.