Campaign blogs roundup

It’s primary day in Texas, where the magic number is 50-plus-one for Gov. Rick Perry (R). That’s what he needs if he wants to save the time, trouble and money of a six-week runoff with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R). Either way, it’s hard to see Perry losing this primary, but it’s going to be interesting to see how much of a fight Hutchison puts up. After that, get ready for the continuation of the will-she-or-won’t-she soap opera about whether or not Hutchison will resign her Senate seat. She has said her pledge to resign remains intact, but many, including admittedly the Ballot Box, are dubious. The GOP doesn’t need to risk losing another seat, just as some pundits are starting to talk about them regaining the majority in the Senate, and the pressure will be on for Hutchison. What’s more, if she resigns, she’d be giving the man who beat her, Perry, the right to replace her with a temporary appointment. That wouldn’t sit well with her.

Be sure to check back at the Ballot Box tonight, where we will be live-blogging the results from Texas. The GOP primaries to face Reps. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas) are also on the ballot.

Specter surge or outlier alert?

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) inexplicably took the lead over former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in the latest Quinnipiac poll on the race. It’s hard to see what might have caused Specter, who has trailed by double digits in other recent polls, to surge to a 49-42 lead over Toomey. It also shows Specter with a net-positive (48-45) job approval rating, which is widely different than other polling – Franklin and Marshall recently showed Specter’s job numbers at 30-62, with him trailing Toomey 44-34. The one area where it does echo other polls is the primary, which shows Specter leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) 53-29. At this point, though, the poll has to be considered an outlier. 

Have you driven a Ford (out of the race) lately?

We shouldn’t be terribly surprised that former Rep. Harold Ford Jr.’s (D-Tenn.) primary against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) was so quickly aborted. Ford’s launch was about as rough as they come, and his past issue positions made him a tough sell in a blue state so soon after his last campaign. The good thing for Gillibrand is that this threat, moreso than the others before it, really seems to have swung her campaign into high gear. If Mort Zuckerman or former Gov. George Pataki are really serious about taking a shot at her, they now know what they will be dealing with. And despite some lukewarm job approval numbers for Gillibrand, she’s shown she can more than hold her own in a statewide contest.

Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is leading the news this morning, after saying on his campaign website that he will challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) in a primary. Lincoln was already in enough trouble; she didn’t need Halter to complicate things for her. But it is interesting if for no other reason than that it’s another established political figure going after an incumbent senator in a primary. Lincoln is the fourth Democrat, along with two Republicans, to face such a challenge. And nothing is more indicative of the anti-Washington mantra that these challengers will go with than Halter’s announcement video (below). You’ve got to wonder if Halter has watched the fates of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and thought, “This is a good time.”

Heading for the exits

Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s (D-Hawaii) last day in Congress was Sunday, and Rep. Nathan Deal (R-Ga.) may also be on his way out today to focus on his run for governor. The Peach Pundit blog reports that Deal will end his congressional tenure – a move which has the added bonus of getting the House Ethics Committee off his back. It also paves the way for a special election. Deal has announced a press conference at 9 a.m. in his district. The district is one of the most conservative in the country, and should come down to a GOP battle between state Sen. Lee Hawkins, state Rep. Tom Graves and Dr. Chris Cates, among other candidates.

Deep in the heart

We are about 24 hours away from polls opening in Texas, where the marquee matchup is Gov. Rick Perry’s GOP primary with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The Hutchison post-mortems are already being written, even though the race might not be over for another six weeks. Perry’s team is pushing hard to break 50 percent and avoid a runoff, because waiting in the wings is a Democratic candidate that Texas Republicans take very seriously – Houston Mayor Bill White. And in spite of that fact that Hutchison has tanked in her primary, Democrats thought she would be the tougher general election matchup. Their dream is that she has a stronger-than-expected primary showing and uses that to create a bloody and expensive runoff.

UPDATE: This post had incorrectly described Cates as a dentist. He is a cardiologist.

It was a bad day to be a New York Democrat on Thursday. On the same day Gov. David Paterson had a long-awaited bomb dropped on him by the New York Times, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) was found to have broken House rules by the House Ethics Committee. Rangel was found to have knowingly accepted Caribbean trips prohibited by House rules, while Paterson will be under growing pressure to resign after a report that he and state police intervened in a top aide’s domestic violence case. The Rangel news broke late Thursday, leaving little time for fallout. As for Paterson, state Democrats have been somewhat reticent to speak out on the matter. So far, Rep. Dan Maffei and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand have taken the bait. The New York Daily News headline read simply: “Time to go.” If Paterson tries to hold on, though, look for more and more big party figures to start going public with their dismay. There has been a constant dance with Paterson, with establishment types not wanting to look too eager in forcing him out of the race, despite their preference for state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Adding intrigue to injury is the fact that Paterson has asked Cuomo, his potential primary opponent, to investigate the matter.

Murtha seat update

Democrats in the late Rep. John Murtha’s (D-Pa.) district set March 6 as the day they will recommend a candidate to the state executive committee, and shortly thereafter, the field shrunk by one candidate. Former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel abruptly withdrew from the race Thursday. Republicans meanwhile, still have yet to see their field grow. With so many races around the country filling up fast, it’s interesting that a special election isn’t drawing the same kind of GOP interest, at least yet. Businessman Tim Burns and 2008 nominee William Russell remain the only two GOP candidates.

Defining the outsiders

The Democratic campaign committees have been attacking GOP frontrunners and promoting the conservative underdogs who face them in races around the country. But they are moving to attack the outsiders too. As Marco Rubio has ascended, the national Democratic Party has moved to go after him, in addition to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Yesterday, the party hit Rubio hard amidst revelations that he charged personal expenses to a Florida GOP American Express card. The DSCC also included a few outsider candidates Thursday, including Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore in California, in releases aiming to put them on the record for their health care ideas. And in Alabama, the DCCC hit Angela McGlowan and Henry Ross, along with frontrunning state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, on Social Security privatization. If these outsiders can win, they of course need to be defined early too.

A bipartisan health care summit today is expected to be high political theater, with both sides digging in for what many are skeptical will be productive public talks. Former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) remarked recently that he was going to pop some popcorn in anticipation of the event’s theatrics. Think of when Republicans bounced questions off President Obama in Baltimore a couple weeks ago. Of course, “political theater” is in the eye of the beholder and the news media, and much of the perception of the event will rest on the latter. We’ll see who can spin this one the best; the stakes are high.

The most interesting race in the country

More intrigue in Florida, where leaked documents from the state party show former state House Speaker Marco Rubio spent $110,000 on the state party’s credit card in a little more than two years. Rubio’s campaign barked back, accusing former state party Chairman Jim Greer, a Charlie Crist ally, of being behind the leak. Republican National Committeewoman Sharon Day defended Rubio and said Greer had promised to bring others down with him when he was being removed as state party chairman. This is getting ugly.

The Pennsylvania problem

Both Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) now trail former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) by double digits, according to a new Franklin and Marshall poll. Specter is behind 44-34, while Sestak is back 38-20. If you had told anybody that Toomey would have that kind of lead a year ago, you might have been shipped to the mental institution. Recall that some Republicans, when Specter was their man, openly questioned whether Toomey could even win a general election in Pennsylvania. And those were just the ones saying it publicly. Of course, there are plenty of undecideds here, and Sestak remains largely unknown. But still, perhaps more than any other state, the polls in blue Pennsylvania have been shocking.

DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez (N.J.) will volley with reporters this morning at 9 a.m. at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast. The breakfast, which was added to the CSM’s lineup earlier this week, should include plenty of expectation-setting and soothsaying. Look for Menendez to emphasize Republican primaries and the preparedness of his top Democratic candidates. The expectations game is key for any campaign committee chairman, and it will be interesting to see how Menendez handles it.

Gunning for Young Guns

The NRCC is holding a roundtable with all 10 of its top Young Guns recruits. While many have been added to the program, the candidates talking with reporters today are the ones who have attained the top step of the program: Martha Roby (Ala.-2), Tim Griffin (Ark.-2), Dennis Ross (Fla.-12), Allen West (Fla.-22), Vaughn Ward (Idaho-1), Andy Harris (Md.-1), former Rep. Steve Pearce (N.M.-2), former Rep. Steve Chabot (Ohio-1), Steve Stivers (Ohio-15) and Pat Meehan (Pa.-7).

The return of Chafee

A new Brown University poll shows former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, now an independent, leading the race for governor in Rhode Island. Chafee’s 34 percent take can be largely attributed to the fact that he has pretty high name ID, but it also shows what a well-known political figure can do as an independent. One wonders if Charlie Crist will take a hard look at those numbers and reevaluate his own party choice, especially after what happened to Chafee in the 2008 Senate race. Democrat Frank Caprio is at 28 percent, and Republican John Robitaille is at 12 percent.

Fisher rises slightly; Portman ahead

Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is a strong favorite to take the Democratic nomination for Senate, but 48 percent of primary voters are still undecided in a new Quinnipiac poll. At the same time, he has opened up a 29-20 lead over cash-strapped Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. That’s up from 24-22 in the last Q poll. In the general election, Fisher trails Portman slightly, 40-37. An interesting note from Q’s analysis: "Ohio voters have a net positive image of the Tea Party movement, but net negative views of the Republican and Democratic parties."

It’s on in Kentucky, where Trey Grayson launched his first GOP Senate primary ad and Rand Paul launched a response ad within 12 hours. Kudos to the Paul campaign on the rapid response. Grayson went negative, and Paul immediately went up with an ad rebutting Grayson’s claims AND attaching him to President Obama. Combined with the narrative of Grayson going negative early, this could be a win for Paul. Grayson’s ad is a little smoother, but it’s notable that Paul’s campaign is on the ball and able to respond quickly. There have been questions about just how good his campaign operation will be.

Waiting on Hill

Rep. Baron Hill’s (D-Ind.) decision to entertain a Senate campaign is troubling for Democrats, but don’t count on him running. Hill has eyed the governor’s mansion in 2012, and his comments saying he will look at a Senate bid don’t exactly sound like those of a probable candidate. It’s possible that Hill feels a little slighted being passed over in favor of Ellsworth while Hill was out of the country on a congressional delegation. It’s easy to see him inserting his name into the dialogue for a few days and then stepping aside gracefully. If, for some reason, he did challenge Ellsworth for the nomination, both his and Ellsworth’s House seats became GOP-favored.

Rubio to … South Carolina?

Marco Rubio is heading to the presidential primary state of South Carolina in what is looking more and more like a PR mistake. Rubio is surging in the polls in his Senate primary with Gov. Charlie Crist, but now that he’s looking more and more like the favorite in that race, the honeymoon is over. The press will look for chinks in the armor, and a multi-stop tour with Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) can make it sound an awful lot like Rubio is looking beyond 2010 and toward 2012. Look for the media to run with that narrative.

Mitch Daniels too?

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’s (R) Sherman-esque statements about not running for president in 2012 no longer apply. The governor, who has emerged as a potentially strong outsider candidate, is now leaving the door open to pursuing a challenge to Obama. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on, as one of the few governors to remain popular – and win reelection – in a difficult economic time.

Check out my story today on the situation in New York's 23rd district. Doug Hoffman is again lining up big-name support, but he's fighting a different battle with Republicans this time around.