A handful of Senate races that were once considered toss-ups have shifted considerably in the direction of the GOP in recent weeks, while at least one other Senate contest has become a somewhat unexpected toss-up.
In the latest update of our race ratings, three Senate races have shifted from "toss-up" to "lean Republican," and 15 House seats move further in the direction of the GOP.
The one bit of good news for Democrats comes from Delaware, where a Senate seat that was once considered safely Republican now appears solidly in the Democratic column ahead of November.
Pennsylvania Senate (OPEN): from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." Pennsylvania’s open seat now appears destined to fall into Republican hands. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) has consistently led in recent polls. Some surveys show him ahead of Rep. Joe Sestak by as many as 9 points, and he’s even within the margin of error in the Democrat’s House district. Without a major momentum swing, the admiral could go down with the ship.
Florida Senate (OPEN): from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." Republican Marco Rubio is expanding on his lead in recent Florida polls and took in a whopping $5 million in contributions in the third quarter. Democrat Kendrick Meek’s problem was highlighted this week when the Sierra Club co-endorsed him and Gov. Charlie Crist (I). With Meek and Crist splitting the left-leaning vote, this seat leans toward Rubio.
Ohio Senate (OPEN): from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." In Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher’s campaign has been hamstrung by staff shake-ups and weak fundraising. A campaign memo that was leaked recently showed nothing’s changed — Fisher was actually considering cutting staff to free up money for more TV ads. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) is a formidable candidate, despite his ties to George W. Bush’s unpopular administration. Ohio and Florida aside, there is some good news for Democrats.
Delaware Senate (OPEN): from "LEAN DEMOCRATIC" to "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC." Republican Christine O’Donnell has yet to solidify her base, and with so little time left before Election Day, Democrat Chris Coons is likely to hold Vice President Joe Biden’s former seat.
West Virginia Senate (OPEN): from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Gov. Joe Manchin's (D) lead has completely evaporated in the special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D). The latest polling shows Republican businessman John Raese in the lead as he continues to hammer Manchin with TV ads tying him to President Obama. Former President Bill Clinton is heading to the state to campaign for Manchin next week, though, and the Democrat was handed an opening given a still unfolding controversy over the language in a casting call for a GOP campaign ad, which called for actors with a "hickey" look.
House:
On the House side, eight Democratic incumbents move from our "lean Democratic" category into "toss-up": Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.-2), Harry Mitchell (Ariz.-3), Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.-8), Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.-24), Bill Foster (Ill.-14), John Adler (N.J.-3), John Boccieri (Ohio-16) and Patrick Murphy (Pa.-8).
In all of these districts, Republicans have touted internal polls that show the incumbents in trouble, and public polling data has confirmed these members are very much on the ropes ahead of November.
In Ohio's 16th District, new numbers from The Hill midterm poll show Boccieri trailing his Republican challenger Jim Renacci 42 percent to 39 percent.
In New Jersey, a Monmouth University/Gannett poll from the end of September showed Republican challenger and former NFL football player Jon Runyan within 3 points of Adler, whose reelection campaign was thrown into turmoil Friday after a report that his campaign helped a manufactured Tea Party candidate get on November's ballot to siphon away votes from Runyan.
Our "lean Republican" category on the House side has grown by another five races. Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.-1), Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.-3), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio-15) and Glenn Nye (Va.-2) have all shifted to "lean Republican" given public polling data that has shown their reelection contests increasingly imperiled.
In the latest round of numbers from The Hill midterm poll, all five members trail their Republican challengers and show weaknesses with independents. In Illinois, Halvorson is down 18 points to Republican Adam Kinzinger, and in Pennsylvania, Dahlkemper trails by 13 points.
The Republican Governors Association is holding off on releasing its third quarter fundraising numbers until next week, a spokesman said. The RGA's delay comes as the Democratic Governors Association announced Friday it had raised a "record" amount in the last quarter.
The DGA raised $10 million in the third quarter, its "third consecutive record-breaking quarter," according to a release. The committee now has $13 million cash on hand.
Moreover, independent groups the DGA supports — including Lone Star First in Texas, Building a Stronger Ohio and Bay State Future in Massachusetts — have an additional $3 million on hand.
In the second quarter, the DGA trailed its Republican counterpart in fundraising. It pulled in $9.1 million, which was less than half of what the RGA raised. The RGA raised $18.9 million in the second quarter, when it reported having some $40 million banked.
The DGA spent only $14 million in 2006.
The DGA's chairman said voters will have a clear "choice" in November. "In one, we will help middle class families continue to recover from this economic crisis. In the other, our country will revert to the same policies that caused this mess in the first place," Delaware Gov. Jack Markell (D) said in a statement.
The campaign of Rep. John Adler (D-N.J.), who faces a serious GOP challenge this fall, is being accused of manufacturing a Tea Party candidate in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district to help the incumbent's reelection bid.
A report in Friday's Courier Postpoints the finger at Adler consultant Steve Ayscue and Geoff Mackler, who was sent by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to head up Adler's reelection campaign.
According to the paper, the two recruited Democratic volunteers at a meeting in May to gather signatures to get Peter DeStefano on the ballot in the hopes that he would siphon off votes from Republican challenger Jon Runyan. DeStefano will appear on the "NJ Tea Party" ballot line in November.
From the report:
Ayscue and Mackler had a plan to ensure Adler's victory. They just needed volunteers.
Internal numbers-crunching showed the difference between Adler and his Republican opponent — then undetermined — would hover around 5 percent. To give Adler an edge, Ayscue had recruited a then-unidentified man to run as a third-party candidate.
That candidate would act as a conservative spoiler to confuse voters and pull votes from Adler's eventual Republican challenger. But first he had to get on the ballot. With the filing deadline just weeks away, CCDC [Camden County Democratic Committee] needed volunteers to hit the streets and collect signatures — fast.
…
Several Democratic operatives who attended the May 26 meeting, or who have direct knowledge of the campaign or CCDC operations, spoke about the DeStefano plan on condition of anonymity, telling the Courier-Post they had ethical qualms with the Adler campaign. At least one pointed out the plan is already ostensibly working, since absentee ballots are being cast.
Sources said Adler's congressional and campaign staff carried out the plan with the help of CCDC staffers and volunteers.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is beefing up its ad spending again this week, according to independent expenditure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
The committee is up with more than $4.2 million in additional ad spending this week, with nearly $350,000 going toward an ad buy targeting Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.), who has emerged as one of the committee's top IE targets so far this cycle.
The NRCC targeted the incumbent with a similarly sized ad buy in last week's round of IE spending. Schauer faces a rematch with former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) this fall.
Other recurring NRCC targets this week: Reps. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.). The committee is up with new six-figure ad buys in each of those target districts.
The NRCC is also hitting Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) with a nearly $200,000 ad buy and Reps. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D-S.D.), Baron Hill (D-Ind.) and Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.).
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee went up Tuesday with its first ad targeting Republican businessman John Raese in West Virginia's special Senate election.
"He wants to eliminate the minimum wage, failed to pay workers compensation for on the job injuries," the ad's narrator says. "But one thing John Raese does support: a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations that ship our jobs overseas."
West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) finds himself beating back an unexpectedly strong challenge from Raese in the special election to serve out the remainder of the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) term.
Privately, Democrats say they're confident Raese will fade as Manchin and the national party continue to aim their fire at him. But the DSCC's spending shows Democrats are worried about another seat that wasn't expected to be competitive moving toward the GOP.
The race is emerging as a top battleground between the two national party committees. The DSCC spot follows an ad buy last week from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is spending $1.2 million over a two week period on an ad tying Manchin (D) to President Obama and Democrats in Washington.
Manchin was thought to have an easy road to the Senate this fall after Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) declined to run against him leaving the stage to the self-funding Raese who lost by a wide margin to Byrd in 2006.
But recent polls have shown the souring national environment for Democrats and President Obama's unpopularity in the state are dragging Manchin down.
The NRSC followed the DSCC's first ad by highlighting its new anti-Manchin radio spot Tuesday that labels Manchin "Washington Joe."
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) jumped into West Virginia's special Senate election Friday, releasing an ad slamming Gov. Joe Manchin (D) for supporting "Barack Obama's big-government agenda."
Recent polling has shown a much closer race than had been expected to fill out the term of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), with Republican businessman John Raese in a dead heat with Manchin, according to the latest numbers from Public Policy.
The NRSC ad echoes the message the largely self-funding Raese has already been hitting Manchin with on the airwaves.
"Manchin supported Obama's stimulus plan that wasted $800 billion, increased debt and unemployment got worse," the ad's narrator says. "Manchin supported the government takeover of healthcare that cuts Medicare and raises costs."
The 30-second spot ends with a shot of Manchin and a smiling President Obama.
The NRSC's investment is a sizable one — according to a party source, the committee is spending $1.2 million total over the next two weeks on the buy, including spending in the D.C. market. It shows the national party is convinced the state is firmly in play this fall.
Two-term Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) is down big to former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), according to a new poll out Thursday on the race in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.
The new Franklin and Marshall poll gives Murphy a14-point lead among likely voters in a race that's a rematch of the 2006 contest in the district in which Murphy first ousted Fitzpatrick during a favorable year for Democrats.
Fitzpatrick leads Murphy 49 percent to 35 percent among likely voters in the poll.
President Obama's popularity is also a factor in this race. Even though Obama won the 8th District over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) two years ago, his approval rating is now less than 40 percent in the district.
Murphy had an easy go of it in 2008, winning reelection with 57 percent of the vote over Republican Tom Manion. But Fitzpatrick poses a much tougher test for the incumbent this fall. Murphy defeated Fitzpatrick by less than 2,000 votes to win his first term in '06.
Fitzpatrick has already been the beneficiary of help from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which launched an independent expenditure ad targeting Murphy last week.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is up with a new spot attacking Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) in the race to fill President Obama's former Senate seat.
The open-seat race would be a huge prize for Republicans if Kirk was able to top Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in November. The latest polling has the race in a dead heat.
The DSCC ad marks the first spot from either national committee in the race, though the National Republican Senatorial Committee has already pledged $3.4 million in coordinated money for Kirk.
The 30-second ad hits Kirk's July votes against the extension of unemployment benefits. "We've heard a lot about Mark Kirk's problems lately, but Kirk doesn't know much about ours," the ad says. "On unemployment, Kirk said, 'I've heard very little. I have a very high-income district.' "
The Kirk campaign hit back against the ad quickly Tuesday labeling it "misleading." The campaign said Kirk has voted to extend unemployment benefits a total of six times and has said he would do so again as long as the extension doesn't add to the deficit.
The campaign also pointed out that the Kirk quote the DSCC ad relied on came in 2008, "when unemployment stood at 5.5%."
The DSCC is already spending aggressively in both Colorado and Pennsylvania. The committee has sunk more than $1.5 million into ad buys against Ken Buck in Colorado and more than $2.5 million opposing former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). The committee is also spending in Delaware, where Democrat Chris Coons is now the prohibitive favorite thanks to Tea Party-backed Christine O'Donnell's GOP primary win, and in Missouri.
The NRSC has spent more than half a million on TV buys in both Colorado and Kentucky, where Republican Rand Paul is in a tight race against Democrat Jack Conway.
In response to the DSCC's ad buy in Illinois, NRSC Communications Director Brian Walsh highlighted the financial commitment Republicans have already made to Kirk. "After they saw what happened to Broadway Bank investors and the Bright Start families, is it any wonder that national Democrats don't seem to trust Alexi Giannoulias with their money?" asked Walsh.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) continues to trail badly in fundraising. It pulled in $7.9 million in August — of which $7.57 million came from contributions to the committee.
The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, raised $10.9 million last month.
The RNC will have to rely heavily on debt to get it through the next six weeks. The committee has only about $4.7 million cash on hand, but has a $10 million line of credit it hasn't yet drawn upon, according to a party official.
The committee's cash on hand dropped about $500,000 in August from $5.29 million in July.
The DNC has $13.4 in cash reserves as it looks to help bolster the party’s chances of holding power. The committee also has a line of credit to reinforce its spending power.
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