Dem primaries

If you need a little more of a primer for today's precinct caucuses in Colorado, check out my story from a couple of weeks ago about the Democratic primary.

Put plainly, this is a big day for Andrew Romanoff, and most Democrats agree that he needs to make a statement. Whether that comes with his showing at the caucuses or with a strong quarter of fundraising, he needs something.

When it comes to the Pennsylvania Senate race, it really depends upon whom you ask.

After a pair of polls showing Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) leading former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) came out last week, a new one shows Toomey right back in the lead.

Susquehanna has Toomey ahead 42-36. The same poll in October had Specter up 42-41. The October poll tested registered voters, which has generally cast Specter in a better light, while the newer poll was conducted among likely voters.

Specter's primary opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), was not tested in either a Democratic primary or the general election, for some reason.

Maybe that Quinnipiac poll wasn't an outlier.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) has overtaken former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in a second-straight poll, showing a 47-41 lead in a Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos.

Quinnipiac had Specter up 49-42 last week, but the two polls are the first since October to show the incumbent with a lead. Toomey had shown leads upwards of double digits in some polls.

It's hard to see what might have provided Specter with such a bump, but his favorability numbers have rebounded remarkably. Research 2000 has him at 48 percent favorability. Late last year, he was stuck in the 30s with high unfavorables.

Specter holds a 51-32 lead over Rep. Joe Sestak in their May 18 primary. Toomey leads Sestak 42-39 in another potential general election matchup.

Former Colorado Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) is in a statistical tie with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) heading into their party's precinct caucuses next week, according to a Public Policy Polling (D) survey.

The Colorado Senate race has lacked much in the way on non-Rasmussen polling. While that firm has shown Norton with a significant lead on Bennet, the new PPP survey and a January Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos have shown the race effectively tied.

PPP has both candidates at 43 percent while Research 2000 had Bennet up 40-39.

First, though, both Norton and Bennet face key tests when party activists begin weighing in next week. Bennet is facing a primary challenge from state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who could make a strong showing in the caucuses. Norton could also face some anti-establishment fervor, with Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck beating her in a series of recent straw polls.

Precincts caucuses eventually lead to a state assembly, where Romanoff or Buck could get a boost with a win.

Romanoff leads Norton 44-39 in a prospective general election matchup.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), a holdout on the Democrats' health reform bill, will face a primary challenger in the fall.

Connie Saltonstall, a businesswoman and former county commissioner, will face off against the anti-abortion rights Democrat, according to media outlets.

Stupak's decision to withhold his vote on the healthcare bill has rankled pro-abortion rights Democrats and the party's leadership, who wants to pass the bill quickly. The congressman, who was elected in 1992, has threatened to whip at least 12 votes against the bill unless the abortion language is somehow changed.

The last time Stupak faced a primary challenger was 2000, when he beat his opponent 89 to 11, according to CNN. 

Saltonstall cited the congressman's abortion stance for launching her candidacy.

Stupak's spokesperson told CNN "The congressman is not surprised by a primary opponent considering the recent controversy surrounding the Stupak Amendment and health care. He plans to prepare for an aggressive, spirited primary race."

Republicans aren't exactly trumpeting their chances in the race for John Murtha's seat, but the Democratic race is slowly devolving into something that could open the door.

Former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer is still crying foul about the process that nominated former Murtha district director Mark Critz for the special election on Monday, and now the state Democratic Party is fighting back.

State Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney had some choice words for Hafer, who suggested the process might have been fixed for Critz.

“Barbara’s free to disparage whatever she chooses to, and on any given day she’s disparaging something different,” Rooney told Pa2010.com. “One day it’s Mark Critz, another day it’s the process, another day it’s John Murtha. I think there are people in the 12th district wondering if Barbara will ever get around to talking about what she believes in."

Rooney continued: "It’s time she get over it, because it’s been decided, it’s done, and it’s time to move on. I would encourage all Democrats to get behind this candidate, because the Republican Party is going to make this special election a national election."

Hafer is still running in the Democratic primary for the general election, which will be held the same day as the special election on May 18.

Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) will have to fend off a primary challenge again this year after almost losing a primary battle in 2008.

Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mother of disgraced former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, will face a challenge from state Sen. Hansen Clarke in the Democratic primary, the Detroit Free Press reported Monday.

The challenge comes after Cheeks Kilpatrick narrowly survived a three-way primary with just over 39 percent of the vote, with two other Democratic state lawmakers splitting the rest of the vote. The strong primary challenge came on the heels of her son's legal woes and eventual resignation as mayor, a political scandal which is still reverberating in the Detroit media.

Clarke said he hoped to raise $500,000 for the race, which is well more than the two candidates to unseat Cheeks Kilpatrick, who reported having $347,000 in cash on hand at the end of 2009.

"I'm from the neighborhood. I'm a guy from the streets," he said. "So I don't think we're going to need a lot of money for commercials."

Clarke represents Michigan's 1st senate district, which falls squarely within Cheeks Kilpatrick's territory.

The winner of the primary will likely be the favorite to win the Detroit-area district in the general election.

Rep. Mel Watt (D-N.C.) has endorsed attorney Kenneth Lewis in the Democratic primary to face Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.).

Lewis is an underdog for the Democratic nomination, with former state Sen. Cal Cunningham receiving early support from national Democratic leaders and North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall beginning the race as the best-known candidate.

Watt and Lewis are close, though, and it's not a big surprise that Watt, as a member of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) is endorsing the only black candidate in the race.

"What I have observed in Ken Lewis over the years of our friendship is a person with the intellect, integrity and judgment to decide what's right and to do it, knowing when to stand firm and when to compromise to move our country forward beyond gridlock," Watt said.

Hornell, N.Y., Mayor Shawn Hogan (D) is taking his name out of the running for Rep. Eric Massa's (D-N.Y.) seat.

Hogan made the announcement this morning, prior to Massa's expected resignation at 5 p.m. eastern time.

Hogan said he will honor his commitment to the city he serves.

"I choose not to run, not because I am afraid of the challenge; I still have a great desire to serve," he said. "However, the atmosphere in politics today is toxic, fueled by extremism on both sides of the aisle. Americans deserve and want leadership from our elected officials, not 30-second sound bites and destructive behavior. We need honor and common sense in Washington and Albany."

Corning Mayor Tom Reed is running on the GOP side but could face opposition for the nomination from former Rep. Randy Kuhl and/or Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks.

It's not year clear when the special election will be held. Gov. David Paterson (D) has plenty of lattitude in determining the date.

UPDATE 4:15 p.m.: Another Democrat takes a pass, as Monroe County District Attorney Mike Green joins Hogan on the sidelines.

Kentucky primary voters appear to be spurning the establishment.

Anti-establishment candidates Rand Paul and Daniel Mongiardo have opened up wide leads in their respective Senate primaries, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

The survey shows Paul, an eye surgeon and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), leading Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson 42-27 on the GOP side and Mongiardo, the state's lieutenant governor, leading Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway 45-27 among Democrats.

The poll also reinforced the toss-up nature of the general election, with Republicans holding a statistically insignificant 43-42 lead on the generic ballot.

Results of head-to-head general election matchups were not provided in the poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 likely primary voters overall and was conducted for local media outlets.

All four candidates recently went up with their first TV ads. The primary is set for May 18.