Dem primaries

Democrats face a delicate situation in the fall if their nominee to finish Giffords's term wins a June special election.

Reps. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Mark Critz (D-Pa.) are up with dueling ads in their House primary battle.

The fiscally conservative Blue Dog PAC endorsed Hayden Rogers, who is running to replace his boss, Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.).

Democrats view Rogers as their strongest chance to hold the Republican-heavy seat left open by Shuler's retirement. Rogers knows the district well: he was Shuler's campaign manager during his upset win in 2006 and has been his chief of staff ever since.

"Working closely with Hayden, I have seen his commitment to Blue Dog principles," said Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah), co-chairman of the Blue Dog PAC. "As a former small business owner and Congressman Shuler's chief of staff, Hayden has been an invaluable voice in the Blue Dogs' efforts to encourage private sector job creation and reduce unnecessary and burdensome regulations that slow growth. We are proud to endorse his candidacy today."

Retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) will not endorse former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) in a Democratic primary. 

Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich will be on the primary ballot Tuesday, but only one will be left standing.

Rep. Jason Altmire may be barred from running in the Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Mark Critz.

Democrats were left without a top-tier challenger to freshman Rep. Tim Griffin (R-Ark.) and didn't get their top candidate to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), leaving them in a weak position for 2012 as Arkansas's election filing period closed Thursday.

Democrats held three of the state's four House seats before the 2010 elections, but now face the very real possibility of being shut out there after 2012.

Former state Rep. Jay Martin (D), the Democrats' preferred candidate to challenge Griffin, changed his mind shortly before the filing deadline and decided not to run. Martin is the second potentially strong candidate to decide against a run this week: State Democratic Party Chairman Will Bond also announced shortly before the filing deadline that he wouldn't challenge Griffin.

The filing deadline for the seat was Thursday. Democrats' top remaining candidate for the seat is former state Rep. Herb Rule (D), who hasn't held political office in nearly 30 years.

The district is GOP-leaning at the presidential level but was long held by conservative Democrats, and is the most Democratic district in the state. Under the new lines, President Obama would have won 44 percent of its vote in 2008.

In the race to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), Democrats failed to land any of their initial recruits, although they have 2010 Senate candidate D.C. Morrison, pastor and attorney Q. Byrum Hurst and state Sen. Gene Jeffress in the race. Republicans have a number of candidates, including former U.S. Army Capt. Tom Cotton, whom many conservative groups have endorsed.

This district would have given Obama just 37 percent of its vote under the new lines, and will be a tough seat for Democrats to hold.

The lack of a strong candidate here hurts their chances at retaking control of the House, which they need 26 seats to win.

They had better success recruiting against freshman Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), with a few potentially strong recruits including state Rep. Clark Hall (D). While this district is also GOP-leaning, this might be their best shot at winning one of the four seats in the state: Polls have shown Crawford may be vulnerable to a challenge here, and the district has a large number of African Americans who are likely to come out to vote because of President Obama's presence on the ticket.

This post was updated at 10:40 a.m.

Rep. Carnahan decided to run against Dem Rep. Lacy Clay instead of running in a GOP-leaning district.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) has a 13-point lead over Rep. Don Manzullo (R-Ill.) in their primary match-up, according to a new poll.

Kinzinger holds a 47-34 percent lead over Manzullo, according to the poll, conducted by pollster We Ask America.

Kinzinger won his seat convincingly in 2010, but his district was dismantled by redistricting. He decided to run in a new district that included some of his old territory as well as much of longtime Rep. Manzullo's.

The pollster also surveyed the Democrat-on-Democrat primary between Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (Ill.) and former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (Ill.), and showed Jackson Jr. with a 54-32 percent edge. The district is heavily African-American and covers much of his old territory, but Halvorson was banking on Jackson's ongoing ethics issues to make the race close.

Both polls were conducted in the last few days. The GOP poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent, while the Democratic poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7.

The Illinois primary is about one month away.

Obama is playing an active role in Democratic primaries this cycle, triggering behind-the-scenes lobbying efforts to nab the coveted endorsement.