Dem primaries

For those following tonight's primary results in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio, make sure to follow us on Twitter for live-tweeting throughout the night. We'll get you the latest results fast and keep you up to date on what the numbers mean.

Aaron is @aablake

Sean is @sjlmiller

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has openly backed Specter over Sestak, but actually spending money is a more unusual step.

Multiple polls now show that in the aftermath of Sestak's first paid media blitz, the congressman has come within single digits of the former Republican senator in their Democratic primary in two weeks.

A Quinnipiac poll today shows Specter leading 47-39, and polls from Rasmussen and Muhlenberg College also show him within single digits. 

Quinnipiac's numbers are particularly noteworthy, given that they showed Specter leading 53-32 a month ago. Since then, however, Sestak has begun to unleash his $5 million war chest, and it appears to have paid some dividends.

But much is yet-to-be-determined. Nearly half of voters don't know Sestak well enough to rate his favorability, while Specter is almost universally known.

Look for this race to get dirty in the short time before the May 18 primary. Specter is known as a brawler, and he's got a fight on his hands.

It’s the first Super Tuesday of 2010, and both parties are waiting to see if anti-incumbent fever hits their candidates.

Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) doesn't need to sweat his primary on Tuesday, according to a new poll.

The Suffolk University poll shows Fisher with a nearly 30-point lead, 55-27, over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.

The two had polled within single digits of each other since the start of the race, but now two polls this week show Brunner fighting a a losing battle. Quinnipiac University had him up 41-24, and now Suffolk shows him in with a clear lock on the nomination.

Democratic efforts to take down Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) are crashing and burning this cycle.

The party lost its chosen candidate in the race, state Rep. Todd Book, in late 2009, and now the new frontrunner, David Krikorian, is being rebuked from all sides by his own party a week before the primary.

Democratic chairmen from the state party, Hamilton County and Clermont County have all sent letters to Krikorian faulting him for comments he reportedly made about another primary candidate's Indian name. According to reports, he suggested the candidate, Surya Yalamanchili, stood no chance as the party's nominee because of his name.

"We are a party that proudly values diversity and inclusiveness,” state party chairman Chris Redfern wrote to Krikorian. “Your words fall short of these ideals.”

The story of Krikorian and the Democratic Party is a long and torturous one. He might well have cost the party the seat in 2008 by taking 18 percent of the vote running as an independent, while Schmidt beat Democrat Victoria Wulsin with just a plurality -- 45 percent.

When he announced he would run as a Democrat this cycle, the reaction was hardly one of embrace. Even though Krikorian was the most successful independent federal candidate in the country in 2008, the party wanted nothing to do with him and instead recruited Book.

When that didn't work out, the race essentially fell off the party's radar. Though it began the cycle as a top target, when the party announced a list of 26 targets in January, Schmidt's seat was nowhere to be seen.

By going after one of their own, Democratic leaders are basically throwing in the towel on this one. Yalamanchili has raised less than $70,000 for the primary and doesn't appear to be a serious competitor in a district that went 59 percent for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-Pa.) campaign says a quote attributed to the senator today, in which he reminisces about his days as a Republican, didn't provide the full picture.

The Allentown Morning Call reported that Specter said this in an interview:

"Well, I probably shouldn't say this. But I have thought from time to time that I might have helped the country more if I'd stayed a Republican."

Specter's campaign just blasted an e-mail that says an important clause was left off the quote, and that it should read as follows:

"Well, I probably shouldn’t say this, but I have thought from time to time that I might have helped the country more if I’d stayed Republican and tried to bring people across the aisle on healthcare. I might have brought a few across the aisle.”

The meaning of the first quote is intact, but the elaboration provided in the full quote provides some important context. The second quote certainly makes it sound less like his pining for the days when he was in the good ole' GOP, and more like he wishes he could have facilitated some bipartisanship in a city that is sorely lacking it.

Update 2:57 p.m.: Morning Call state editor Pete Leffler (who is not the author of the story) responds: "The Morning Call precisely conveyed everything Sen. Specter said in a way not open to interpretation."

Reports of Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher's (D) demise appear to be premature.

Through signs of potential trouble in his Tuesday Senate primary with the underfunded Jennifer Brunner, Fisher has opened up a 17-point lead in the latest Quinnipiac poll of the race. He leads the Secretary of State 41-24 after holding just a 33-26 lead in the last Q poll.

Perhaps most notable in Quinnipiac's new numbers is the following: Fisher is leading Brunner 43-24 among women, which is even better than his numbers among men. Without a majority of women, Brunner stands virtually no chance.

Fisher, who had yet to lead by double digits in any other polling on the race, has opened the lead thanks to a $900,000 cable media buy and more than $3 million spent overall. Brunner has spent less than $1 million.

That Fisher has been able to use his large cash advantage to open up a lead on Brunner is not surprising. It would have been more noteworthy if he hadn't been able to do so. Still, the poll is likely to sooth some Democratic worries about Fisher's fate on Tuesday.

He'll be a heavy favorite, but the primary has cost him most of his money. If he wins the primary, the two months of fundraising between May 4 and the end of June will be massive for his campaign's prospects.

Michael J. Fox is making his return to the midterm elections after cutting ads for two Senate hopefuls in 2006. 

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall holds a small lead heading into the final week of her Democratic Senate primary with Cal Cunningham, but the two could be headed to a runoff.

A Public Policy Polling (D) survey and a SurveyUSA poll both show Marshall with a small lead in the primary, which will be held next Tuesday. But there remain plenty of undecided voters in the state, where neither candidate has had much in the way of a media presence.

Marshall leads Cunningham 23-19 in the SurveyUSA poll and 26-23 in the PPP poll. In both surveys, 34 percent of voters are undecided.

If enough of those voters go to other candidates, like attorney Kenneth Lewis, that could hold both Marshall and Cunningham below 40 percent, which would mean a two-candidate runoff on April 22. That's a long runoff, and it would all be time that the two won't be focusing their time and resources on Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and his $5 million war chest.

It's looking especially tough for Cunningham to win the primary outright next week. He would have to win at least half of those undecided voters and/or steal some support from his opponents.

Conversely, if it does go to a runoff, Cunningham will probably be the favorite. He has suffered from a lack of name recognition, but he has been raising money faster than Marshall. Presumably, he would be on TV more during the runoff, which would help him overcome Marshall's statewide profile.