The strength of Mitt Romney's war chest — expected to be between $15 million and $20 million — will be the yardstick against which other GOP presidential candidates' are measured.
The former Massachusetts governor's official second-quarter haul will become known in the next few weeks. He faced high expectations after having raised $10 million in pledges during a single day of calls, which his campaign sought to tamp down on.
Only three GOP presidential contenders — former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) and pizza magnate Herman Cain (R) — have released their second-quarter numbers; none of them came close to Romney's suspected haul.
Pawlenty raised $4.2 million, a figure considered relatively disappointing for a candidate of his stature, while Huntsman raised $4.1 million, a figure padded in part by self-contributions from his personal fortune. Cain said last week that he'd raised just under $2.5 million.
Meanwhile, Rep. Michele BachmannMichele BachmannWill Trump back women’s museum? Michele Bachmann on Trump victory: ‘God did this’ The right-wing wants a revolution, and we had better pay attention MORE (R-Minn.) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) have yet to release their numbers.
Bachmann turned heads earlier this year after boasting that her combined funds (from her congressional campaign and her PAC) were greater than Romney's first-quarter haul. She's unlikely to come close to repeating that this quarter, but as she surges in the polls, her fundraising report could provide some indication of her traction.
By contrast, Gingrich's report will provide some indication of just how much his campaign was crippled by the departure of top aides and finance officials in the last month. He set low expectations over the weekend, telling the Los Angeles Times that his numbers "will not be as good as we would like, and candidly, the consultants left us in debt."
Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) was a fundraising machine during his 2008 presidential campaign, drawing on the fervor of grassroots supports to fund his so-called "money bombs." His quarterly filing will be a test of whether those intense supporters will still drive his 2012 effort, financially and otherwise.
And, in terms of possible candidates, observers will be watching former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) Sarah PAC for signs of strength, especially after the bus tour she took last month that received heavy media attention, along with a revamped website and online operation for the PAC.
However, the combined totals of all the GOP contenders are unlikely to come close to President Obama's second-quarter total. His campaign set a $60 million goal but hasn't released its official haul.
Fundraising totals also started to emerge for Senate candidates Tuesday.
The race is expected to be one of the more expensive in the country, with two well-connected candidates squaring off.
"We are pleased with how many people are responding to this campaign in its first weeks," said Kaine spokesperson Brandi Hoffine. She said the campaign's primary focus for the coming months will be "building on our strong network of grassroots supporters who have already committed to helping elect Governor Kaine to the U.S. Senate and making sure every Virginia voter has the opportunity to hear his plans for creating jobs, growing our economy and restoring fiscal discipline in Washington."
Allen spokesperson Bill Riggs derided Kaine's numbers as the result of "liberal special interests," and described Kaine as a reliable supporter of "President Obama and the Washington Democrats’ pro-spending, pro-union, pro-big government policies."
On the Republican side, recently appointed Sen. Dean HellerDean HellerGovernments and businesses: Teaming up for taxpayers GOP senator won't rule out 2018 run for Nevada governor A holiday surprise: Will Congress protect privacy? MORE (R-Nev.) and freshman Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) are considered the most vulnerable. Their fundraising totals, which are yet to be released, could play a large role in the success of their campaigns.
Other Republicans to keep an eye on are incumbent Sens. Richard Lugar (Ind.), Orrin HatchOrrin HatchSenate GOP: National museum should include Clarence Thomas Mnuchin's former bank comes under scrutiny Trump’s economic team taking shape MORE (Utah), and Bob CorkerBob CorkerSenate: Act now to save Ukraine ExxonMobil CEO, retired admiral will meet with Trump about State: report Conway: Trump expanding secretary of State field MORE (Tenn.). All are targets of the conservative Tea Party movement. If the well-connected Lugar and Hatch did not strongly outraise their likely opponents, Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock and Rep. Jason ChaffetzJason ChaffetzClinton opponents vow to continue their pursuit GOP rep: Trump has 'extra-constitutional' view of presidency House GOP picks two women to lead committees MORE (R-Utah), they will considered even more vulnerable. Mourdock is in the race against Lugar but Chaffetz has said he'll make a decision about challenging Hatch between Labor Day and the end of the year.
In states with open Senate seats — including Texas, New Mexico, and Wisconsin — strong early fundraising totals could give candidates an edge in a primary or put them in good standing with the national party, which will be deciding how to distribute its funds in the coming months.
Other Senate races to keep an eye on: Missouri, where a trio of Republicans are vying for the chance to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillA Cabinet position for Petraeus; disciplinary actions for Broadwell after affair Defense bill tackles retaliation against military sex assault victims Red-state Dems face tough votes on Trump picks MORE; Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon TesterJon TesterRed-state Dems face tough votes on Trump picks Montana Republican warns of Senate challenge to Tester Vulnerable Dems ready to work with Trump MORE faces a likely challenge from Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg; and Nebraska, where Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson may face Republican Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning.
Fundraising reports are due to the Federal Election Commission by July 15.