Republicans have an opening, but they won't necessarily be running as Republicans.
Rep. Mark Kirk, the GOP Senate nominee in Illinois, is up with his first ad of the general election, and much of it is geared toward stressing his independence from the GOP.
Kirk, emphasizes his support for stem cell research and "cleaning up Lake Michigan."
Needless to say, this wasn't an ad we were saying when he faced a conservative primary challenge.
At the same time, Kirk does refer to himself as a Republican in the ad. Illinois is a state that has seen its fair share of Democratic corruption, but it may also just be a shoutout to his base.
New York state Assemblyman Will Barclay has decided to pass on challenging Doug Hoffman in the GOP primary in New York's 23rd district.
Barclay's exit leaves Hoffman and investment banker Matt Doheny as the frontrunners for the nomination, with the winner set to face Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.).
Barclay has been going after Hoffman early and often and said he fully expected to be a candidate for the seat. In the end, though, he said he felt he needed to serve in the state legislature at a crucial time.
The assemblyman also offered a parting shot at Hoffman, who continues to entertain the idea of a third-party bid if he loses the GOP primary this year.
"Finally, as I have already pledged in writing: I will support whichever
candidate Republican voters choose in the primary," Barclay said in a statement. "Any candidate worthy
of the Republican nomination must, in my view, do the same."
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) faces his own primary challenge this cycle, but that didn't stop him from lending a hand to another Republican in a tough primary.
McCain was in a state that has meant so much to him -- New Hampshire -- to raise money with former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte on Saturday. Ayotte faces a tough primary with attorney Ovide Lamontagne and businessman Bill Binnie, among others.
Both were playing up their conservative bona fides, as they face challenges from the right.
During the visit, McCain broached the idea of Republicans working to repeal the health care bill Democrats are trying to push through. He also reportedly labeled climate change an "inexact science" and said a Supreme Court ruling that overturned much of his campaign finance reform bill needed to be met with increased transparency.
The St. Petersburg Times digs into Marco Rubio's spending during his rise to political prominence and finds some problems:
...Rubio did what many aspiring Florida legislative leaders do — he created a political committee, Floridians for Conservative Leadership, to "support state and local candidates who espouse conservative government policies," according to IRS records.
But for 2003, the committee spent nearly $150,000 on administrative and operating costs and $2,000 in candidate contributions. Over 18 months, only $4,000 went to candidates other than Rubio, while similar political committees gave tens of thousands of dollars to candidates.
Rubio spent the biggest chunk of the committee's money, $89,000, on political consultants, $14,000 in reimbursements to himself, and more than $51,000 in credit card expenses. Records show those expenses were for food, lodging and airfare but do not detail who was traveling or where expenses were incurred.
The thrust of the piece is that Rubio used political donations and taxpayer money to fund a lavish lifestyle, using both his PAC and taxpayer money to pay for expensive dinners, for example.
It's not a bombshell, but it still helps the Crist campaign advance their narrative about Rubio's spending habits.
Former Colorado Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) is in a statistical tie with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) heading into their party's precinct caucuses next week, according to a Public Policy Polling (D) survey.
The Colorado Senate race has lacked much in the way on non-Rasmussen polling. While that firm has shown Norton with a significant lead on Bennet, the new PPP survey and a January Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos have shown the race effectively tied.
PPP has both candidates at 43 percent while Research 2000 had Bennet up 40-39.
First, though, both Norton and Bennet face key tests when party activists begin weighing in next week. Bennet is facing a primary challenge from state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who could make a strong showing in the caucuses. Norton could also face some anti-establishment fervor, with Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck beating her in a series of recent straw polls.
Precincts caucuses eventually lead to a state assembly, where Romanoff or Buck could get a boost with a win.
Romanoff leads Norton 44-39 in a prospective general election matchup.
It might be time to start calling former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) the early frontrunner in the California GOP Senate primary.
Campbell leads Carly Fiorina 33-24 in a new poll. The Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos joins multiple polls now have shown Campbell beginning the race with a significant lead.
It's early, though, and Fiorina is likely to vastly outspend Campbell. We saw her campaign recently go after Campbell with the notorious "Demon Sheep" ad, and it has also accused him of having ties to terrorists.
It's also notable that Chuck DeVore, who is languishing in the single digits, recently told the AP that he has continued to focus his attacks on Fiorina because he views Campbell as the stronger general election candidate.
Campbell also performs best in the general election, trailing Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) 47-43, while Fiorina trails her 49-40.
Fiorina and DeVore both show net-negative favorability ratings, while Campbell's approval (46 percent) is nine points higher than his disapproval (37 percent).
After a recent poll showed him trailing Rand Paul by 15 points, Trey Grayson is up with a new ad and website calling into question Paul's "strange ideas."
It's more of the same from Grayson's campaign, which has now run three ads featuring Grayson in front of a white background calling into question Paul's positions.
The website is here: http://randpaulstrangeideas.com/
Interestingly, if you add an 's' after Rand Paul in that web address, it links to Paul's campaign website.
UPDATE: Paul's campaign has another quick response.
A distinct pattern is developing here: Grayson tries to marginalize Paul, and Paul fights back by tying him to President Obama.
Jeb Bush is finally endorsing in the big GOP primary, but it's not the primary we've been waiting for.
Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) reelection campaign announced Wednesday that Bush will back him over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.).
We'll continue to wait and see whether Bush feels the need to weigh
into the GOP primary in his home state. At this point, though, he'd
really just be piling on by endorsing Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist.
Here's Bush's statement: "As we continue to face tough challenges both at home and abroad, America needs leaders like Senator John McCain in the United States Senate. John has devoted his life to service and sacrifice for our nation, and demonstrated time and again that he is beholden to no interest other than what is best for America. John is a proven conservative leader committed to reducing taxes, fighting wasteful spending and keeping America safe. We need John’s continued leadership in the United States Senate, and I am proud to support him.”
Another poll shows Charlie Crist would be better off running as an independent.
Public Policy Polling (D), which on Tuesday showed Crist trailing Marco Rubio 60-28 in the GOP Senate primary in Florida, now shows Crist running a much-closer second in a three-way general election matchup between him, Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.).
The poll has Rubio holding his lead at 34 percent, with Crist at 27 percent and Meek at 25 percent. It echoes a January poll by Republican pollsters Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates that showed Rubio at 31, Crist at 26 and Meek at 24.
In a straight Rubio-versus-Meek race, PPP has Rubio leading 44-39, which is notably his smallest margin since late last year. PPP also notes that there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans in that matchup, so the race could close even more.
Democrats think this race is becoming more and more competitive as Crist implodes, and they appear to have a point.
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