GOP primaries

Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta hasn't raised big money yet, and now he's got an expensive primary to thank for it.

Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney is set to launch his own campaign for the GOP nomination to face Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), and he could pose a well-funded threat to the frontrunning Guinta.

A source close to Mahoney confirms he is "beginning the process of buttoning up informal commitments that grassroots activists, folks from the donor community and Republican officials have made to him recently."

Mahoney's entry shouldn't be surprising. In the current issue of the magazine he publishes, BusinessNH, included in the Publisher's Note is a full-throated endorsement of the Tea Party movement. Mahoney appears to be setting himself up as the Tea Party candidate in the race.

Mahoney faces a crowded field that includes Guinta and two other businessmen -- Rich Ashooh and Bob Bestani -- but he could separate himself from the pack with the ability to self-fund. No GOP challenger had banked even $175,000 by year's end.

Mahoney's likely entry was first reported by the New Hampshire Union Leader.

The latest offering from Linda McMahon features her husband, Vince, and daughter Stephanie, along with ample mention of the WWE.

Much like Charlie Crist and the stimulus, McMahon knows she can't hide from or ignore the WWE. So she will try to turn it into an advantage.

(The pictures of a young Vince McMahon are the bonus here.)

The Club for Growth is back on the air in its effort to take down Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah).

The latest ad hits Bennett for voting for the bailout and the Bridge to Nowhere. It also notes he "sided with big-government liberals" in his health care proposals.

The Club is not backing a particular candidate in the Republican field to face Bennett, but it is opposing Bennett's re-nomination. Attorney Mike Lee, former congressional candidate Tim Bridgewater and activist Cherilyn Eagar are currently challenging Bennett.

The ad closes by encouraging voters to caucus on March 23.

UPDATE: Club spokesman Mike Connolly wouldn't disclose the size of the ad buy but said: "We are buying everything in the state that Fox News will sell us."

Minnesota is officially moving its primary ahead one month, from Sept. 14 to Aug. 10.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was set to sign the change into law on Wednsday morning. The change was made in order to give overseas absentee voters enough time to get their ballots in.

The key race in the state this year is the open governor's contest, with vast fields of candidates seeking their party's nomination on either side.

As for congressional races, the move could help Democrats recover earlier from a tough primary to face Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.). In that race, state Sen. Tarryl Clark and former University of Minnesota Regent Maureen Reed are both raising big money.

A pair of GOP-targeted districts in Texas look like they will require runoffs next month to determine the Republican nominee.

In Rep. Chet Edwards’s (D-Texas) district, businessman Bill Flores led 2008 nominee Rob Curnock 35-28 with 83 percent of precincts reporting. And in Rep. Ciro Rodriguez’s (D-Texas) district, attorney Quico Canseco led former CIA agent Will Hurd 34-31 with 52 percent of precincts in.

A candidate needs 50 percent-plus-one to win outright.

In the April 13 runoff, Flores appears set to face Curnock, while Canseco is likely to do battle with Hurd. While results aren't complete yet, the third-place candidates in each race were at least eight points back and didn’t appear as though they would challenge for a berth in the runoff.

Edwards has been a frequent GOP target in a district that went 67 percent for John McCain last year, but Republicans have been unable to find the right prescription for beating him.

The national GOP has highlighted Flores’s candidacy as it’s next big hope for taking down the stubborn incumbent, but Flores got a very late start on his campaign, and Curnock benefited from taking 46 percent of the vote as the GOP nominee in 2008.

Flores raised $350,000 and self-funded $250,000 for the primary, compared to about $150,000 raised for Curnock.

Rodriguez defeated Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Calif.) in a runoff in December 2006 and has been a lower-tier GOP target ever since. His district went 51-48 for President Barack Obama in 2008 and remains accessible to the right kind of candidate.

Republicans hope Canseco might be able to steal some of the Hispanic vote that has swung towards Democrats in recent years. The district is 55 percent Hispanic.

Canseco, who self-funded heavily in his 2008 campaign as the primary runner-up, spent only about $57,000 of his own money in this primary and raised just under $200,000, compared to about $150,000 raised for Hurd.

In other races, both Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) and Ralph Hall (R-Texas) easily turned away nominal primary challenges.

For those following the results out of Texas tonight, the Ballot Box will be holding a live blog beginning around 8 p.m. eastern, when most of the polls close (El Paso is on mountain time and will close at 9).

Please check back here at that time. We had a great turnout for the Illinois primary last month, and hopefully we'll have another great discussion.

The Perry-Hutchison primary will of course be item No. 1, but we'll also monitor the GOP primaries to face Reps. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas).

It looks like Rep. Nathan Deal (R-Ga.) had good reason to leave his day job.

A day after Deal announced he would be resigning from Congress to focus on running for governor, an InsiderAdvantage poll shows him in third place in the primary.

State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is at 27 percent, former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel is at 13 percent, and Deal is at 9 percent. Deal is expected to compete for the nomination, but so far he's not showing much movement.

Maybe shedding his title will help.

The two Republicans seeking to succeed Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) are both applauding his controversial stand against an extension of jobless benefits and health insurance payments to the unemployed.

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson and ophthamologist Rand Paul are both sticking by the state's junior senator, even as he receives bomb threats and Democrats decry him.

McClatchy reports that Grayson "said he would 'proudly stand up to ensure that programs are paid for.'" Paul, meanwhile, said "more senators need to stand up for the taxpayers and against the big-spending career politicians in both parties."

While it's nice to stand for fiscal responsibility in a GOP primary, there's a reason you don't see tons of Republican senators jumping to Bunning's aid right now. This is a tough position to take for the general election.

Rep. John Boozman (R-Ark.) says Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's newly launched primary with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) could actually help the incumbent.

Amidst the chaos of filing for the Arkansas Senate race on Monday, Boozman said in a brief interview with The Ballot Box that he was pressing forward as before.

"I don’t know that it really affects my race," he said. "But it certainly has thrown a kink into things. A tough primary forces people to get organized and helps them in that regard."

Boozman said his own newly launched campaign has been going better than he could have anticipated. He's also locked in a primary, with state Sen. Gilbert Baker and a wide field of GOP candidates.

He promised an exciting election year.

"People like you will be writing books about this one," he said.

Republican efforts to take down Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) could be hitting a snag.

Suffolk County Legislator Jay Schneiderman is reportedly looking to seek the Independence Party line -- and not a major-party line -- for the race.

Because of New York's balloting rules, a candidacy like Schneiderman's could steal serious votes from Republicans. Those seeking evidence should look no further than Doug Hoffman's effort in November's upstate special election while running on the Conservative line.

Schneiderman is a former Republican who defected to the Independence Party last year and won reelection without opposition.

"My intention is not to seek a major party backing,” he told Newsday. "l'm floating the idea to see the kind of response I get from voters. This is a race an Independent can win. You could see the first member of the Independence Party in Congress."

Businessman Randy Altschuler, attorney George Demos and Chris Cox, the grandson of former President Richard Nixon, are all seeking the GOP nomination to face Bishop.