Governor races

Former Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is mulling a run for governor next year, according to two Democratic operatives familiar with his thinking.

The move could put him on a collision course with Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), who appears poised to run for governor after announcing last week he wouldn't seek the presidency in 2012.

Ellsworth, a two-term congressman, left his seat to run for Senate last cycle but lost to Republican Dan Coats. He's since remained quiet about his future plans, but Indiana and Washington Democratic operatives now say he could jump into the race.

"Brad has not ruled this out," a top Indiana Democratic operative told The Ballot Box. "He's fielding calls from folks. He's such a good guy and that's why folks want him to stay involved in public service."

A Washington Democratic operative also said Ellsworth was thinking about mounting a run for governor.

Ellsworth did not respond to an interview request relayed through his former campaign spokeswoman.

The former Vanderburgh County sheriff made his law enforcement experience the centerpiece of his Senate campaign. Indiana voters weren't excited by Ellsworth's law-and-order pitch for their Senate votes, but a similar campaign for statewide office could gain traction.

The challenge for Democrats is to avoid a bruising primary fight. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is also considered a potential gubernatorial candidate — he recently told Indiana reporters that he'll make a decision based on how the district looks after Census redistricting.

Another name in the Democratic mix is Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who announced earlier this month that he won’t seek a third term.

Weinzapfel has some $750,000 in his campaign account, operatives said, which could be rolled over into a gubernatorial bid. Ellsworth and Donnelly, meanwhile, have almost no federal campaign funds left, according to their latest Federal Election Commission filings. In fact, Ellsworth remains about $11,000 in debt from his Senate run, according to his year-end FEC report. 

Seed money wouldn't necessarily be an issue if former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) again opens his campaign coffers to his fellow Democrats. He's sitting on about $10 million in his Senate account, but isn’t expected to seek public office in 2012. During the 2010 cycle, he transferred $1.5 million to the state party to help bolster Ellsworth and other Democrats.

Bayh's money aside, Democrats don't expect a thorny nomination process. An operative noted that Weinzapfel and Ellsworth, who is from Evansville, are friends, and that the congressman is also close to Donnelly, whom he served with in the House. 

They won't all seek the nomination, the operative said. "They can work it all out."

Pence, meanwhile, is expected to clinch the GOP nomination unopposed, should he run. But Democrats insist the general election won't be a foregone conclusion. Pence hasn't had to compete in a close race since he was elected in 2000 and isn't as well known in Indiana as other Republicans such as Gov. Mitch Daniels and Sen. Dick Lugar.

West Virginia is set to hold a special election for governor and Democrats intend to make Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's (R-W.Va.) vote for the healthcare repeal bill an issue if she runs.

"If the Republican leadership succeeds with a full repeal, thousands of West Virginians will lose their health care coverage," Larry Puccio, chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party, said in a statement. "Make no mistake, if they vote for this repeal, they support taking away health care from people who have gained it since this bill passed."

In a statement Wednesday, Capito called the Democrats' reform bill "emblematic of the closed door, legislative trickery." 

"Despite promises to the contrary, millions of Americans may have to change their coverage and the CBO predicts that premiums will increase for those purchasing private insurance," she said.  

Capito said she supports some provisions of the bill, such as the ones allowing children under 26 to stay on their parents' coverage and preventing insurers from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions. 

"These simple solutions are attainable without a complete government-takeover of the healthcare system that Americans neither want nor can afford," Capito added.

The House is set to vote Wednesday on a measure that would repeal the Democrats' healthcare reform legislation. Capito's office said she will vote for the repeal bill. She voted twice against the passage of the Democrats' legislation in the last Congress.

Meanwhile, the West Virginia Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled the state must hold a special election for governor this year. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) left the governor's mansion to run for Senate last year. Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin (D) was subsequently elevated to the top job. He had intended to serve until the next election, but the court ruled that two years without an election was too long.

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A new poll predicts tough reelection prospects for a member of the Senate Democratic leadership team.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, chairwoman of the Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee, has the approval of just 37 percent of respondents of a Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of 600 registered voters. Thirty-nine percent of respondents disapprove, according to the poll.

What's worse for Stabenow, her reelection prospects are also fairly bleak. The poll found that only 23 percent of respondents would vote for the Michigan senator against a generic candidate. But Stabenow's support among Democrats — roughly 60 percent — is more promising. About 16 percent of Republicans support her.

The poll reflects the political trend of Michigan voters. In 2010 the state replaced its Democratic governor with a Republican, and the GOP took control of both the state senate and state House of Representatives.

The Republican Governors Association is preparing an organized effort to help governors around the country fight the reform law's implementation.

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Retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) said Monday he has no plans to re-enter politics in any capacity in the short term.

The second-term senator and son of former Sen. Birch Bayh (D-Ind.) said he plans to work in the private sector "for a few years."

"I don't have political plans right now. I'm looking forward to being in the private sector for a few years," he said at a South Bend farewell tour event, according to WNDU-TV. "I'm looking forward to making sure my kids graduate from high school well, and is [sic] suspect I’ll look to re-enter public service in some capacity, but there are a lot of ways to do that other than running for political office."

Bayh earlier this month ruled out a run for his former post as governor, a move many expected him to make following his decision to retire in February. The centrist has also swatted away talk that he could launch a primary challenge to President Obama in 2012. 

But Bayh's remarks give more clarity to the plans of the 55-year-old official, whom many believe could still make a political comeback. The senator would not rule out a future run for public office in a separate interview with the Indianapolis Star on Monday.

"Somewhere between infinity and zero. How's that for keeping my options open?" Bayh said after being asked about the changes of him running for office sometime in the next decade.

"Look, obviously the fact that I chose not to run for re-election makes that less likely. But look at our senator-elect: After 12 years in the private sector, he decided to come back and run. ... That's a long way of saying, I don't know. It is known to happen," he added. "But I don't know what kind of possibility to attach to that."

He also said a run for president down the road is highly unlikely.

"It was possible at one point that the stars might align in the right way. But they didn't," he said. "And I think it's better to be realistic. There are people who just feel they can't go to their graves contented unless they've run for president. I'm not one of those people."

Bayh said he is not "planning" on becoming a lobbyist after he is legally permitted to do so and also said he has not decided what to do with the $11 million left in his campaign war chest.

Another rumored top-tier contender for Indiana governor in 2012 officially ruled out a run Monday.

Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman (R) said she will not make a bid for the state's top job after a recent physical revealed "minor health issues." 

Skillman's announcement comes amid speculation Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will make a run for the state's top job. 

Pence, a rumored GOP presidential hopeful, is seen by many as more likely to run for governor in 2012 should the path to the nomination be cleared.

Skillman's announcement also comes after two high-profile Democrats passed on the race. Retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) has said he will not run in 2012, as has Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.). 

Now that Bayh and Skillman are out of the race, a Pence candidacy could quickly dissuade others from even mounting a bid and take Pence out of the 2012 presidential running.   

Other potential candidates for governor on the Democratic side include Reps. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) and Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.), who just lost a Senate bid after vacating his House seat. Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel and former state House Speaker John Gregg have also been mentioned.

— This post was updated at 1:42 p.m.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour says he doesn't remember the Civil Rights era being "that bad," citing his attendance at a Martin Luther King Jr. rally nearly 50 years ago.

"I just don’t remember it as being that bad," Barbour (R), 63, told the conservative Weekly Standard, which did a lengthy profile on the governor. "I remember Martin Luther King came to town, in ’62. He spoke out at the old fairground and it was full of people, black and white."

Barbour, who has been mentioned as a potential 2012 presidential candidate, was widely praised for his term as chairman of the Republican Governors Association this past election cycle. The GOP picked up six governors seats and, with them, the control of the majority of the country's governors mansions. The former Republican National Committee chairman was also praised for his fundraising prowess.

Democratic National Committee spokesman Haru Sevugan said that comment disqualifies Barbour from running for president.

"Re Barbour's 'not that bad' comment: He’s not ready for prime time or not ready for the 21st century - either way it’s disqualifying," Sevugan posted on his Twitter account.

Barbour's hometown of Yazoo City, Miss., is described in the profile of Barbour as a place that escaped some of the violence seen in other places during the Civil Rights Movement.

“It was quite apparent that Yazoo City had indeed integrated its schools calmly and deliberately," reads a passage cited from a book about the city.

Barbour told the Weekly Standard that he attended a Yazoo City rally headlined by King in 1962 with some of his friends, when he was in high school. 

Barbour said they wanted to hear King speak, but he could not recall what the reverend said.

“I don’t really remember. The truth is, we couldn’t hear very well. We were sort of out there on the periphery," he said. "We just sat on our cars, watching the girls, talking, doing what boys do.

"We paid more attention to the girls than to King," he added.

— This post was updated at 11:53 a.m. and at 3:50 p.m.

Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R) said he's being pushed to run for governor in 2012, but also won't discount a White House bid.

"We've gotten encouragement to run for governor in 2012," Pence told U.S. News and World Report. "We've also gotten more than a little bit of encouragement to consider running for president."

Pence stepped down as GOP conference chairman after the midterm elections, which fueled speculation his ambition had expanded beyond the House.

Outgoing Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) has ruled himself out of another gubernatorial run, which could open the door for Pence to seize the state's top job. Current Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is term limited and can't seek reelection in 2012.

Daniels, who is also considered a contender for the GOP 2012 presidential nod, has pushed for Republicans to declare a truce on social issues. Pence said he doesn't support the idea.

"To those who say we should simply focus on fiscal issues, I say you would not be able to print enough money in 1,000 years to pay for the government you would need if the traditional family collapses," said Pence.

The retiring two-term senator said concerns about his family stopped him from seeking the Hoosier State's top job.

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The Minnesota governor’s race will conclude Wednesday morning with the concession of Republican Tom Emmer, according to reports.

On Tuesday, Emmer's campaign withdrew almost all its remaining ballot challenges, paving the way for Democrat Mark Dayton to declare victory. Dayton, a former senator, currently leads Emmer by about 9,000 votes out of 2.1 million cast. A recount had been under way since the Nov. 2 election but didn't erode the Democrat's lead.

Emmer is expected to concede at 11:30 Eastern time, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune.