N.J. population shifting from heavily Democratic North

New detailed Census data released Thursday for New Jersey shows population growth concentrated in the central and southern parts of the state, which could make it harder for Democrats to ensure the loss of a single congressional seat comes at the expense of a Republican.

The state must shed a congressional district this year, and two potential Republican targets will use the new data to bolster the argument to leave their districts alone.

Seniority tends to rule the roost in the state's congressional redistricting process, so speculation has centered on GOP Reps. Leonard Lance and Jon Runyan, who was just elected in November. 

But Runyan's district contains Ocean County, which saw the largest population growth of any county in the state, further bolstering the case that he won't be a redistricting target.  

Lance's district also contains two counties that have ranked in the top five in population growth over the past decade. 

As expected, population in the state's urban northeast either declined or came up well short of the pace set by the central and southern parts of the state. Population in Essex County declined, while the state's largest county — Bergen — saw an anemic rate of population growth. 

That could shine a larger spotlight on districts occupied by Democratic congressmen, like Steve Rothman or Bill Pascrell. 

Lance has already been making the argument that the state's redistricting commission should be looking to the northeastern part of the state, telling The Ballot Box recently, "The areas of New Jersey that have not grown in population are not in my part of the state."

Despite the population shift away from more reliably Democratic areas of the state, the data also show the state's Hispanic population has exploded over the past decade, increasing by 39 percent and making Hispanics New Jersey's largest minority group.