California GOP 'cautiously' eyeing Rep. Harman's seat

California Republicans are cautiously optimistic they can pick up Rep. Jane Harman's (D-Calif.) Los Angeles-area House seat, but are waiting to see how the redistricting process plays out.

Harman is expected to announce Tuesday that she's leaving Congress to succeed former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-Ind.) as head of the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, a Washington-based research institution. 

California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) will have 14 calendar days from the date of the vacancy to schedule a special election, which must be held 112-126 days later, according to the California Secretary of State's office. A primary would be held eight Tuesdays before the special election vote.

That could be the first use of the state's new top-two primary system in a congressional race. Under the new law, which was approved by California voters last June, the primary would be non-partisan with the top-two vote getters advancing to a general election. But if a candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in the primary, he or she wins the seat. The law is being challenged in court.

The seat would remain vacant in the mean time.

Meanwhile, California's redistricting commission has started meeting and is expected to release its plan in the fall. That won't, however, influence the state's special election.

But, by 2012, Republicans are hopeful Harman's coastal district will become friendlier, but they're waiting to see the results of redistricting, a party official told The Ballot Box. Potential candidates being mentioned on the Democratic side include Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who ran against Republican Steve Kuykendall for the seat in 1998, state Assemblywomen Betsy Butler and Bonnie Lowenthal, and state Senator Ted Lieu. 

Republicans operatives believe Mattie Fein, who challenged Harman in 2010, will run again. She took 35 percent of the vote in her last bid.

Harman was elected to the seat in 1992, but left in 1998 to run for governor. After her departure, the seat was held briefly by Kuykendall, whom Harman defeated in 2000 after her bid for the state's top job failed.

At the presidential level, California's 36th district is solidly Democratic. President Obama won there with 64 percent of the vote in 2008. And in 2004, Sen. John Kerry (D-Calif.) best President George W. Bush in the district 59 to 40 percent.

Harman hasn't always been on the best terms with her party's base. In 2010, liberal Democrat Marcy Winograd challenged her from the left, but the congresswoman easily survived, winning 59 percent of the vote.

--Shane D'Aprile and Elise Viebeck contributed

-- This post was last updated at 1:55 p.m.