Polls show NY Dem poised for upset

New polling shows Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul is poised for an upset victory in New York's 26th district special election.

A Public Policy Polling survey released late Sunday showed Hochul with a six-point lead over the Republican, Jane Corwin. Hochul had 42 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Corwin while 13 percent went to Independent Jack Davis, who is running on the Tea Party line.

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Since the Democratic-leaning firm's earlier poll, Hochul has gained seven points, much of that appearing to come from Davis. The poll of 1,106 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Observers on both sides of the aisle are keeping a close eye on this race, which is being seen as a bellwether test on Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) 2012 budget proposal. Democrats have railed against a provision in the budget that would turn Medicare into a voucher-like system.

The Republican-leaning seat was last held by Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), who resigned in February.

Hochul also led in a Siena College poll released over the weekend. In that survey, 42 percent of those polled said they would vote for the Democrat, while 38 percent said they would vote for Corwin — although that lead was only slightly outside the survey's margin of error. Davis earned 12 percent in the Siena poll.

The three top candidates have packed schedules in the final hours before Tuesday's vote. Hochul's itinerary includes a stop with Lt. Gov. Robert Duffy (D) on Monday. 

—This post was updated at 10:06 a.m.