Polling from NY Dems downplays Rep. Bishop's rematch with Altschuler

By Josh Lederman - 11/21/11 01:44 PM ET

Facing a rematch against the Republican who came within a few hundred votes of ousting him in 2010, Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) released internal polling suggesting Bishop's 2012 reelection will be much easier.

Businessman Randy Altschuler came within a fraction of a percentage point of Bishop in 2010, leading to a weeks-long recount after a campaign in which Altschuler invested more than $4 million of his own money, quickly outpacing Bishop's spending.

Bishop's razor-thin margin in 2010 has led political handicappers to hold up his district as a major bellwether and tossup for 2012. But polling conducted in October by Democratic firm Global Strategy Group for the Suffolk County Democratic Committee shows Bishop's favorability in the district 27 points higher than Altschuler's.

"It is clear that the Republican 'wave' that made 2010 competitive for Randy Altschuler has now ended," wrote Rich Schaffer, the party chairman for Suffolk County, which comprises the eastern wing of Long Island.

Altschuler spokesman Chris Russell called the poll "amateur hour" and said no voters would be fooled by a desperate attempt.

"This is a pretty pathetic attempt by Congressman Bishop to slow down Randy's strong fundraising and momentum," Russell said. "Anyone who's been around politics for more than five seconds realizes when a longterm incumbent feels the need to release an internal memo 12 months from election day, the only thing it proves is the incumbent is scared to death."

The district's new boundaries have yet to be determined, as New York is engaged in a messy redistricting process mired in legal complaints. But Democrats also polled outside the district but within the county, suggesting even if the boundaries change, Bishop will start off better-known and liked among voters in other parts of the county.

Bishop had just under $1 million on hand for his reelection at the end of September, while Altschuler had about $400,000 — but also $500,000 in debt, which his campaign says represents funds Altschuler lent his campaign during the last cycle.

George Demos, a former Securities and Exchange Commission prosecutor who ran against Altschuler in the 2010 primary, is competing again in the GOP primary, and had about $75,000 on hand.

"Randy Altschuler couldn't win in a year Republicans couldn't lose. He's simply unelectable," said Kevin Tschirhart, Demos's campaign manager.

The poll of 501 likely voters in Suffolk County was conducted using live telephone interviews between Oct. 16-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

- This post was updated at 1:53 p.m and 3:54 p.m.