GOP poll shows Oregon House race in statistical dead heat

With two weeks to go until voters in Oregon choose who will replace former Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.), the Republican candidate's campaign released an internal poll Monday showing the race is within the margin of error.

Republican businessman Rob Cornilles trails former state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici (D) by just four points, according to the poll by Cornilles's campaign. Ten percent of voters are still undecided.

Anything less than a wide-margin victory for Bonamici in this heavily-Democratic district could be troublesome for Democrats, and could allow Republicans to claim that they are chipping away at support for Democratic members of Congress even in districts where they had not previously been competitive.

As with all internal campaign polls, this one should be taken with a grain of salt — especially because it differs so significantly from two other recent polls that showed Bonamici with a double-digit lead over Cornilles.

The Republican's campaign pointed out that it was the first poll to sample voters since Cornilles started airing negative ads against his Democratic opponents. But Bonamici and national Democratic groups have also been on the air with more than $1 million in ads, far outspending Cornilles and attacking his business record and his opposition to abortion rights. 

National Republicans have so far left Cornilles to his own devices, reluctant to invest in a race where they face such an uphill battle.

As the latest sign that Democrats are fretting their fate in a friendly district where they should have no trouble winning, Republicans pointed to House Majority PAC's decision to join the air wars in support of Bonamaci. Cornilles campaign manager Mary Anne Ostrom said the campaign's media buyer had informed them that the liberal PAC was spending more than $200,000 to buy airtime in the Portland area.

A spokesman for House Majority PAC confirmed that it would start airing ads against Cornilles on Thursday, but declined to provide the size of the buy. The PAC said the ads would target "Cornilles's dishonest jobs record" and would cite a recent article questioning Cornilles's job-creation claims and a tax lien that was briefly placed on his business.

Voting is already under way in the all-mail-in special election to replace Wu, who resigned in July amid a sex scandal, and will continue until Jan. 31.

The survey by Republican pollster Bob Moore was conducted Jan. 11-12 using live telephone interviews and had a margin of error of 6 percentage points. The poll's sample of 300 likely voters included 40 percent registered Democrats, 35 percent Republicans and 25 percent unaffiliated or Independent voters.

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