Where House Democrats could lose

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As Republicans eye their largest House majority in a generation, their path to history runs through roughly 15 Democratic-held districts. 

Buoyed by President Obama’s deep unpopularity, frustration with the economy and 

ObamaCare, and with help from a GOP-friendly, gerrymandered map, the number of Republican wins could top double digits on election night. 

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The party needs to gain 11 seats in order to hit its “Drive to 245” goal for expanding its House majority. A handful of losses are possible, thanks mostly to weak GOP incumbents, and Republicans have been careful in the final days to downplay expectations

Still, Democrats are preparing for mounting losses on Tuesday night. Here’s the most likely places where those could occur. 

Utah’s 4th District (Open):

Former Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love is expected to become the first African-American Republican woman to serve in Congress. She lost to retiring Rep. Jim MathesonJim MathesonLobbying world House Dem donated K to freshman GOP lawmaker An election of choices MORE (D-Utah) by just 768 votes in 2012 despite the GOP lean of the district but is now anticipated to easily pick up the open seat. Love was tapped by then-presidential nominee Mitt Romney to speak at the 2012 Republican National Convention and is viewed by many in her party as a rising star. 

North Carolina’s 7th District (Open):

As with Matheson’s district, this seat seemed like a sure GOP takeover as soon as centrist Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) announced his retirement. Former state Sen. David Rouzer (R), who lost to McIntyre by just fewer than 700 votes in 2012, is now set to be the next congressman. 

New York’s 21st District (Open):

The retirement of Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) gives the GOP its third likely pickup opportunity. Republican Elise Stefanik, 30, is poised to become the youngest member of Congress in either chamber and the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. National Democrats have pulled money from this district and essentially ceded the district to Republicans.

West Virginia’s 3rd District:

Rep. Nick RahallNick RahallWest Virginia is no longer Clinton country Solution needed: Rail congestion is stifling economic growth Lobbying World MORE. Romney won this district with 65 percent of the vote in the 2012 race for the White House, which doesn’t make the 19-term incumbent’s reelection prospects any easier in a state where dissatisfaction with the president is high —especially due to his energy policies in this coal-rich district. If state Sen. Evan Jenkins (R) wins, though, it will likely be by a slim margin. 

Illinois’s 12th District:

Rep. William Enyart. Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has been a drag on this Democratic freshman down-ballot. His party tried early on to paint state Rep. Mike Bost(R) as “meltdown Mike” for his explosive speeches in Springfield that became YouTube sensations, but now even many Democrats expect the Republican will win. 

California’s 7th District:

Rep. Ami BeraAmi BeraOvernight Healthcare: Flint fight drags on | House passes exemption for ObamaCare mandate | Feds looking for healthy millennials House passes bill exempting some from ObamaCare mandate House votes to block Gitmo transfers MORE. This freshman Democrat’s reelection campaign has become the most expensive House race in the country this cycle: both sides have spent nearly $20 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politic, and outside groups have poured in about $13 million. Bera won the district by barely 2 percentage points in 2012 after a recount that lasted more than a week. The margin could be even slimmer this time because turnout is expected to be low statewide. Former Rep. Doug Ose (R) is banking on similar GOP turnout in 2010 in this perennial swing district. 

California’s 52nd District:

Rep. Scott Peters. This race has proven to be one of the nastiest of the cycle. The GOP candidate, former San Diego city councilman Carl DeMaio, is under fire for sexual harassment allegations from two former campaign staffers. DeMaio has blamed Peters’s campaign for the accusations, claiming they stemmed from discrimination over his sexual orientation. Still, the GOP nominee and the freshman Democrat are neck-and-neck in recent polling. If he wins, DeMaio could be the first openly gay Republican elected to Congress.

Florida’s 26th District:

Rep. Joe GarciaJoe GarciaThe Trail 2016: TrumpCare Democrat apologizes for remarks about Clinton and sex Trump campaign's taco truck gaffe underscores Latinos' political power MORE. National Republicans have run ads highlighting Garcia’s ethics issues, including that his former campaign manager pleaded guilty to absentee ballot fraud. But his GOP opponent, Miami-Dade County School Board member Carlos Curbelo, hasn’t generated ideal headlines for himself after he called Social Security a “Ponzi scheme.” 

New Hampshire’s 1st District:

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter faces a rematch against former Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.). After losing in 2010 to Guinta, she defeated him again 2012. But the nationwide drag from Obama could result in another reversal. 

Minnesota’s 8th District:

Rep. Rick Nolan. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began to pour money into this district late into the campaign to help save Nolan, from GOP businessman Stewart Mills. Nolan served three terms, from 1975 to 1981, and returned in 2013 after a three-decade hiatus. But Mills, anointed “the Brad Pitt of the Republican Party,” has kept the race competitive. Green Party candidate Ray “Skip” Sandman could also cut into Nolan’s base of support and help Mills prevail.

Illinois’s 10th District:

Rep. Brad Schneider. Like Enyart, Schneider’s reelection prospects could be bogged down by the state’s governor. Schneider won this district only by about a percentage point in 2012 and faces a rematch against former Rep. Bob Dold (R-Ill.) and the two are deadlocked in polls.

Arizona’s 1st District:

Rep. Ann KirkpatrickAnn KirkpatrickMoulitsas: The year of the woman Senate rivals gear up for debates McCain opponent releases new ad hitting his record MORE. Kirkpatrick, who lost her seat in 2010 but won it back two years later, isn’t shying away from her vote for the healthcare law. Her opponent, state House Speaker Andy Tobin (R), and national Republicans have made ObamaCare a central issue of the campaign. Tobin hasn’t proven to be the best challenger, but he could still win. 

Arizona’s 2nd District:

Rep. Ron BarberRon BarberTen House seats Dems hope Trump will tilt House conducts moment of silence for Tucson shooting anniversary Dem files Ethics complaint on Benghazi panel MORE. Barber and his GOP opponent, retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally, are locked in a rematch of their close 2012 race. Former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), for whom Barber previously worked as district director, has poured in more than $2 million into the race through her super-PAC advocating gun control, Americans for Responsible Solutions.

New York’s 1st District:

Rep. Tim BishopTim BishopDems separated by 29 votes in NY House primary Flint residents hire first K Street firm House moves to vote on .1T package; backup plan in place MORE. The National Republican Congressional Committee has been running ads against Bishop for an alleged breach of congressional ethics. A report two years ago stated that Bishop helped obtain environmental permits for a constituent who wanted to use fireworks at a party — but only after Bishop’s staff allegedly asked the constituent for a campaign contribution. Bishop’s district is a usual GOP target, but Republicans hope that the ethics investigation will finally bring down the 11-year incumbent.

Georgia’s 12th District:

Rep. John BarrowJohn BarrowDem files Ethics complaint on Benghazi panel Barrow thanks staff in farewell speech The best and the worst of the midterms MORE. Despite perennial GOP attempts, Barrow — the only remaining white Democrat in the Deep South — has managed to win reelection each year thanks to his strong retail politicking skills and relatively centrist voting record. But Democrats, who still think Barrow can win, acknowledge the incumbent faces a particularly tough road to reelection this year because his district has been redrawn and he faces a strong opponent in GOP businessman Rick Allen.