Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) and his Democratic challenger, doctor Manan Trivedi, released dueling internal polls on Monday showing very different results.
Trivedi's poll, conducted in late May, had him trailing Gerlach by 12 percentage points, numbers that are similar to the margin he lost by when the two squared off in 2010. Gerlach's, which was conducted back in March, showed him with a 30-point lead.
The district got 5 percentage points more Republican in redistricting, giving Gerlach an edge in the race. He's also shown an ability to win in tough districts. The Hill rates this race "likely Republican."