Meehan holds a 50 to 30 percent edge over Democrat George Badey in the poll, a lead mostly built on stronger name identification. While partisan polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, the 50 percent mark is right at the threshold where the freshman should start feeling nervous.
The poll also shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney in the district by 48 to 41 percent. Under the district's new lines, which were drawn to help protect Meehan, Obama would have won 51 percent in 2008. That was his political high-water mark, so the numbers seem to skew a bit Democratic.
The Hill rates this race "Likely Republican."