Dem poll: GOP Rep. Benishek in tough spot in Michigan

Freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Mich.) leads former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) by 2 percentage points and only 40 percent of voters say they would support him, according to a new poll conducted for House Majority PAC, a Democratic super-PAC.

While partisan polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, the poll is not a good sign for Benishek in the blue-collar, northern Michigan swing district, which would have gone narrowly for President Obama in the 2008 election. Any time an incumbent is significantly below 50 percent support, they are vulnerable to a challenge.

Benishek also has 79 percent name recognition from voters, while McDowell is at 48 percent despite having run against Benishek in 2010, a sign that the pro-gun, anti-abortion-rights Democrat may have more room to grow. The Hill rates the race a "toss-up."

The poll of 402 likely voters was conducted by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang from June 19-20, and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

---