The poll also found President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points in the district, showing the voters lean Democratic there.
"After voting to essentially end Medicare, which would force seniors to pay $6,400 more a year for care, Chris Gibson is clearly in for the fight of his political life in this competitive district," said Andy Stone, spokesman for House Majority PAC.
The poll of the newly drawn 19th congressional district carries a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
Democrats believe New York provides some of the best opportunities for gains in the House, believing that in addition to Gibson, Republican Reps. Michael Grimm, Nan Hayworth and Ann Marie Buerkle are vulnerable in the fall.
But Republicans have also been aggressive in protecting the seats, with House Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerLobbyists bounce back under Trump Business groups silent on Trump's Ex-Im nominee Chaffetz won't run for reelection MORE (R-Ohio) fundraising for candidates there earlier this month, and conservative outside groups similarly pledging to spend in the race.