Republican poll has Roraback leading Esty in Connecticut

A new Republican poll gives Andrew Roraback a strong lead over Democrat Elizabeth Esty in Connecticut, a shift from the most recent Democratic poll that showed Esty in the lead.

The new poll, conducted by Republican firm National Research, gives Roraback a 7-percentage-point lead, 42 percent to 35, over Esty.

That's similar to the 9-percentage-point margin by which Esty led in the most recent poll, commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), indicating the race is still largely up in the air at this point.

While the 5th district, which is now open due to Rep. Chris Murphy's (D) run for Senate, leans Democratic — as does the rest of the state — it's the likeliest opportunity for a Republican pickup there. Roraback is a more centrist candidate, and he's reached the third level of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program, which grooms up-and-coming Republican House candidates.

But Esty, too, is backed by the Democratic establishment, having been named as one of the DCCC's Red to Blue candidates — an indication it believes she's a strong contender — and EMILY's List, which backs female Democrats.

The poll was conducted among 400 likely voters in the district from Sept. 3-4, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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