While the 5th district, which is now open due to Rep. Chris MurphyChristopher (Chris) Scott MurphyChris Murphy’s profile rises with gun tragedies Murphy faces criticism from GOP challenger over fundraising email Democrat: Republicans who believe in more gun control afraid of being 'politically punished' MORE's (D) run for Senate, leans Democratic — as does the rest of the state — it's the likeliest opportunity for a Republican pickup there. Roraback is a more centrist candidate, and he's reached the third level of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program, which grooms up-and-coming Republican House candidates.

But Esty, too, is backed by the Democratic establishment, having been named as one of the DCCC's Red to Blue candidates — an indication it believes she's a strong contender — and EMILY's List, which backs female Democrats.

The poll was conducted among 400 likely voters in the district from Sept. 3-4, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.