While the 5th district, which is now open due to Rep. Chris MurphyChris MurphyOvernight Finance: Senate Dems dig in as shutdown looms | Trump taps fast-food exec for Labor chief | Portland's new CEO tax The Hill's 12:30 Report Senate Dem defends McMahon's qualifications MORE's (D) run for Senate, leans Democratic — as does the rest of the state — it's the likeliest opportunity for a Republican pickup there. Roraback is a more centrist candidate, and he's reached the third level of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program, which grooms up-and-coming Republican House candidates.

But Esty, too, is backed by the Democratic establishment, having been named as one of the DCCC's Red to Blue candidates — an indication it believes she's a strong contender — and EMILY's List, which backs female Democrats.

The poll was conducted among 400 likely voters in the district from Sept. 3-4, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.