The Hill’s 50 races to watch

Montana Senate

Jon Tester (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R)

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) won his seat by less than a 1 percent margin in 2006, and his campaign is heading toward another photo finish this year.  He and Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) have sought to paint each other as corrupt Beltway politicians in the Republican-leaning but populist anti-Washington state.

Rehberg has slammed Tester for being a leading recipient of lobbyist donations and tied him to President Obama. But Tester has been able to keep some distance from Obama by running positive ads highlighting his roots in the state, and has sought to turn the tables on Rehberg’s “Washington insider” attacks with ads featuring a recording of Rehberg telling lobbyists their industry is an “honorable profession.” But Rehberg’s vote against GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan’s budget plan has helped insulate him against attacks on entitlements. Outside groups have also been running ads for months, driving both candidates’ unfavorable ratings up.

Nearly every poll of the race has had the two in a head heat, though Rehberg has led more often than Tester. The senator is the most endangered Democratic incumbent this cycle — but it’s likely this race will come down to the wire. 

The Hill rates this race as a toss-up.

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