Love leads Matheson by 52 to 40 percent in the poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon. Matheson is running in a newly redrawn district that leans heavily Republican, though not as Republican as his old district, in a year where Mitt Romney is expected to drive GOP turnout to new heights.

It's unclear whether the survey's results are accurate, as House races are notoriously hard to poll and both Matheson's and Love's campaigns have been predicting a close finish in recent days. Matheson pushed back on the results with a poll of his own showing him with a narrow two-point lead.