DCCC polling shows 3 top GOP targets vulnerable over the shutdown

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The automated surveys, conducted in the districts of Reps. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) and Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.), indicates a majority of voters are less likely to vote for him once "they have heard that he stood with Congressional Republicans in supporting the government shutdown." 

This is a key message the DCCC has been pushing in robocalls and radio ads in recent weeks. Democrats have sought to tie the shutdown around the necks of the entire Republican Caucus in the House, particularly its most vulnerable members.

Each poll was conducted over just one day, so they're merely a snapshot in time — but they're the latest indication, in a steady stream of polling, that the Democrats' strategy could pay off. Last week, DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) outlined three districts in which the shutdown had boosted recruitment. And prior to that, Democrats released more district-specific polling that showed the shutdown hurting some of the GOP's most vulnerable incumbents.

The new surveys also show the congressmen either trailing or tied with a Democratic opponent.

Paulsen trails an unnamed Democratic opponent by 6 points, with 37 percent to 43 percent support among likely voters, and a little more than a third of respondents say they're planning to reelect him.

Walberg is in a statistical dead-heat with his likely Democratic opponent, Pam Byrnes, taking 43 percent to her 42 percent support among likely voters, and less than a third of respondents say they plan to reelect him in 2014, while the rest are open to someone else.

Coffman is again in a statistical dead-heat with his likely opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, taking 42 percent to Romanoff's 43 percent support. Only a quarter of voters say they plan to reelect him next year.

In each of the three districts, voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the use of the shutdown in disagreements over the budget and funding the healthcare reform law. In Coffman's and Paulsen's district, 50 percent or more of respondents blame Republicans more than Obama and congressional Democrats for the shutdown.

In Colorado's 6th District, the DCCC surveyed 475 likely 2014 general election voters on Oct. 5, and the poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

In Minnesota's 3rd District, the DCCC surveyed 502 likely 2014 general election voters on Oct. 6, and the poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

In Michigan's 7th District, the DCCC surveyed 448 likely 2014 general election voters on Oct. 5, and the poll has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.