Well more than half of the four or five dozen undecided health care votes will come from districts where the incumbent is at least somewhat vulnerable.

If Democrats can’t lock down the non-vulnerables and retirees, they will have a very difficult time passing the bill. Assuming they can do it, attention will turn to these vulnerables.

Republicans have already picked off about 30 of the 38 votes they need to kill the bill, meaning only about seven ‘no’ votes can come from this group.

Here’s a rundown of where they stand. I will be updating this as the day progresses. Yesses will be crossed out; nos will be in bold.

Updated at 8:23 p.m. Three of these members have now said they will vote 'no': Reps. Glenn Nye (D-Va.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Zack Space (D-Ohio).

‘No’ votes last time:

Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.)

Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.)

Rep. Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.)

Firm Stupak bloc (have given ultimatums on abortion):

Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)

Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio)

Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.)

Soft Stupak (i.e. amendment supporters, but no ultimatum):

Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.)

Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.)

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.)

Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.)

Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.)

Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.)

Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.)

Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.)

Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.)

‘Yes’ leaners (must-haves):

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.)

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.)

Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.)

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.)

Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio)

Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.)

Modest reelection concerns (must-haves):

Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.)

Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.)

Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.)

Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.)

Anybody’s guess:

Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.)

Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.)

Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio)

Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.)

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.)

Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.)

Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.)

Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.)

Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.)