Voting is under way in the election to replace now-Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) in the House, and early results indicate a very low turnout and a Republican advantage.
Democratic state Treasurer Kate Marshall is squaring off against Republican former state Sen. Mark Amodei in the Republican-leaning district.
The Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston reports that in Washoe County, which includes Reno and is the biggest swing area in the district, 52 percent of early voters on Monday were registered Republicans, while only 36 percent were registered Democrats. While party registration and actual voting patterns do not directly correspond, especially once Independents are factored in, a strong Republican edge in the key swing area does not bode well for a Marshall upset.
President Obama won the county by 55 percent to 42 percent in 2008 but still narrowly lost the district, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) won the district by a just five-point margin en route to his 2010 reelection, which he won by six points.
Sources in both parties say their internal polling suggests Amodei has about a 10-point lead heading into the election. Republicans have held the district for decades.