House races

Connecticut Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal (D) remains out front of his GOP rivals in a new Rasmussen Reports poll. 

The state's attorney general garnered more than 50 percent support from likely voters and held a double-digit lead when matched against the top three Republican candidates.

Blumenthal led former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon by 52 to 39 percent. In a match up with former Rep. Rob Simmons, the Democrat’s support climbed to 55, while the Republican got 32 percent.

Investment banker Peter Schiff trailed Blumenthal 54 to 29 percent.

There was some good news for McMahon from May 4 survey -- she was the only Republican candidate who beat Blumenthal among Independent voters. She also had the highest favorability rating of the GOP field. 

The poll will also be a relief to Blumenthal, who had been called "Martha Coakley in pants" in a recent New York Times profile. The paper wrote in the April piece, "He appears almost incapable of offering concise answers to even the most predictable questions, like why he is running for the Senate."

 

Former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) wrapped up his second big newspaper endorsement in the Hawaii special election to fill Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D) seat.

In an editorial Thursday, the Honolulu Star-Bulletin called Case "a fiscally moderate Democrat who exercises independence from his party's Hawaii establishment" and urged readers to vote for him May 22.

Case was endorsed in April by the Honolulu Advertiser’s editorial board.

Still, state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) is putting on a brave face -- despite polls showing her trailing Case and Republican Charles Djou.

"I'm staying in this race for the people who have supported me, who have made phone calls for me who have knocked on doors for me, who have waved signs for me, who have donated to my campaign," Hanabusa said during a press conference Wednesday. 

Reps. Dan Burton (R-Ind.) and Mark Souder (R-Ind.) emerged from Tuesday’s primaries bruised but unbeaten. Their performances, however, won’t do much to hearten members worried about their own primaries.

So, as we talk about this pervasive anti-incumbent mood, who’s next? In fact, several other members of Congress will learn their primary fates in the coming days and weeks.

The Ballot Box looks at incumbents who could fall in the next month:

Saturday – Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah): The three-term senator has turned into an underdog at his state party convention this weekend, and recent polls suggest he might not even make the final ballot at the convention, which would effectively end his tenure in the Senate.

Tuesday – Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.): Mollohan faces state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who nearly outraised him in the first quarter and led him 41-33 in an internal poll two weeks ago.

May 18 – Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.): Could two Democratic senators fall on one primary day? They could. Both Lincoln and Specter have seen their leads shrink to single digits. The most vulnerable man that day, though, might be Kanjorski, who faces Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien.

June 1 – Rep. Parker Griffith (R-Ala.): Much like Specter, Griffith is dealing with the aftermath of a party switch. He went the other way, to become a Republican, and the GOP primary never cleared. Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Phillip will battle with Griffith over who is the real conservative Republican in the race.

Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) insisted he will run for reelection this year, saying that Rep. David Obey's (D-Wis.) retirement has no bearing on his race.

"I've made my decision," Rangel told The Hill.

New York state assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV is challenging Rangel in the Democratic primary.

Rangel said that he will run for another term when reporters whether the news about Obey, the House Appropriations Committee chairman and 20-term House member, makes him think about leaving Congress. 

"That’s a very, very good question, but I don’t know how to be more clear that each situation has to really depend on the individual," Rangel said. 

"If this becomes a difficult job — believe me, none of us were drafted and there are plenty of people that are eligible and qualified to take our place," he added. "It's not one of these things where you look and see what someone else has done and think it impacts you."

The 20-term incumbent said he's "bone-tired"; his decision is the biggest retirement for House Democrats this cycle.

Lots of names were on the ballot on Tuesday. In case you don't want to go through each individual race, The Ballot Box gives a quick and dirty version of the winners and losers:

Winners

1. Elaine Marshall

Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham looked to be closing the gap in the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary, and he had the national party behind him, at least in spirit. But Marshall came away with a nine-point edge, 36-27, and polling shows she enters their June 22 runoff with a significant edge. A recent Public Policy Polling (D) poll shows she would take 51 percent of the vote from candidates who didn’t make the runoff, while Cunningham would take 27 percent.

Now it will be up to Cunningham to raise big money and drown Marshall in advertising. Despite not raising much money, she is proving to be no pushover. The runoff is June 22.

2. NRCC

It wasn’t pretty, and in fact, it was downright ugly in many cases, but the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) got its chosen candidates through on Tuesday. In Indiana, state Rep. Jackie Walorski, Dr. Larry Bucshon and attorney Todd Young all won. In North Carolina, Iraq veteran Ilario Pantano and businessman Jeff Miller both appear to have avoided runoffs. And in Ohio, state Sen. Bob Gibbs’s apparent narrow victory in Rep. Zack Space’s (D-Ohio) district (there could be a recount) gave the NRCC a sweep there.

Businessman Jim Renacci, a top GOP recruit, has survived a primary scare and will face Rep. John Boccieri (D-Ohio) in November.

Renacci faced former Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller, a meagerly funded candidate who had nonetheless taken 42 percent of the vote in each of the past two primaries in the district. Miller turned in a similar performance this time, but Renacci led him 49-41 with 75 percent of precincts in. The race has been called for Renacci.

Renacci has achieved the second step of the NRCC's Young Guns program for top challengers, and his strong fundraising has made him a candidate the party has heralded as someone who could lead the GOP back to the majority.

Another member of the Young Guns program, Ohio state Sen. Bob Gibbs, was struggling with his primary in the nearby 18th district. Gibbs trailed 2008 nominee Fred Dailey 21.6 percent to 21.2 percent with 93 percent of precincts reporting in Rep. Zack Space's (D-Ohio) district. The primary may require a recount.

Attorney Todd Young and Dr. Larry Bucshon will be the GOP nominees in a pair of top pickup opportunities in southern Indiana.

Young defeated a field that included former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.) to win the nod to face Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.), while Bucshon survived a scare from a Tea Party candidate an will be the party’s candidate in Rep. Brad Ellsworth’s (R-Ind.) district.

Buschon led 33-29 with 94 percent of precincts, while Young led activist Travis Hankins 34-32 with 99 percent of precincts reporting. Sodrel was third, with 31 percent.

In a cycle that features many former members of Congress running for their old seats, Sodrel was the first to actually face voters.

Sodrel and Young were both part of the NRCC’s Young Guns program for top challengers, but party leaders will be happy to turn the page on Sodrel. In four straight races against Hill, he has lost three times, including by 20 points in 2008.

Bucshon was the only candidate in his district to be part of the Young Guns program. He will face state Rep. Trent Van Haaften, who was unopposed on the Democratic side. Ellsworth is running for Senate.

Both races are widely considered to be toss-ups.

Rep. Dan Burton (R-Ind.) won his primary Tuesday, but he took less than 30 percent of vote.

Burton beat former state Rep. Luke Messer 29.7 percent to 27.6 percent, with 99.4 percent of precincts reporting. Three more candidates, including the man who nearly beat Burton in 2008, Dr. John McGoff, split up the rest of the vote.

Most of the candidates were well-funded. They tried at certain points in the race to narrow the field to face Burton, but in the end, nobody would step aside, and Burton benefitted.

Burton’s win was about as tenuous as they come, but his district is a safe one for Republicans.

Burton wasn’t the only incumbent to face a scare in the state Tuesday. Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.) won his primary with less than 50 percent of the vote, defeating car dealer Bob Thomas 48-34.

Democratic Reps. Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell of North Carolina appear to be feeling the heat from their party's base. Both voted against healthcare reform and each ceded almost 40 percent of the primary vote to virtually unknown challengers.

Shuler bested challenger Aixa Wilson by about 60 percent to 40 percent, according to unofficial results, but Wilson edged Schuler by almost 600 votes in Buncombe County, home of Asheville.

Kissell defeated challenger Nancy Shakir 63 to 37 percent.

Meanwhile, Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) cruised to the nomination with some 80 percent of the vote, according to the unofficial results. The Democratic primary has broken into a two-way race between Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. 

Updated at 10:06 p.m.