House races

Something to keep an eye on: There seems to be a gap forming betwen those who want a full repeal of the healthcare bill and GOP leaders.

On the side of full repeal are conservatives (see: Club for Growth). RedState.com's Erick Erickson put it this way: "Let me be blunt: any Republican who says we will repeal and replace will themselves be replaced. We want repeal, period."

NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas), meanwhile, seemed to suggest a more incremental approach.

"I would be hard pressed to say repeal the whole thing,” he told the Daily Caller, pointing to the GOP proposals that were included in the bill.

The chairman of the NRSC, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), has also suggested that repeal would be difficult.

Because of the realities of the process, GOP leaders have to be careful about promising too much. But they've got a fired up base to deal with, too, so it's going to be a balancing act.

The influx of press releases from Republicans has been staggering over the last half an hour.

And even though many Democrats have been reticent to talk about the issue, a few of their candidates are having a go at it, as well.

Louisiana state Rep. Cedric Richmond faces the only Republican thought to be a potential crossover vote, Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.), in a heavily Democratic district. Cao wound up voting in unison with his party.

Richmond defended the abortion agreement reached late Sunday and said Cao missed an opportunity. He also suggested Cao was bought off by party leaders.

“I am deeply disappointed that after being thrown a fundraiser by Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner the week before the vote, Congressman Cao went against the will and health of his district by joining Congressional Republicans in voting against this historic and urgent legislation to reform our country’s healthcare system," Richmond said.

Ann McLane Kuster, who is running for the competitive open seat left by Senate candidate Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.), praised the bill's passage.

"Tonight the U.S. House of Representatives passed historic health care reform that will make a real difference for New Hampshire families and businesses," she said.

Physician Manan Trivedi, who was an early supporter of the healthcare bill and is running in a primary to face Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), played up his early support but said the bill needs work.

"“The bill that passed the House today is a good start, but I will work to make it better once I am in Congress,”  Trivedi said. "In my opinion, healthcare reform begins with this legislation, it does not end with this legislation."

UPDATE 8:24 p.m.: Kanjorski and Donnelly are both 'yes's. Boucher and Sanchez remain the odd members out.

UPDATE 4:30 p.m.: With the Stupak deal going through, Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Rahall and Mollohan now appear to be 'yes's.

There now remain fewer than 10 vulnerable Democrats who are undecided on the healthcare bill. Here’s a recap:

-Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) – was thought to be a pretty firm no until recently. Represents one of the most conservative districts held by a Democrat.

-Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.) – unclear where she stands, but we know abortion language (she opposes federal funding) is a big issue for her.

-Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) – said he couldn’t support public funding of abortion, but so did Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.), and Carney has decided to support the bill.

-Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) – sounds a little firmer that Carney and Donnelly if Stupak concerns aren’t met. His office reaffirmed Saturday he is a no unless something changes on abortion.

-Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) – has taken the same tack as Driehaus, but he’s a chairman, so if leadership needs him, he may be more willing to sign on.

-Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) – faces challenges from the left and right this year. Continues to be mum.

-Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) – faces a more difficult race than his West Virginia colleague, Rahall.

-Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) – sounds like a ‘no,’ but she has broken late before. After missing some votes Saturday, she will be there for the healthcare bill.

Well more than half of the four or five dozen undecided health care votes will come from districts where the incumbent is at least somewhat vulnerable.

If Democrats can’t lock down the non-vulnerables and retirees, they will have a very difficult time passing the bill. Assuming they can do it, attention will turn to these vulnerables.

Republicans have already picked off about 30 of the 38 votes they need to kill the bill, meaning only about seven ‘no’ votes can come from this group.

Here’s a rundown of where they stand. I will be updating this as the day progresses. Yesses will be crossed out; nos will be in bold.

Updated at 8:23 p.m. Three of these members have now said they will vote 'no': Reps. Glenn Nye (D-Va.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Zack Space (D-Ohio).

‘No’ votes last time:

Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.)

Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.)

Rep. Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.)

Firm Stupak bloc (have given ultimatums on abortion):

Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)

Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio)

Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.)

Soft Stupak (i.e. amendment supporters, but no ultimatum):

Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.)

Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.)

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.)

Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.)

Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.)

Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.)

Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.)

Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.)

Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.)

‘Yes’ leaners (must-haves):

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.)

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.)

Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.)

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.)

Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio)

Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.)

Modest reelection concerns (must-haves):

Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.)

Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.)

Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.)

Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.)

Anybody’s guess:

Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.)

Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.)

Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio)

Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.)

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.)

Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.)

Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.)

Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.)

Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.)

Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.), who has emerged as an unexpected GOP target this year, appears to be a firm 'yes' on the healthcare bill.

There had been some uncertainty about Klein's vote, but the Palm Beach Post points out that Klein urged his colleagues to support the bill in a floor speech Saturday. Klein's office pointed to the speech when asked about his position on the bill.

"We owe it to our seniors; they have paid into the Medicare Trust Fund," Klein said. "Taking care of our seniors is one of my top priorities. Benefits like these are critical to seniors in South Florida and around the country.

"I thank you and urge support of the bill."

Klein faces a rematch with former Army Lt. Col. Allen West, who ran a stronger than expected 2008 campaign and has emerged as a top hope for the NRCC. The committee has made him one of 10 members to reach the final step of its Young Guns program for challengers.

Democratic lawmakers facing tough reelections won't be met with defeat this fall because of their healthcare vote today, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Sunday.

Van Hollen, who, as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), oversees the party's midterm election efforts in the House, rejected the idea that incumbents could be hurt by voting for the bill.

"No they're not facing defeat," Van Hollen said during an appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation."

A number of Democrats, including many in competitive House districts, have announced that they will vote against health reform legislation during this afternoon's vote.

Van Hollen, who also serves as a member of the House Democratic leadership, asserted that once benefits from the bill's enactment become known, it would ease any political pressure on those lawmakers.

"Once we pass this bill, everyone's going to see that all those horror stories aren't going to come true," he said. "In fact, they're going to begin to see the benefits."

North Dakota state Rep. Rick Berg will face Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) in November, after defeating state Public Service Commission Kevin Cramer for the GOP nod.

From the Bismarck Tribune:

The Republican Convention has given its endorsement to Fargo Rep. Rick Berg for the U.S. House race.

Berg will face Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., in the general election.

“We are unified in our belief that our representative in Congress is not representing us and must be changed,” said Berg on Saturday. “It’s time to give North Dakota’s representational seat back to the people.”

Berg beat out the other likely front runner, Public Service Commission Chairman Kevin Cramer, as well as candidates J.D. Donaghe of Kenmare and DuWayne Hendrickson of Minot.

Berg beat Cramer by 972 to 442 votes.

Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.), one of a few key Democrats that leaders hoped to flip from 'no' to 'yes' on the healthcare bill, said Saturday that he will remain a 'no.'

Democratic leaders successfully flipped Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.) and Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.) in recent days, but Nye won't be following suit.

Nye announced via press release that he couldn't abide cuts to children's hospitals and the cost of the program.

“Over the past year, I have spoken with countless small business owners, families, medical professionals, and average citizens across Virginia’s 2nd district, and it became very clear that this bill was not the right solution for Virginia’s health care challenges,” Nye said. “There were many strong points in this bill that I would have been happy to support individually, but the package as a whole had serious problems.”

Nye is a top GOP target in 2010. GOP leaders are high on the candidacy of businessman Scott Rigell, but he faces a primary first.

Former Rep. Bill Sali (R-Idaho) will not seek a return to Congress, he announced Friday.

But before exiting the scene, he endorsed the outsider candidate in the race, state Rep. Raul Labrador, over Iraq veteran Vaughn Ward.

Sali has been toying with a return bid ever since losing his seat after one term in 2008. In the end, his decision not to run again was a sigh of relief for the party, who wanted to go in a different direction.

But if Labrador can turn Sali's support into some real momentum, a tough primary could be in the making for Ward. Ward is a part of the NRCC's Young Guns program; Labrador is not.

Idaho's filing deadline is today.

UPDATE: The Idaho Statesman reports Sali had some choice words about Ward:

"Vaughn has served our country with distinction and we owe him a debt of gratitude for that, as we do all of our veterans. But I have to tell you, sending Vaughn Ward to Washington, D.C., is a little bit like sending a Boy Scout to Iraq. He doesn't have any experience casting tough votes. He doesn't have experience in the political arena."

It appears Pennsylvania Republican Pat Meehan jumped the gun in trying to have the challenge to his nominating petitions dismissed.

On Thursday, an attorney for Meehan filed a motion to dismiss the challenge based on the fact that the campaign had not yet been served with a copy of the complaint.

The Meehan camp's motion claimed that Commonwealth Court procedures required the four Republican petitioners to serve Meehan with the complaint by 5 p.m. Wednesday. In fact, Meehan doesn't have to be served until 5 p.m. on March 29 -- nullifying the initial grounds for dismissal.

James Colins, Meehan's attorney and a former Commonwealth Court judge, acknowledged to local reporters that that the finding "would make my motion moot," but noted he would wait for a court ruling on it. He added, "But it still doesn't add any credibility to the petition to remove [Meehan] from the ballot."