Top of the ballot: Super 12

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) will make sure she gets at least one vote Tuesday when she casts her ballot in Little Rock, the Tea Party vote may splinter in Nevada and Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk continues to lose friends and alienate people.

Will the unity rally get canceled?

Twelve states vote Tuesday, but attention will be focused on Arkansas, where the Senate runoff between Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) will be settled.

To avoid any confusion, Lincoln will vote "in person" at her polling place in Little Rock with a traditional ballot, according to a spokeswoman for her campaign.

Her vote may be one of the few she gets from a female Arkansan, reports the Christian Science Monitor. Arkansas Democrat Nancy Baker tells the paper: Lincoln "has forgotten the Democratic party. We refer to her as the plantation princess. She's gone completely to the right."

Lincoln's centrist credentials may help her in a general election against Rep. John Boozman (R-Ark.). But she's first going to have to defeat Halter, champion of the fired-up progressive wing of her party. And that victory may sap the energy of the Arkansas Democratic Party.

And then there were two

Sources tell the Ballot Box that Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle is all but assured of capturing an Election Day victory Tuesday. But in order for her to secure the nomination, she'll need to run up big margins in rural Nevada, home to much of her Tea Party base. If she can do that, it will offset the vote totals that former state Sen. Sue Lowden (R) and Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian (R) will rack up in Clark County.

But late Monday the Tea Party Nation, a national umbrella group for the movement, sent an e-mail to supporters saying that Angle was "not the only conservative" in the race.

The group said Tarkanian "is every bit a conservative and constitutional patriot." If Tarkanian can siphon Tea Party votes from Angle, it may give Lowden a path to victory.

Enviros give Kirk the red light

The Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters are expected to announce Tuesday they've decided to endorse Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in the Illinois Senate race.

Environmental groups passing over a Republican to endorse a Democrat isn't typically big news, but this is significant because both groups have in the past endorsed Kirk. The issue this time: cap-and-trade.

Kirk voted for the House cap-and-trade bill last June, but has since moved away from supporting the legislation. "We can no longer depend on how he is going to vote," Tony Massaro, a spokesman for the League of Conservation Voters, told the Chicago Sun-Times.