South Carolina Democrats are stuck with Alvin Greene, a new poll has Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.) down a point and is 2010 really shaping up like 1994?
It's Greene versus DeMint
Democrats in South Carolina have decided not to overturn Greene's victory in last week's Democratic Senate primary. That means Greene will remain on the ballot and face Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) in November.
The party's executive committee rejected a plea Thursday night from Greene's primary challenger, Vic Rawl, to overturn the results.
Despite not holding a single campaign event, Greene defeated Rawl handily last week, winning just shy of 60 percent of the vote. After digging into the results, the Rawl campaign claimed evidence of voting irregularities and House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) suggested Greene was a Republican "plant."
Greene was a no-show at Thursday night's meeting.
Is Etheridge really in trouble?
A Survey USA poll released Thursday showed Etheridge trailing Republican opponent Renee Ellmers by a point. The poll gave Ellmers a 39-38 percent lead. Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garnered 14 percent.
The numbers come in the wake of Etheridge's confrontation with two men on a Washington street, which was videotaped and spread across the Internet.
A caution on these numbers — it's a poll of 400 registered voters, not likely voters. And Ellmers was bound to get a poll bounce in the immediate aftermath of the Etheridge video flap. Polling analyst Tom Jensen thinks a little more distance from the incident might offer a better snapshot of the race.
1994 all over again?
Not exactly, according to a new analysis by noted political scientist Alan Abramowitz. But he does predict Republicans will regain control of the House right on the number — picking up 39 seats this fall and giving the GOP control of the House 219-218.
The mood of the electorate today is similar to 1994, Abramowitz wrote on Larry Sabato's website, but when it comes to the political territory in play, he offered some key distinctions.
"Democrats hold 256 House seats today, just as they did in 1994," he wrote. "However, fewer of their seats today are in marginal or Republican-leaning districts while more are in strongly Democratic districts. In addition, Democrats are defending only 19 open seats this year compared with 31 open seats in 1994. As a result, Democrats are in a stronger position to defend their majority this year than they were in 1994."