OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: Proxy battles and recall matches

TOP STORY: A tale of two states

Wisconsin and New Jersey: two very different states, two very different contests. But they’re the ones to watch on Tuesday.

Democrats and union activists were playing damage control Monday ahead of the recall election of Wisconsin's Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who is widely expected to prevail.
 
Publicly, union officials and Democrats expressed confidence Walker would be defeated by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) despite polls showing Walker with an edge.
 
But in private, a number of Democrats and labor activists were already trying to put the best spin possible on a loss — even as some pointed fingers over who would be to blame for a defeat.

Some union officials and activists partly blamed President Obama for refusing to help in what they still saw as a winnable race, while some Democratic insiders quietly complained that the race was always an uphill battle.
 
One union official involved in the race argued that even if Walker won on Tuesday, he was so wounded from the recall that he will be rendered ineffective for the remainder of his term.
 

"[Walker] has two outcomes for tomorrow, which is be removed from office or survive. Neither is a great victory for him," said the official, who predicted a Barrett victory. "He is going to come out of this thing battered even if he wins. ... If it's a Democratic state Senate, that weakens him even more."

And, in New Jersey, the Democratic primary between Reps. Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell has become a proxy battle between Obama and former President Clinton.

Aides to both presidents said their conflicting positions in Tuesday’s contest has not led to any tension between the two, who were scheduled to appear together at three New York fundraisers Monday night to benefit Obama’s reelection campaign.

But a source with knowledge of the House race said the division clearly indicated that Obama and Clinton both have long memories and strong loyalties to their earliest supporters.
 
“They both definitely notice when the other throws his weight around against one of their friends,” the source said. “What we saw in this case was a ratcheting up of support — a cold arms race between the two sides.”

Check out all the details on both races in Tuesday’s edition of The Hill or on thehill.com. 

TOMORROW’S AGENDA TODAY: Mitt Romney will campaign in Fort Worth, Texas, on Tuesday. First lady Michelle Obama will join Walt Disney Co. Chairman Robert Iger at D.C.'s Newseum to announce changes to Disney’s existing nutrition guidelines policy.

TWEET OF THE DAY: “I have a big announcement coming on Friday! Stay tuned!” — Rick Santorum. 

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He does a little bit of an impersonation of me that's a bit eerie” — Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), of Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) (ABC News). 

POLL POSITION:

Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Tom Barrett, 50 percent to 47, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Monday.

Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by 48 percent of voters in a new CNN-ORC poll, a huge jump for the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. 

AD WATCH:

Actress Sarah Jessica Parker on Sunday touted President Obama's reelection efforts in the campaign's first national televised ad, which aired during the MTV Movie Awards. 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE:

Arizona: A Democratic super-PAC is running an ad in the special election race to replace Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) that features the Republican nominee calling Giffords "a hero of nothing." The remarks, by Republican candidate Jesse Kelly, were made in August 2010 — about five months before the shooting spree in Giffords's district that wounded the congresswoman.

Connecticut: Connecticut state House Speaker Chris Donovan (D) has vowed to stay in his congressional race despite the arrest of his finance director by the FBI.

New York: The campaign adviser who suggested that opponents "hurl some acid at those female Democratic senators" has resigned from the congressional campaign of Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.). 

SENATE SHOWDOWN:

Arizona: The Club for Growth will drop half a million dollars on ads attacking Wil Cardon, the real estate mogul challenging Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) in the GOP primary for Arizona's open Senate seat.

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) have agreed to debates in their closely watched Senate contest, just after the Harvard professor clinched the Democratic nomination in commanding fashion.

Nevada: Rep. Shelley Berkley’s (D) campaign is taking its 60-second television ad highlighting teh congresswoman's leadership on veterans' issues statewide. The ad previously aired only in Reno. 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

President Obama's senior campaign adviser, David Axelrod, is crying foul over the Romney campaign’s comparison of the two presidential contender’s economic records, accusing the campaign of “breathtaking hypocrisy” by employing a double standard.

Obama's campaign manager, Jim Messina, released a Web video looking to allay the worries of supporters who have seen Mitt Romney rally in the polls after emerging from a bruising Republican primary.

Despite criticism from some within the Democratic Party, the Obama campaign said it was “just beginning” to roll out attacks against Romney over his career as an executive at Bain Capital.

Romney has tapped Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) as his liaison to the House.

Romney’s campaign has hired Mike Leavitt to head a White House transition team in the event that the presumptive GOP nominee defeats Obama in the November election.

Herman Cain will take over conservative radio host Neal Boortz's syndicated talk show next year.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said over the weekend that Hillary Clinton should run for president in 2016. "She's our shot" that year, Pelosi told the San Francisco Chronicle. "Why wouldn't she run? She's a magnificent secretary of State.”

Obama’s campaign is suing a Democrat-friendly merchandise company for trademark infringement due to the company’s use of familiar pro-Obama logos. 

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