Top of the ballot: Worst week for incumbents?

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already drawn its conclusions about Tuesday's primaries, Dr. Rand Paul (R) is ready to host a tea party in Kentucky, and Pennsylvania's special election is heading to a "photo finish," according to a new poll.

Heads we win, tails you lose

The NRSC believes the closely fought primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas have exposed fissures in the Democratic Party.

"At best the White House political operation will narrowly win two Democratic primaries tomorrow, at worst they lost both after being heavily involved at the outset," Rob Jesmer, NRSC's executive director, wrote in a memo released Monday. "It should raise serious questions in the minds of Democratic Senate candidates whether the President and the Democrats' Washington agenda will be a benefit or a detriment to their campaigns this November."

The committee also happily pointed to Organizing for America's efforts on behalf of Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), who is polling neck-and-neck with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

"The perception that the president's vaunted grassroots organization and his fundraising ability which led him to victory in 2008 would somehow transfer to Democratic candidates in 2010 has been exposed to be a paper tiger," Jesmer said.

From Utah to Kentucky

Paul told the New York Times this weekend that he plans to ride the "wave" of Tea Party support to victory in Tuesday's primary with Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R).

"There's a Tea Party tidal wave coming. It's already hit Utah and it's coming to Kentucky," Paul told the paper. "The day of reckoning is coming."

What's interesting about Kentucky is that only voters who registered as Republicans before Dec. 31, 2009, can vote in the GOP primary, which means that latecomers to the movement will be shut out. If Paul does win, it may say more about the changing mood of the GOP than the power of the Tea Party movement.

And the winner is …

Republican Tim Burns has a slight edge ahead of Tuesday's special election for the late Rep. John Murtha's (D-Pa.) seat. He leads Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 percent in a new Public Policy Polling survey of the race.

PPP points out in a release: "There's been very little movement in the race since PPP polled it a month ago. The main difference is that negative campaigning has driven up both candidates' negatives by 10-11 points. Where Burns' favorability was a net +19 in April it's now just +8. And where Critz was previously at a net +7 it's now -6."