Poll: Donald Trump on Romney's tail in NH

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney still leads the GOP pack in New Hampshire, but real estate mogul Donald Trump is within striking distance, according to a new poll out Tuesday.

New numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Romney leading the group of rumored GOP hopefuls with 27 percent of the vote. Trump comes in a close second at 21 percent.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee come in third with 12 percent of the vote, followed by Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) at 9 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 7.

Pollster Tom Jensen attributes Trump's strong showing to Tea Party activists and "birthers." The poll found that 42 percent of Republican voters surveyed do not believe President Obama was born in the United States. Among that group, Trump tops Romney 22 percent to 21.

Trump has taken up the "birther" cause over the past two weeks, demanding that President Obama release his birth certificate and saying questions over whether Obama was truly born in the U.S. are legitimate.

Despite the seemingly strong showing for Trump, though, his negatives are higher than any other rumored GOP hopeful's. The poll found 41 percent of New Hampshire Republicans hold a favorable opinion of Trump, while 43 percent view him unfavorably. That's second only to Palin, who's viewed negatively by 39 percent of Republican voters in the state.

With Trump out of the race, Romney holds a sizable early lead in the state, garnering 31 percent of the vote to Huckabee's 15 and Gingrich's 13. Palin is tied with Paul in the fourth spot with 10 percent of the vote, followed by 4 percent for Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. 

One potential warning sign for Romney, notes Jensen, is the 61 percent of primary voters who said they wouldn't support a candidate who backed a bill on the state level with a mandate to purchase health insurance.

"In five of the six horse-race questions we asked, Romney still leads with those voters, suggesting that most Republicans who follow politics and the 2012 race only casually are not really aware of 'RomneyCare,' " writes Jensen. "It's safe to say they'll be well-aware of it nine months from now, and it's going to be interesting to see if Romney can sustain his support once he's been endlessly bashed over the head with it."

The poll surveyed 384 New Hampshire Republicans and has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.