Poll shows Maine Rep. Michaud in solid shape for reelection

By Josh Lederman - 02/02/12 06:40 PM ET

Rep. Michael Michaud (D-Maine) has a 23-point lead over the Republican seeking to oust him in November, according to a poll commissioned by his campaign and obtained by The Hill.

Michaud takes 55 percent to Maine state Senate President Kevin Raye's (R) 32 percent in the survey by Democratic pollster Jill Normington. Just 19 percent of voters view him unfavorably, a remarkably low number for an incumbent member of Congress.

Even among Republicans, his 33 percent favorability rating exceeds the 27 percent who view him unfavorably.

"He has broad and bipartisan support that gives him solid footing as the election year begins," Normington wrote in a polling memo.

Republicans said the numbers weren't surprising coming from a Democratic pollster, adding that the path to victory in the seat remained clear for a Republican candidate. The state's two popular Republican senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, have historically maintained approval ratings in the 60s and low 70s.

"Independent minded Mainers have grown sick and tired of President Obama’s job-destroying tax and spend agenda," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Nathaniel Sillin. "That agenda is exactly what Mike Michaud is going to have to defend having voted in lock step with the President and his party 90 percent of the time during the last three years."

Raye's first contest with Michaud came in 2002, the year Michaud was elected to the House. Raye won the GOP primary, but Michaud used his work for Snowe in the Senate to paint him as a Washington insider, and Raye lost by five points.

Michaud won his last reelection by 10 points, and the district leans Democratic, having supported President Obama in 2008 and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004. But Snowe, one of the most popular Senate Republicans, will be on the ballot in November, which could give Raye a boost if he wins the primary.

The poll of 400 likely Maine voters was conducted Jan. 23-25 using live telephone interviews and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.