Poll: GOP ahead in Arizona Senate race

Republicans are well-positioned to retain the Senate seat that retiring Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) is vacating, a new poll shows.

Republicans had been favored early to win the seat that retiring Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) is vacating in this conservative state, but the growth of the state's Hispanic population, combined with successful Democratic recruiting, has led some Democrats to argue the seat is now in play.

Democrats still have a ways to go, according to a survey released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. The two Republicans leading in the primary beat the top two Democrats vying for the nomination.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) beats both of the Democrats — former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona and former state party Chairman Don Bivens — by 11 points in a hypothetical general-election match-up. Businessman Wil Cardon, who is challenging Flake in the GOP primary, beats Bivens by 6 points and Carmona by 4 points.

The poll is the second round of good news for Flake; a primary poll the firm released Saturday showed Flake with a commanding lead over Cardon in the primary.

But 23 percent of Democratic voters are undecided, compared to 14 percent for Republicans, who are already familiar with Flake. That could give Democrats a chance to define their candidate on their terms once the primary comes to a close.

The poll of 743 primary voters was conducted Feb. 17-19 using automated telephone interviews and had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

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