Poll: Cruz, Clinton lead in Texas
© Greg Nash

Ted CruzTed CruzGOP wrestles with soaring deductibles in healthcare bill Cruz: Tax reform chances ‘drop significantly’ if healthcare fails Ex-CBO directors defend against GOP attacks on ObamaCare analysis MORE leads the GOP field in his home state of Texas, a new poll finds.

Cruz takes 38 percent support, while Donald TrumpDonald TrumpTrump's forgotten man and woman — still forgotten Ex-Trump aide: Panel probing Russia sounding ‘more and more like McCarthy’ Trump visits Virginia golf club MORE receives 29 percent, according to a University of Texas-Texas Tribune survey released on Tuesday.

That’s in line with the RealClearPolitics average, which finds Cruz leading Trump 37 to 28 in the state.

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“It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

Rounding out the field are Marco RubioMarco RubioBush ethics lawyer: Congress must tell Trump not to fire Mueller The private alternative to the National Flood Insurance Program  Cruz offers bill to weaken labor board's power MORE, at 15 percent; Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race over the weekend, at 6 percent; John Kasich, at 5 percent; and Ben Carson, at 4 percent.

Voters in Texas will cast ballots on March 1, known as Super Tuesday, along with 10 other states.

Cruz’s surrogates acknowledge that Texas is a must-win state for him, as a home loss would call into question his prospects elsewhere.

Cruz has long held that the Southern states casting ballots on Super Tuesday will be his firewall, but a disappointing finish in South Carolina on Saturday has raised doubts about his evangelical support and organizational strength.

Among self-described “churchgoers” in Texas, though, Cruz leads Trump by double-digits, while Trump leads Cruz by double-digits among those who never attend church.

Texas will award its 155 delegates proportionately, with Cruz and Trump poised to take the lion’s share, according to most surveys.

On the Democratic side, Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonTrump's forgotten man and woman — still forgotten Sanders keeping door open on 2020 Schumer: Dems, not Russia, are to blame for loss to Trump MORE leads Bernie SandersBernie SandersSanders keeping door open on 2020 Parliamentarian deals setback to GOP repeal bill OPINION | Hey Dems, Russia won't define 2018, so why not fix your party's problems instead? MORE, 54 to 44.

Clinton is running up the score among minority voters in Texas, leading 70 to 27 with African-Americans, and 60 to 37 with Hispanics.

Sanders, meanwhile, takes 55 percent among white voters, compared to 44 for Clinton.

Clinton leads among every age group in the poll except for those between 18 and 29. Among the youngest voters, Sanders leads 62 to 29.

The UT-TT survey of 1,200 voters was conducted Feb. 12–19. The GOP poll has 4.2 point margin of error and the Democratic poll has a 5.4 point margin of error.