Poll: Collins favorite for reelection, but GOP in trouble if she retires

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) would be an overwhelming favorite for reelection to the Senate next year, but Republicans would struggle to retain her seat if she opted to retire, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The survey from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling found that 63 percent of voters in Maine approve of the three-term senator, and she holds wide leads over the state's two House members. In a hypothetical head-to-head, Collins defeats Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine) 54-36 percent and Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) 58-33 percent. In either contest, Collins carries more than a third of self-identified Democrats and leads among independents by more than 20 percentage points.

But there are lurking dangers to Republican chances to hold the seat: the possibility that Collins retires or faces a Tea Party challenge from the right. While Collins has the approval of two-thirds of GOP voters, in a hypothetical primary matchup against a "more conservative" opponent, she leads only 49-46 percent. Three quarters of those who describe themselves as "very conservative" — the group most likely to vote in a Republican primary — say they would like to replace Collins.

But if Collins is not the Republican nominee, Republicans will likely struggle to retain the seat. If former Secretary of State Charlie Summers — a likely Republican alternative — ran against either Michaud or Pingree, the incumbent members of Congress would have a decided advantage. Michaud leads Summers 57-32 percent, while Pingree holds a 50-39 percent edge.

Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in 2014 that comes from a state won by President Obama in 2012.

---