Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) is the latest Democrat on the short end of a poll.
Connolly's 2008 opponent, Keth Fimian, released a poll Tuesday showing the incumbent trailing 40-35 in a head-to-head matchup. The McLaughlin and Associates poll surveyed 300 likely votes in late February and early March and showed Fimian ahead 43-28 among independents.
Connolly dispatched Fimian 55-43 in 2008, but the district went even more for President Obama -- 57-42. It was hard to see this race emerging as a top target at the start of the cycle, but Fimian has plenty of money and looks to be making this a race. And the man Connolly replaced, former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), has said districts like his old one should be in play for the GOP.
Of course, first Fimian has to deal with the matter of a June 8 primary with Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity.
UPDATE: Democrats note that Fimian released a poll in July 2008 (when nobody knew who he was and Connolly was well-known), showing him trailing Connolly by just four, 29-25. He wound up losing by 12.