Polls

Democrat Richard Blumenthal has reasserted his lead over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut's Senate race, according to a new poll out Thursday.

The numbers have seesawed back and forth during the past few weeks, but the former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO now finds herself trailing by an 11-point margin.

New numbers from Quinnipiac University show Blumenthal with the lead — 54 percent to 43 percent. Another 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided, while 7 percent said they intend to vote for someone else.  

The numbers show sizable movement from a Q-poll late last month, which had Blumenthal ahead by just 3 points — 49 percent to 46 percent.

"Fueled by a surge in support from women, Democrats and independents, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has his best poll numbers since the start of the fall campaign,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Director Douglas Schwartz.

The McMahon campaign dismissed the new numbers Thursday, saying the movement toward Blumenthal is likely thanks to recent attack ads hitting McMahon, which the campaign labeled "misleading and untruthful." 

"We have always said this election will be close, and as is typically the case in close elections, polling will fluctuate," McMahon spokesman Ed Patru said in a statement. 

The poll found women supporting Blumenthal 66 percent to 32 percent, while Democrats back him by a commanding 95 percent to 4 percent margin and independents back him by a 49 percent to 44 percent margin. 

The independent vote has flip-flopped since the Sept. 28 poll, when it favored McMahon 49-44 percent.  

As state attorney general, 57 percent to 38 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal and 69 percent to 26 approve of the job he is doing. McMahon’s favorability is split at 46-46.  

First lady Michelle Obama, who has spent time campaigning for Blumenthal, received a 56 percent to 28 percent favorability rating. But 76 percent of likely Connecticut voters say her campaigning won’t impact their decision in November. 

President Obama wins approval from 47 percent of likely voters. 

The poll surveyed 1,119 likely Connecticut voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.  

Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

The Oct. 2-7 poll, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, examined the 10 open races in which Republicans hold two of the districts and Democrats control all the others. Six contests fell within the poll’s margin of error. District by district breakdowns are available. 

Voters also indicated they think a viable third party would be good for American politics.

This is the second batch of results from 42 districts The Hill is polling over a four-week period. The first week examined 12 endangered freshman lawmakers. Next week will focus on two-term incumbents, and finally, in the week before the election, the polls will take place in districts of long-term incumbents thought to be in trouble.

Of the 22 races polled so far, likely voters put Republicans ahead in 19, with Democrats ahead in just two, and one tied.

Republican Sharron Angle holds a narrow two-point edge over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), according to a new Fox News/Rasmussen poll out Tuesday.

Angle leads Reid 49 percent to 47 percent. Another 3 percent of likely voters said they intend to vote for another candidate, but the choice of Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian wasn't offered to survey respondents. In a recent CNN/Time poll, Ashjian captured 7 percent of the vote. 

Reflecting a high level of discontent with both Angle and Reid, a full 5 percent of likely voters said they intend to punch "none of the above" on Election Day, which is an actual option on Nevada's ballot.

Both Angle's and Reid's negatives are sky-high. A full 58 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Angle, while 56 percent said the same of Reid. 

Other numbers out Tuesday from Fox News/Rasmussen show Democrat Richard Blumenthal with a 6-point edge over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut's Senate contest, Republican Dino Rossi and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) in a dead heat in Washington state, and Republican Ron Johnson with a 7-point edge over Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.). 

New numbers on Delaware's Senate race still show Tea Party favorite Christine O'Donnell trailing Democrat Chris Coons by a 38 percent to 54 percent margin. 

Republicans maintained their edge over Democrats in the generic ballot as Nov. 2's elections drew nearer.

The GOP kept its healthy lead over Democrats in both high and low turnout scenarios in Gallup's weekly test of likely voters' preference between the two parties.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would back an unnamed Republican candidate for Congress in a test of a low-turnout scenario for the crucial midterm elections. Thirty-nine percent in that same model said they would back a Democratic candidate, an increase by one percent over last week.

In Gallup's high-turnout model, Republicans maintain a 53-41 percent advantage among likely voters. That also represented a one percent tick upward in support for Democrats.

The poll suggests that the GOP hasn't lost any steam in its bid to pick up 39-plus seats they need in the House to reclaim the majority. Democrats have claimed that support for Republican candidates has peaked, and that they're primed to make inroads into support for the GOP, though Gallup's weekly effort to track the generic ballot suggests that any Democratic gains have been marginal at best.

The data also comes after a week in which Democrats, led by President Obama, have pivoted to train their sights on groups that have spent on behalf of the GOP in the elections. The administration thinks it can get political traction from its attacks on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads by claiming those groups are spending foreign money on elections without having to disclose their sources of funding.

The latest poll, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 10, has a three percent margin of error for its sample of likely voters.

Republican Kelly Ayotte continues to hold a lead in New Hampshire’s Senate race, according to a new Rasmussen poll released Monday. 

Ayotte leads Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.) by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent. Three percent of voters prefer another candidate, while 2 percent remain undecided.  

The two clashed in their first debate of the contest Monday, focusing on spending and taxes. Ayotte favors permanent extension of Bush-era tax cuts, while Hodes only wants the cuts extended for families earning $250,000 and below a year. 

The Rasmussen numbers show a race largely unchanged in the past two months. In five previous surveys, Ayotte's support has hovered between 46 and 50 percent, while Hodes has received 35 percent to 44 percent of the vote.

The poll surveyed 750 likely New Hampshire voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus four percentage points. 

A handful of Senate races that were once considered toss-ups have shifted considerably in the direction of the GOP in recent weeks, while at least one other Senate contest has become a somewhat unexpected toss-up. 

In the latest update of our race ratings, three Senate races have shifted from "toss-up" to "lean Republican," and 15 House seats move further in the direction of the GOP.  

The one bit of good news for Democrats comes from Delaware, where a Senate seat that was once considered safely Republican now appears solidly in the Democratic column ahead of November. 

See the Ballot Box's complete race ratings here.

Senate: 

Pennsylvania Senate (OPEN): from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." Pennsylvania’s open seat now appears destined to fall into Republican hands. Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) has consistently led in recent polls. Some surveys show him ahead of Rep. Joe Sestak by as many as 9 points, and he’s even within the margin of error in the Democrat’s House district. Without a major momentum swing, the admiral could go down with the ship. 

Florida Senate (OPEN): from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." Republican Marco Rubio is expanding on his lead in recent Florida polls and took in a whopping $5 million in contributions in the third quarter. Democrat Kendrick Meek’s problem was highlighted this week when the Sierra Club co-endorsed him and Gov. Charlie Crist (I). With Meek and Crist splitting the left-leaning vote, this seat leans toward Rubio. 

Ohio Senate (OPEN): from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." In Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher’s campaign has been hamstrung by staff shake-ups and weak fundraising. A campaign memo that was leaked recently showed nothing’s changed — Fisher was actually considering cutting staff to free up money for more TV ads. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) is a formidable candidate, despite his ties to George W. Bush’s unpopular administration. Ohio and Florida aside, there is some good news for Democrats.

Delaware Senate (OPEN): from "LEAN DEMOCRATIC" to "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC." Republican Christine O’Donnell has yet to solidify her base, and with so little time left before Election Day, Democrat Chris Coons is likely to hold Vice President Joe Biden’s former seat. 

West Virginia Senate (OPEN): from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Gov. Joe Manchin's (D) lead has completely evaporated in the special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D). The latest polling shows Republican businessman John Raese in the lead as he continues to hammer Manchin with TV ads tying him to President Obama. Former President Bill Clinton is heading to the state to campaign for Manchin next week, though, and the Democrat was handed an opening given a still unfolding controversy over the language in a casting call for a GOP campaign ad, which called for actors with a "hickey" look.  

House:

On the House side, eight Democratic incumbents move from our "lean Democratic" category into "toss-up": Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.-2), Harry Mitchell (Ariz.-3), Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.-8), Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.-24), Bill Foster (Ill.-14), John Adler (N.J.-3), John Boccieri (Ohio-16) and Patrick Murphy (Pa.-8).

In all of these districts, Republicans have touted internal polls that show the incumbents in trouble, and public polling data has confirmed these members are very much on the ropes ahead of November. 

In Ohio's 16th District, new numbers from The Hill midterm poll show Boccieri trailing his Republican challenger Jim Renacci 42 percent to 39 percent.

In New Jersey, a Monmouth University/Gannett poll from the end of September showed Republican challenger and former NFL football player Jon Runyan within 3 points of Adler, whose reelection campaign was thrown into turmoil Friday after a report that his campaign helped a manufactured Tea Party candidate get on November's ballot to siphon away votes from Runyan. 

Our "lean Republican" category on the House side has grown by another five races. Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.-1), Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.-3), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio-15) and Glenn Nye (Va.-2) have all shifted to "lean Republican" given public polling data that has shown their reelection contests increasingly imperiled. 

In the latest round of numbers from The Hill midterm poll, all five members trail their Republican challengers and show weaknesses with independents. In Illinois, Halvorson is down 18 points to Republican Adam Kinzinger, and in Pennsylvania, Dahlkemper trails by 13 points.   

The Hill released its 2010 Midterm Election Poll on Wednesday and the Cook Report moved seven of the races featured in the poll from the toss-up catagory to the Lean R catagory on Friday.

The Hill's poll examined 12 congressional districts held by first-term Democratic lawmakers. All 12 are considered in tough reelection campaigns. In the seven races that moved, all the Democrats trailed their GOP challengers by various margins.

Here are the seven Democrats that moved catagories: Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.), Betsy Markey (Colo.), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.), Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio), Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.), Glenn Nye (Va.), and Tom Perriello (Va.).

The Hill's poll showed Halvorson in the toughest race, down by 18 points. Perriello was in the closest, only down by one point, but he's losing independent voters to his GOP challenger.

After a poll scare late last month, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) now holds a double-digit lead over her Republican challenger, according to new numbers out Friday from Quinnipiac University.  

Gillibrand leads ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R-N.Y.) by 21 percentage points — 55 percent to 34 percent. A Q-poll from shortly after her September primary gave Gillibrand just a 6-point edge over DioGuardi. 

Among women, Gillibrand leads 59 percent to 28 percent while she leads 51 percent to 39 percent among men. And Gillibrand's favorables are positive at 49-24 percent.

Despite Gillibrand's widening lead, Republicans might have missed an opportunity in this state. Several top-tier potential GOP challengers to Gillibrand passed on the race, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Gov. George Pataki.   

Friday's poll also gave Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) a commanding lead over his Republican challenger Jay Townsend. The incumbent leads 63 percent to 32 percent. 

"If Republicans are going to take back the U.S. Senate, it doesn’t look as if New York will be much help," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute. 

The poll surveyed 1,141 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points. 

Delaware Republicans haven't coalesced behind Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R), who continues to trail Democrat Chris Coons in two new polls.

Only 68 percent of likely Republican voters say they plan to back O'Donnell, according to Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Wednesday.

O'Donnell defeated Rep. Mike Castle, a party stalwart, in last month's GOP Senate primary. Castle declined to endorse her after the vote.

Meanwhile, Democrats are united behind Coons — 85 percent of the party's likely voters said that they will vote for him in November.

"Typically, Republicans are more loyal to their party than Democrats," Dan Cassino, a professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University and a survey analyst, said in a statement. "This hesitation by Republicans is hurting O'Donnell."

Overall, Coons leads O'Donnell 53 percent to 36 percent, but he's in a statistical dead heat with Coons in Kent and Sussex counties. In the state's biggest county, New Castle, Coons leads by a margin of 58 percent to 31 percent.

The university polled 801 randomly selected likely Delaware voters by telephone from Sept. 27 through Oct. 3. The survey has margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A University of Delaware poll released Tuesday found 49 percent of registered voters supporting Coons and 30 percent supporting O'Donnell.

A new poll shows a large percentage of voters have yet to choose a candidate in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

Republican Pat Toomey remains out front of Democrat Joe Sestak, but 14 percent of likely voters said they're undecided in a new Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Tuesday.

Toomey led by 7 points, taking 45 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Sestak. A McClatchy-Marist poll released last week showed Toomey leading the Democrat 51 percent to 42.

Democrats clearly believe this race is still winnable. President Obama travels Sunday to Philadelphia  for an event with Sestak. Obama's visit, however, could be a mixed blessing. Of those surveyed, 52 percent said they disapprove of his job performance.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll surveyed 577 likely voters and was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 4. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Meanwhile, Sestak's campaign announced a major fundraising haul in the third quarter. Sestak raised more than $3.2 million between July 1 and Sept. 30, his campaign announced Tuesday. His campaign did not reveal its cash on hand and Sestak's new Federal Election Commission report has yet to be made available online. Toomey, meanwhile, said he raised $3.8 million -- topping Sestak by more than a half million dollars in the last quarter.

--Updated at 3:55 p.m. and 7:11 p.m. and 2:48 p.m. on Oct. 8