Polls

New numbers out Thursday from the Pew Research Center show that independent voters are more motivated than usual for a midterm election and that they've turned against the party in power.  

The Pew poll gave Republicans a 7-point edge on the generic ballot question among all likely voters--50 percent to 43 percent. Among independents the lead is 13 percent. 

Pew's conclusion: "The Republican Party holds a significant edge in preferences for the upcoming congressional election among likely voters, in large part because political independents now favor Republican candidates by about as large a margin as they backed Barack Obama in 2008 and congressional Democratic candidates four years ago."

It's more bad polling news for Democrats with independent voters about as likely as Democrats to say they will definitely vote this fall. Among that highly motivated group of independents, 64 percent told Pew they plan to vote Republican.

While independents are largely unsupportive of the current Democratic leadership in Washington, they demonstrate no longterm allegiance to the GOP. A full 53 percent of independents said they are distrustful of both major parties. 

The survey polled 2,816 registered voters, including 2,053 voters considered the most likely to vote on Election Day.  

Democrats are ahead by 1 point on the generic ballot, but Republicans still lead handily in voter enthusiasm.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has a single-digit lead over her little-known Republican opponent and less than 50 percent of likely voters say in a poll released Thursday that they plan to vote for her.

Gillibrand tops her Republican opponent, former state Rep. Joseph DioGuardi 48-42 percent in the latest Qunnipiac poll, its first of likely voters this cycle.

Both candidates enjoy more than 80 percent support from their own parties, but independents narrowly favor DioGuardi 42-41 percent.

The poll comes one day after a Quinnipiac poll showed Tea Party-backed gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino within 6 points of Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the heavily favored Democratic nominee.

Republicans had difficulty recruiting a top-tier challenger to run against Gillibrand, an appointed senator who was viewed as vulnerable by many political observers.

Even though the poll shows Gillibrand in a closer race than some expected, the result also shows ample room for movement. Gillibrand has a 49-37 percent job approval rating and a 43-32 percent favorability rating, but 61 percent of likely voters say they have not heard enough about DioGuardi to form an opinion of him.

"New York has two Democratic U.S. senators, and the numbers suggest it's likely to stay that way," Quinnipiac University polling director Maurice Carroll said. "Sen. Charles Schumer has a commanding lead, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is closing in on the magic 50 percent point. But DioGuardi makes a race of it against her, even though three-fifths of New Yorkers don't know much about him."

A Siena poll released later Tusday showed both Cuomo and Gillibrand in much better shape. The survey of registered voters, not likely voters, has Cuomo leading Paladino by 33 points and Gillibrand leading DioGuardi by 24 points.

The Quinnipiac poll, which surveyed 751 New York State likely voters from Sept. 16-20, has margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

-- This post was updated at 10:32 a.m.

Two-term Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) is down big to former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), according to a new poll out Thursday on the race in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.

The new Franklin and Marshall poll gives Murphy a 14-point lead among likely voters in a race that's a rematch of the 2006 contest in the district in which Murphy first ousted Fitzpatrick during a favorable year for Democrats. 

Fitzpatrick leads Murphy 49 percent to 35 percent among likely voters in the poll.

President Obama's popularity is also a factor in this race. Even though Obama won the 8th District over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) two years ago, his approval rating is now less than 40 percent in the district. 

Murphy had an easy go of it in 2008, winning reelection with 57 percent of the vote over Republican Tom Manion. But Fitzpatrick poses a much tougher test for the incumbent this fall. Murphy defeated Fitzpatrick by less than 2,000 votes to win his first term in '06.

Fitzpatrick has already been the beneficiary of help from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which launched an independent expenditure ad targeting Murphy last week.

Delaware Democrat Chris Coons leads in that state's Senate race and he could have Republican voters to thank for it, according to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday.

The survey found that Coons leads Republican Christine O'Donnell, 55 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. The margin was higher among registered voters, where  Coons' led O'Donnell by 25 points.

And the poll found a small but significant chunk of Republican voters may be putting Coons over the top.

"CNN has conducted polls in nine other Senate races this fall, and the Democratic candidate has never gotten double-digit support among Republicans in any of them. But 15 percent of Delaware Republicans are choosing Coons. That may not sound like much, but in today's polarized political environment, it's a big advantage that any Democrat would like to have," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland told the network.

Last week O'Donnell upset party-backed candidate Mike Castle in the Republican primary. But the CNN/Time poll finds that if Castle had won the primary, he would be leading Coon's 55 percent to 37 percent in the general election matchup.

The poll was conducted September 17-21, with 1,366 registered voters in Delaware, including 703 likely voters. The sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for registered voters and 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.

These numbers are on track with those in a Tuesday Fox News poll, which found O'Donnell trailed Coons by 15 points, with Coons at 54 percent to O’Donnell’s 39 percent.

With polls showing him running third in Florida's three-way Senate contest, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) is bringing in another big-name Democrat for help.

Al Gore will campaign with Meek on Sept. 30 in Tampa, Meek's campaign announced Wednesday. 

The congressman said he was "honored" to receive help from the former vice president.

"Together, we'll show Floridians that there is just one candidate who will stand up for Florida's environment and middle-class families in this state," he said in a statement.

Meek has already gotten help from former President Clinton and President Obama. Democrats want to sure up his base of support to prevent Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) from eating into it.

In a recent Fox News poll, Crist drew 27 percent of likely voters, Republican Marco Rubio got 43 percent support and Meek came in third with 21 percent.

Democrats are getting more bullish about unseating Rep. Dan Lungren. The California Republican has less than 50 percent support in a new poll that shows Democrat Ami Bera within single digits.

Lungren took 46 percent to 38 percent for Bera in the Public Policy Polling survey for the Daily Kos. But the Republican had a 46 percent unfavorable rating, compared to 39 percent who viewed him favorably. Respondents were split 20-20 on favorability on the Democrat.

But Bera, a first-time candidate, has room to grow. He was unknown to 60 percent of the 617 respondents.

The poll was conducted Sep.t 18-19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

Bera is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue program and one of his party's top prospects this cycle.

He held a financial advantage over Lungren as of the last reporting period. The Republican incumbent reported having $800,000 in cash on hand at the end of June, compared to $1.14 million for Bera.


The congressman spent more than $1.3 million on his reelection in 2008.

New numbers out Tuesday from Quinnipiac University show former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) with a 7-point edge over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) in Pennsylvania's Senate race.  

Toomey leads 50 percent to 43 percent in the new poll, mostly thanks to a healthy lead among independents. Toomey holds a 54 percent to 36 percent with that group.

President Obama's approval numbers in the state are likely dragging Sestak down a bit, too. A full 56 percent of likely voters said they disapprove of the job the president is doing. 

And by a margin of 52-43 percent, voters said they want a Senator who opposes the president's policies. 

The numbers also show a sizable gender gap in the race with Toomey ahead 58-37 percent among men and Sestak leading with female voters 51-40 percent.  

The numbers track with the latest Rasmussen poll, which gives Toomey an 8-point lead. 

On Monday, President Obama was in the state to raise money for Sestak, telling voters the congressman is "not one of the insiders who's been part of the problem. He's been solving problems in Washington."

A new poll shows New York Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) leading businessman Richard Hanna (R), but the party isn't taking that lead for granted.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Tuesday released a TV ad hitting Hanna for, among other things, his position on Social Security.

Arcuri led Hanna 48 percent to 40 percent in a Siena Research Institute poll released Monday. However, the poll of 605 likely voters — the first independent survey of the race — had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent. Arcuri defeated Hanna by only 4 percent in 2008.

The special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) was supposed to be a cakewalk for Gov. Joe Manchin (D), but new numbers released Tuesday show the popular governor in a dead heat with Republican businessman John Raese. 

The poll from Public Policy gives Raese a lead over Manchin 46 percent to 43 percent. A full 10 percent of likely voters remain undecided. While that lead is within the margin of error, the numbers do suggest some serious problems for Manchin. 

Despite Manchin's personal popularity — pollster Tom Jensen notes that Manchin's approval is second only to Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-La.) — the governor is being dragged down by low ratings for President Obama and national Democrats. 

The president's approval rating stands at just 30 percent in West Virginia, and 57 percent of likely voters said they think the national Democratic Party is "too liberal."

"These poll numbers show a much more favorable race for Raese than anything that's been released publicly to date, so I'd suggest caution in declaring too much momentum for the Republicans in West Virginia before other data confirms it," Jensen wrote. "But one thing is definitely clear: this race is not going to be a slam dunk for Democrats as might have been hoped at one time."

After Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) passed on a Senate run earlier this year, it was expected that Manchin would have an easy road to the Senate, but Raese has spent heavily on TV ads tying Manchin to the president and Democrats in Washington.