The special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) was supposed to be a cakewalk for Gov. Joe Manchin (D), but new numbers released Tuesday show the popular governor in a dead heat with Republican businessman John Raese.
The poll from Public Policy gives Raese a lead over Manchin 46 percent to 43 percent. A full 10 percent of likely voters remain undecided. While that lead is within the margin of error, the numbers do suggest some serious problems for Manchin.
Despite Manchin's personal popularity — pollster Tom Jensen notes that Manchin's approval is second only to Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-La.) — the governor is being dragged down by low ratings for President Obama and national Democrats.
The president's approval rating stands at just 30 percent in West Virginia, and 57 percent of likely voters said they think the national Democratic Party is "too liberal."
"These poll numbers show a much more favorable race for Raese than anything that's been released publicly to date, so I'd suggest caution in declaring too much momentum for the Republicans in West Virginia before other data confirms it," Jensen wrote. "But one thing is definitely clear: this race is not going to be a slam dunk for Democrats as might have been hoped at one time."
After Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) passed on a Senate run earlier this year, it was expected that Manchin would have an easy road to the Senate, but Raese has spent heavily on TV ads tying Manchin to the president and Democrats in Washington.
There's new evidence to support Democrats' claims that Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) is running a strong reelection campaign.
A new poll shows the two-term incumbent leading former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) — albeit by a single point.
Mitchell had 45 percent support to 44 percent for Schweikert, with 6 percent for Libertarian Nick Coons and 5 percent undecided, in an internal poll obtained by the Ballot Box.
Harstad Strategic Research, a Colorado-based firm, conducted the survey of 509 likely voters Sept. 13-16. The firm's polling memo does not state the poll's margin of error.
An earlier National Research Inc. poll showed Mitchell trailing Schweikert 46 percent to 38 percent.
Democratic strategists are pleased with the results of the survey in light of the aggressive TV ads that have been run in the district against Mitchell.
The conservative-leaning 60 Plus Association and Americans for Prosperity both ran ads against Mitchell starting after the primary in August.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had reserved $1.2 million worth of TV airtime in the Phoenix market, but has since scaled that back based on the strength of Mitchell and their other incumbents.
Democrats have released a plethora of internal polls recently to counter the narrative of a GOP wave election.
Republicans are confident about winning several House races in New York this cycle, and Rep. John Hall's (D) is one of them.
Hall faces Republican Nan Hayworth, who's running on the GOP, Conservative and Independence lines. In addition to facing united conservative opposition, Hall is also being hit in a TV ad by Revere America, the group founded by former Gov. George Pataki (R) to campaign against the Democrats' healthcare bill.
The ad warns that "government-run healthcare" will lead to "longer waits in doctors' offices," among other things.
"Those who voted for the bloated healthcare bill will now feel the heat for supporting a bill the American people didn’t want," Pataki said in a statement.
Some Democratic activists have grumbled that their side isn't putting significant resources behind positive healthcare messaging. Meanwhile, support for the party's landmark legislation is eroding.
Support for healthcare reform fell seven points in August to 43 percent, while 45 percent of the public have unfavorable views of the bill, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll for August.
Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell will be in Washington Friday to speak at a major gathering of conservative activists.
O’Donnell was added to the afternoon program at the Values Voter Summit after her surprise victory over Rep. Mike Castle in the Delaware GOP Senate primary on Tuesday.
Her appearance comes as a new poll shows her trailing Democrat Chris Coons by 11 points. Coons took 53 percent of the vote to 42 percent for O'Donnell in a Rasmussen Reports poll out Thursday. Only 4 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
The Sept. 15 survey of 500 likely Delaware voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
A new poll released by Rock the Vote on Wednesday showed that in spite of growing cynicism among young voters, 77 percent are planning to go to the polls in November.
Pollsters attribute this enthusiasm from the group's overwhelming confidence (83 percent) that their generation can successfully reform the country, even though 59 percent say they are more cynical about politics than they were in 2008.
Looking toward the midterms, a majority of voters are paying close attention to the races. In spite of some growth in the GOP's overall favorability, President Obama has maintained his appeal among young voters, with half saying that his endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. Only 26 percent said the same about former Alaska Gov. and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R).
On individual issues, young people are most concerned about unemployment (96 percent), the national debt (93 percent) and the influence of special interests on politics (86 percent).
Observers note that the data reveal opportunities for all candidates to make inroads with younger voters.
"The top concerns of these voters are the same pocketbook issues that are the focus of nearly every Republican candidate in the country," says conservative pollster Brian Nienaber, who worked on the survey. "Thoughtful messaging and appropriate targeting could yield a significant level of support with these voters."
Progressive pollster John Anzalone, who also worked on the survey, said the same was true for Democrats.
"Since moderates and independents are leaning Republican going into the November midterms, Democrats should appeal once again to the young people ages 18 to 29, who have not given up on them since the 2008 election," he said. "Candidates who neglect young people are taking a major risk, as they will be the swing group for either party in 2010."
The margin of error for the results is +/- 3.7 points.
Republicans regained their lead over Democrats in Gallup's weekly generic ballot poll after falling back into a tie last week.
Forty-eight percent of registered voters said they prefer Republican congressional candidates compared to 43 percent who said they back Democratic office-seekers, according to the survey released Monday.
Last week's tie represented the first time in the previous five weeks the GOP did not lead in the poll, which is a key indicator of voters' mood heading into election season. Poll results have been volatile: The week before last, Republicans held a 51-point to 41-point advantage over Democrats, a lead Gallup called "unprecedented."
Republicans continued to lead Democrats in voter enthusiasm measures. Ninety-six percent of Republicans said they would vote for a GOP candidate, the highest amount all year, compared to 90 percent of Democrats who said they would vote for a Democrat.
The number of Republicans who said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting in this year's congressional elections jumped 3 percentage points to 49 percent. Democratic enthusiasm also ticked up from 23 to 31 percent, but the party is still 18 points behind the GOP.
The poll, conducted between Sept. 6-12, has a 4 percent margin of error.
A large conservative advocacy group aligned with the Tea Party movement stayed out of the Delaware Senate race over concerns about Republican Christine O'Donnell's candidacy.
"We stayed out of that race because we're not convinced that Christine O'Donnell can win," Matt Kibbe, the president of FreedomWorks, told reporters Monday.
O'Donnell had a slim lead over Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) in one of the final polls before voting starts Tuesday. She was ahead 47-44 in a Public Policy Polling survey of likely Republican primary voters conducted Sept. 11-12. That lead, however, falls within the poll's margin of error.
Kibbe said if Castle loses, it raises the question, "does he deserve to win the general?"
"What the Tea Party activists have really asked for is an open primary where their candidates get a chance to run and compete and prove themselves or lose," he said.
During the breakfast sponsored by TheChristian Science Monitor, reporters asked Dick Armey, who chairs FreedomWorks, if it was better to lose with a Tea Party candidate than win with a mainstream Republican. "No, and I don't think the Tea Party activists would give you a different answer," he said. "Massachusetts and New Jersey proves that."
The Tea Party movement has been growing in size and influence since it helped influence the outcome in a string of Republican Senate and House primaries. Kibbe said the next step for the national coalition of anti-government activists was to pursue "fiscal conservative policy."
"The next step in the growth of the Tea Party movement is finding legislative champions ... that develop a positive set of ideas that actually become real fiscal, conservative policy," he said. "And that's not an easy thing to do."
There could be an upset in the Delaware GOP Senate primary, according to a new poll out Sunday.
Republican Christine O’Donnell has a slim lead over Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) with only 24 hours before voting starts. O'Donnell was ahead 47-44 in the survey of 668 likely Republican primary voters on Sept. 11-12. That lead, however, falls within the poll's margin of error.
Castle led 69-21 among centrist voters, which is the group his campaign isfocusing on turning out. O'Donnell led 62-31 with conservative voters.
The PPP poll from New Hampshire didn't suggest an upset was as likely there. Establishment favorite Kelly Ayotte (R) led the GOP Senate primary field with 37 percent of the vote. Former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne had 30 percent and businessman Bill Binnie was third with 13 percent.
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