Polls

Just a day after a Gallup poll found Democrats and Republicans even on the generic ballot question, a poll Wednesday gives the GOP a 7-point advantage.

The new poll from Democracy Corps, the Democratic group headed by James Carville and Stan Greenberg, found a generic ballot edge for Republicans among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent. 

The Democracy Corps poll also measured President Obama's approval at 45 percent. The poll was conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 2. Gallup's poll was in the field from Aug. 30 to Sept. 5.     

Gallup's numbers Tuesday had the parties tied at 46 percent on the generic ballot question. A week ago, Gallup found a 10-point edge for the GOP, which was the most significant advantage it has measured for either party in a midterm election since it began asking the question in 1942. 

It's hard to see Gallup's Tuesday numbers as a glimmer of hope for Democrats, given that Gallup is still surveying registered voters as opposed to likely voters. 

The two other major public polls released Tuesday — the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and the ABC/Washington Post poll — both found Republican leads on the generic ballot question using a likely voter screen.

Democracy Corps measured both likely voters and what it termed "drop off voters" — those who voted in 2008 but are unlikely to vote this fall. 

Among the "drop off" voter group, Democrats hold a 47-40 lead on the generic ballot question. But among likely voters, Republicans lead 49-42.

Say goodbye to the 10-point lead Republicans enjoyed in last week's Gallup poll of generic congressional preferences. 

Another Republican internal poll shows a Democratic incumbent running behind a GOP challenger.

Republicans are touting numbers from Public Opinion Strategies that show state Rep. Sandy Adams (R) ahead of Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.) 49 percent to 37 percent. 

The Kosmas campaign dismissed the internal as a "partisan poll," in a statement to the St. Petersburg Times.  

Adams, who narrowly emerged from a crowded Republican primary field last month, does stand at a major financial disadvantage ahead of November with Kosmas sitting on $1.3 million cash on hand as of her last campaign filing.   

Nationally, the two campaign committees are in an internal polling war. The National Republican Congressional Committee has drawn attention to a slew of polls in recent weeks highlighting solid numbers for its candidates across the country. 

The IE arm of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fired back Tuesday unveiling positive internals for a handful of incumbents targeted by the GOP, including Reps. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Bobby Bright (D-Ala.).  

Freshman Rep. Travis Childers has a 5-point lead on his Republican challenger going into the pivotal post-Labor Day stretch of the campaign, according to an internal poll done for the Mississippi Democrat.

Childers led state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) 46 to 41 percent in the Anzalone Liszt Research poll obtained by The Ballot Box. The Democratic firm surveyed 400 likely voters in the district Aug. 30 to Sept. 1. The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent, which means Childers' lead could be razor thin.

A recent poll for Nunnelee's campaign had the Republican ahead 50 to 42 percent.

Overall, Childers remains well liked by his constituents, according to the new poll, which had him higher than 50 percent in two key categories. The Democrat had a 57 percent favorable rating and a 54 percent job approval rating.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved airtime in Mississippi's first district, but those resources could be directed elsewhere. Party strategists are giving vulnerable incumbents two weeks to prove they're worth the investment, according to The New York Times.

"Every campaign cycle the DCCC and other campaign committees face difficult resource allocation decisions and this election cycle is no different," Chris Van Hollen, the committee's chairman, said in a recent statement. 

The Illinois Senate race is tied with less than two months to go before Election Day.

A new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll had Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) both getting 34 percent in the statewide survey of 600 likely voters. The poll, which was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 1., also found there was 22 percent undecided.

One troubling sign for Democrats: Kirk led Giannoulias 34 percent to 23 with independents. But Giannoulias had an advantage over Kirk among African-American voters, 58 percent to 3, with 26 percent undecided.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee recently pledged $3.4 million to bolster Kirk's campaign. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said the Democrats won't make a similar committement to Giannoulias.

A new Public Policy poll offers some reason to doubt former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) impact on Alaska's Republican Senate primary. 

Palin endorsed Tea Party-backed Joe Miller (R), and the candidate credited her with his strong showing against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) last Tuesday. Miller is clinging to a lead of less than 2,000 votes as the counting of some 24,000 remaining ballots is about to get under way in Anchorage.  

But the poll found only 15 percent of those who voted for Miller called Palin's endorsement "very important" in determining their vote choice. A full 59 percent said Palin's backing of Miller didn't matter at all.

The more pressing factor appears to be concern among Alaska Republicans that the party is moving too far to the left. The poll found 47 percent of primary voters labeled Murkowski "too liberal." Among that group, 85 percent voted for Miller.  

"Joe Miller's victory was driven by conservatives who think their party and more specifically Lisa Murkowski have gotten too liberal," pollster Tom Jensen writes. "Tea Party identification in Alaska is actually not that high, but Miller's advantage with that group was so overwhelming it gave him the win. Palin's endorsement certainly helped Miller, and it's unlikely he could have won without it, but it doesn't appear to have been the driving force in his upset."

Of course the upset isn't complete just yet. The Murkowski camp is still holding out hope that thousands of yet to be counted absentee ballots will close the gap with Miller.   

A new poll shows Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk with solid support in his party's geographic base. 

Kirk led Democrat Alexi Giannoulias 45 to 23 percent in a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for Rep. John Shimkus's (R-Ill.) campaign. The Aug. 24-25 survey of 400 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. There was 22 percent undecided in the 19th district, which spans much of the more conservative, southern half of the state.

Giannoulias is expected to need upwards of $4 million to maintain a statewide TV ad campaign in the final month of the race. But much of that money won't be coming from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, according to Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.). 

After a speech in Chicago on Monday, Durbin told reporters Democrats would not match the $3.4 million that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has pledged to Kirk.

 "The amount of money being spent by the Republican side [this campaign cycle] is overwhelming," Durbin said, according to Crain's Chicago Business.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) was supposed to have an easy road to the Senate once Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) decided against challenging him in November's special election.

But the latest Rasmussen poll on the race shows Republican businessman John Raese within six points of the popular governor.

Manchin is running in a special election to fill out the remainder of the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) term.

The new poll gives Manchin 48 percent of the vote to Raese's 42. Another 4 percent prefer another candidate, and 7 percent remain undecided. The survey polled 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.

An earlier Rasmussen poll on the special election had Manchin up 51-35.

Even though he holds just a six-point edge, Manchin's overall approval is high. The poll found that 70 percent of likely voters approve of the job Manchin is doing as governor.

So what's dragging Manchin down? Rasmussen suggests it's President Obama's unpopularity in the state, which Manchin's Republican opponent has made the hallmark of his campaign. Raese, who is expected to pour plenty of his own money into the campaign, has already run TV ads hitting the president.

Among the 34 percent of voters who just "somewhat approve" of the job Manchin is doing as governor, 64 percent strongly disapprove of the president's performance. Raese also holds a 45-40 edge among unaffiliated voters in the state.

The Raese campaign quickly trumpeted the results of the poll in an e-mail blast, while Manchin's camp dismissed Rasmussen as a "Republican pollster."

Republicans have taken a 10-point lead on the generic ballot question in Gallup's latest tracking poll — the largest lead either party has ever held ahead of a midterm election since Gallup began asking the question in 1942.

The GOP leads 51 percent to 41 among registered voters, and Republicans are up four points from last week's tracking numbers.

Gallup notes that prior to 2010, the largest advantage for Republicans on the generic ballot question came in the summer of 2002 and 1994, when the party held a five-point edge. Republicans gained seats in both of those years, taking back control of Congress for the first time in decades in '94.

"The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall's midterm congressional elections," writes Gallup's Frank Newport, who said the numbers suggest 2010 could be a major wave election for the GOP.

"Republicans' presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major 'wave' election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House," writes Newport.

One caveat Gallup does include in its analysis is that Democrats were actually ahead on the generic ballot question earlier this summer, so there is enough volatility in the electorate for things to shift ahead of November.

But as Nate Silver notes, the deficit is significant, and could be even larger than it seems. Gallup is still polling registered voters, as opposed to likely voters. The pollster will shift to likely voters closer to the fall.

Silver writes: "At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve found that the gap between registered and likely voter polls this year is about 4 points in the Republicans’ favor — so a 10-point lead in a registered voter poll is the equivalent of about 14 points on a likely-voter basis."

— Updated at 9:10 a.m.

Rep. Harry Teague (D-N.M.) holds a slim lead over former Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), according to a new poll.

Teague, a first term lawmaker who won the seat when Pearce ran for the Senate, leads the former lawmaker 45 percent to 42 percent, according to an Albuquerque Journal poll. In 2008, Pearce lost a Senate race and is running for his old House seat this cycle.

The poll found 13 percent of voters remain undecided in a district that leans Republican. Among self-described independent voters, Teague has 37 percent to Pearce's 33 percent. Teague is the first Democrat to hold the seat in 28 years.

The poll was conducted Aug. 23-27 by Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percent.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff told the paper that Teague's slight edge is good news for the incumbent, considering the current national political mood.

"Harry Teague surprised the world two years ago when he won in a Republican district," Sanderoff said. "Now we see that he is still hanging in there against a former incumbent in a conservative year in a conservative district. Basically, we have an incumbent running against a former incumbent — both of them are well-known — and the fact that Teague has an ever-so slight lead is encouraging for him."

But he also noted the number of undecided voters means the race could still break either way.
       
The poll also surveyed voters in the first congressional district where Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) is in the lead but Republican candidate Jon Barela is showing some gains.

Heinrich, also a first term lawmaker, led by 6 points — 47 percent to 41 percent.

"The good news for Heinrich is that he's ahead," Sanderoff told the paper. "The bad news is that he is the incumbent, and Jon Barela is just now getting himself known."

In the district, 12 percent of voters said they were undecided.

Among independent voters, Heinrich had 45 percent while Barela had 31 percent.

Sanderoff said that was a good sign for Heinrich because "independents are skewing conservative, and Republican this election cycle. But Heinrich at this point in time is doing well among independents. It will be a key group for him to hold onto."

Both Teague and Heinrich are Republican targets this cycle.