Polls

Meg Whitman has built a massive lead in the GOP Senate primary, and she also a small edge in the general election, according to a new poll.

The independent Field Poll shows Whitman with a 63-14 over state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner in the primary. In the general election, she leads state Attorney General Jerry Brown 46-43.

Whitman has gained double digits on both Brown and Poizner since the January Field Poll.

A competitive governor's race is good news for GOP efforts to unseat Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), but right now that governor's race is the much more attainable GOP goal.

Cal Cunningham, the hand-picked DSCC candidate to face Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), appears to be closing the gap in his primary.

A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey shows the former state senator and Iraq veteran within four points of Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who leads 20-16. Attorney Kenneth Lewis is at 11 percent.

A month ago, the same pollster had Marshall up 29-12. Marshall's campaign released a poll this week that showed her leading 31-5, but the poll was conducted in February, so it appears Cunningham has gained ground since then.

Cunningham suffers from a lack of name ID and has been stuck in the single-digits in most polling on the race. But Marshall's candidacy does nothing for national Democrats, who fought hard to recruit another candidate for the race.

Marshall has struggled to raise money for the race, so it will be tough for her to hold a lead if things get close. There's also the matter of whether the DSCC needs to get involved (like it did on behalf of now-Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley in his 2008 primary) to get its preferred candidate through the primary.

(Side note: PPP did a poll for Marshall's campaign this cycle, but the last two polls were both conducted independently.

UPDATE: I should have also noted that PPP president Dean Debnam has contributed to Cunningham's campaign. PPP is a Democratic-leaning firm based in North Carolina, so these ties aren't out-of-the-blue. But they should be noted.)

When it comes to the Pennsylvania Senate race, it really depends upon whom you ask.

After a pair of polls showing Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) leading former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) came out last week, a new one shows Toomey right back in the lead.

Susquehanna has Toomey ahead 42-36. The same poll in October had Specter up 42-41. The October poll tested registered voters, which has generally cast Specter in a better light, while the newer poll was conducted among likely voters.

Specter's primary opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), was not tested in either a Democratic primary or the general election, for some reason.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) appears to have a real primary on his hands.

Public Policy Polling (D) is out with a poll showing former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff within six points of Bennet, trailing 40-34.

Romanoff is also looking for a bump in the state's precinct caucuses, which begin Tuesday. A solid poll like this could be what he needs to prove to people that he has a chance, amidst some less-than-stellar fundraising.

On the GOP side, things are more wide open. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton leads Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck 34-17, while 7 percent go for former state Sen. Tom Wiens.

A new poll shows Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) trailing former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) by 12 points, 51-39.

Maybe that Quinnipiac poll wasn't an outlier.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) has overtaken former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in a second-straight poll, showing a 47-41 lead in a Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos.

Quinnipiac had Specter up 49-42 last week, but the two polls are the first since October to show the incumbent with a lead. Toomey had shown leads upwards of double digits in some polls.

It's hard to see what might have provided Specter with such a bump, but his favorability numbers have rebounded remarkably. Research 2000 has him at 48 percent favorability. Late last year, he was stuck in the 30s with high unfavorables.

Specter holds a 51-32 lead over Rep. Joe Sestak in their May 18 primary. Toomey leads Sestak 42-39 in another potential general election matchup.

Former Colorado Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) is in a statistical tie with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) heading into their party's precinct caucuses next week, according to a Public Policy Polling (D) survey.

The Colorado Senate race has lacked much in the way on non-Rasmussen polling. While that firm has shown Norton with a significant lead on Bennet, the new PPP survey and a January Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos have shown the race effectively tied.

PPP has both candidates at 43 percent while Research 2000 had Bennet up 40-39.

First, though, both Norton and Bennet face key tests when party activists begin weighing in next week. Bennet is facing a primary challenge from state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who could make a strong showing in the caucuses. Norton could also face some anti-establishment fervor, with Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck beating her in a series of recent straw polls.

Precincts caucuses eventually lead to a state assembly, where Romanoff or Buck could get a boost with a win.

Romanoff leads Norton 44-39 in a prospective general election matchup.

It might be time to start calling former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) the early frontrunner in the California GOP Senate primary.

Campbell leads Carly Fiorina 33-24 in a new poll. The Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos joins multiple polls now have shown Campbell beginning the race with a significant lead.

It's early, though, and Fiorina is likely to vastly outspend Campbell. We saw her campaign recently go after Campbell with the notorious "Demon Sheep" ad, and it has also accused him of having ties to terrorists.

It's also notable that Chuck DeVore, who is languishing in the single digits, recently told the AP that he has continued to focus his attacks on Fiorina because he views Campbell as the stronger general election candidate.

Campbell also performs best in the general election, trailing Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) 47-43, while Fiorina trails her 49-40.

Fiorina and DeVore both show net-negative favorability ratings, while Campbell's approval (46 percent) is nine points higher than his disapproval (37 percent).

Mitt Romney is the man to beat in Florida and Colorado, according to new polling from Public Policy Polling (D).

PPP finds Romney, in a three-way race with Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin, leading by wide margins in both states.

Florida: Romney 52, Huckabee 21, Palin 18

Colorado: Romney 44, Palin 25, Huckabee 17

We have confirmation of the Public Policy Polling (D) survey that showed Marco Rubio doubling up Charlie Crist.

Now InsiderAdvantage (for the Florida Times-Union) shows Rubio ahead by a similar margin -- 60-26, rather than PPP's 60-28.

One poll can be an outlier. But now we are forced to believe that Crist's 50-point lead has turned into a 30-point deficit.