Polls

Another poll shows Charlie Crist would be better off running as an independent.

Public Policy Polling (D), which on Tuesday showed Crist trailing Marco Rubio 60-28 in the GOP Senate primary in Florida, now shows Crist running a much-closer second in a three-way general election matchup between him, Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.).

The poll has Rubio holding his lead at 34 percent, with Crist at 27 percent and Meek at 25 percent. It echoes a January poll by Republican pollsters Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates that showed Rubio at 31, Crist at 26 and Meek at 24.

In a straight Rubio-versus-Meek race, PPP has Rubio leading 44-39, which is notably his smallest margin since late last year. PPP also notes that there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans in that matchup, so the race could close even more.

Democrats think this race is becoming more and more competitive as Crist implodes, and they appear to have a point.

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) is the latest Democrat on the short end of a poll.

Connolly's 2008 opponent, Keth Fimian, released a poll Tuesday showing the incumbent trailing 40-35 in a head-to-head matchup. The McLaughlin and Associates poll surveyed 300 likely votes in late February and early March and showed Fimian ahead 43-28 among independents.

Connolly dispatched Fimian 55-43 in 2008, but the district went even more for President Obama -- 57-42. It was hard to see this race emerging as a top target at the start of the cycle, but Fimian has plenty of money and looks to be making this a race. And the man Connolly replaced, former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), has said districts like his old one should be in play for the GOP.

Of course, first Fimian has to deal with the matter of a June 8 primary with Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity.

UPDATE: Democrats note that Fimian released a poll in July 2008 (when nobody knew who he was and Connolly was well-known), showing him trailing Connolly by just four, 29-25. He wound up losing by 12.

In another worrisome sign for Democrats, a greater number of young Republican voters are prepared to vote this year.

Marco Rubio's lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race has grown to more than 30 points, according to a new Public Policy Polling (D) survey.

PPP shows Rubio leading Crist 60-28, including 71-17 among conservatives. It is by far the worst public polling Crist has seen, and casts tremendous doubt on whether he can win the GOP primary.

Self-described "moderates" who are likely to vote in the primary go for Crist 49-36 — an indication of how much better off Crist might be as an independent candidate.

Crist's approval rating as governor stands at just 29 percent among GOP primary voters, who are much happier having state Attorney General Bill McCollum as their nominee. In fact, 56 percent of GOP primary voters say they would prefer Crist didn't run for either Senate or governor.

UPDATE: Crist spokeswoman Andrew Saul responds: "Ultimately, elections are about choices: this election will come down to the choice between an honest public servant with a strong conservative record in Charlie Crist and a Miami lobbyist-politician Marco Rubio, who has traded on his connections for everything from $135 haircuts to fat lobbying deals. Charlie Crist will win this race and win it decisively."

Republicans seem to have all the momentum, but Democrats still hold the edge on the generic ballot, according to Gallup.

The latest Gallup poll shows voters still prefer Democrats to Republicans when it comes to their congressional district, 47-44.

The difference here appears to be that those 44 percent who will vote for Republicans are a lot more pumped up to do so. But if those Democratic-leaning voters find some reason to vote, maybe Democrats can avoid huge losses.

Things are going from bad to worse for Charlie Crist.

According to Tom Jensen over at Public Policy Polling (D):

We are going to have absolutely brutal numbers out on Charlie Crist tomorrow.

Here's a little preview: among Republican primary voters 19% would like to see him as Governor a year from now, 14% want him in the Senate, and 56% want him out of elected office.

If there is any path to his winning office in Florida again -- and there may not be -- it's as something other than a Republican.

There's lots and lots of time left, but it's hard to see how a GOP primary ends well for Crist. His campaign insists running as an independent is out of the question, but in the face of polling numbers like these, it would be professional malpractice not to at least consider it.

Kentucky primary voters appear to be spurning the establishment.

Anti-establishment candidates Rand Paul and Daniel Mongiardo have opened up wide leads in their respective Senate primaries, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

The survey shows Paul, an eye surgeon and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), leading Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson 42-27 on the GOP side and Mongiardo, the state's lieutenant governor, leading Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway 45-27 among Democrats.

The poll also reinforced the toss-up nature of the general election, with Republicans holding a statistically insignificant 43-42 lead on the generic ballot.

Results of head-to-head general election matchups were not provided in the poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 likely primary voters overall and was conducted for local media outlets.

All four candidates recently went up with their first TV ads. The primary is set for May 18.

We've said before that 2012 will be a very difficult year for Senate Democrats. They have only a couple real targets on the map and will be defending about two dozen seats overall -- many of which could be competitive.

DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) could be in one of them.

A new Fairleigh-Dickinson poll shows Menendez leading 2006 GOP nominee Tom Kean Jr. within the margin of error, 39-38, in a potential rematch. The poll shows Menendez with a 29 percent favorability, compared to 25 percent unfavorable. Kean's split is 28-11.

Menendez holds a more comfortable lead -- 43-25 -- over state Sen. Mike Doherty.

Many Blue Dogs are in trouble, but Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) doesn't appear to be one of them.

Despite representing a district where President Obama has a 27 percent approval rating, Boren has a 51 percent approval rating, with just 33 percent of voters disapproving, according to a new Public Policy Polling (D) survey.

He also leads every Republican he is facing by at least 16 points. With no top candidates having signed up to face him, Boren is a strong bet for reelection. He is under 50 percent -- which is generally not a good sign for an incumbent -- but voters aren't picking Republicans on party affiliation alone, as none of them breaks 30 percent in the poll.

Without a well-funded candidate to run against Boren, it's hard to see him not adding a few points and cracking 50 percent.

We keep seeing this over and over again: when Democrats vote the right way, they tend to be OK. Reps. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) and Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) have been shown to be reasonably strong in early polling, and it shouldn't surprise that a popular true Blue Dog like Boren is holding it down in a tough district.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) led former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) 50-19 before he dropped out of the race Monday, according to a new Marist poll.

The poll shows Ford would have faced a steep climb, but it also shows Gillibrand's campaign was off to a good start in their primary.

The last Marist poll, from one month ago, showed Gillibrand with a considerably smaller lead -- 44-27 -- meaning that the offensive against Ford was paying dividends on both ends, bringing Gilliband up and bringing Ford down.

It is the first time Gillibrand has cracked 50 percent in a primary poll.

In the general election, she is also over 50 percent against Mort Zuckerman and declared GOP candidate Bruce Blakeman. She leads Zuckerman 59-26 and Blakeman 58-28 in a pair of general election matchups.